A House Divided

Cyril Ramaphosa has waited more than twenty years for this moment. Earlier this week, the union organizer-cum-business magnate—who is worth an estimated $450 million, making him one of South Africa’s wealthiest men—finally clinched the presidency of the ruling African National Congress (ANC). As ANC President, Ramaphosa is likely to become South Africa’s next president when elections are held in 2019—if not sooner, should he choose to oust sitting President Jacob Zuma like Zuma ousted Thabo Mbeki in 2008.

Ramaphosa’s victory comes more than two decades after he was passed over for Mbeki as Mandela’s successor—a move that sent Ramaphosa into the world of business where he licked his wounds, made his fortune, and planned his eventual comeback. After three years as Jacob Zuma’s Deputy President, Ramaphosa is now the leading candidate for South Africa’s top job.

The markets cheered and the rand rallied when Ramaphosa was named ANC President, reflecting his reputation as a pro-business reformer. But the challenges before him are legion, and even a politician of Ramaphosa’s considerable managerial prowess and charisma may not overcome them. Here are the questions Ramaphosa will have to answer: Can he unite the ANC? Will he oust Zuma as President of the Republic before 2019? Can he lead the party to victory in the 2019 elections? And even if he is elected, will Ramaphosa be able to deliver the reform South Africa desperately needs?

Uniting the Party

Ramaphosa’s opponent in the leadership race was Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the former Chairperson of the AU Commission. Dlamini-Zuma had the backing of the ANC Women’s League and Youth League, as well as the support of President Zuma, who is also her ex-husband. She lost by only about 170 delegates—that is, less than four percent.

That Ramaphosa triumphed narrowly over Dlamini-Zuma despite the sitting president and much of the party machinery supporting her suggests two things. First, Ramaphosa is a tireless campaigner who overcame early expectations of a Dlamini-Zuma win. Second, the Zuma faction remains strong and influential—so much so that it could thwart Ramaphosa’s desire to remake the party in his image.

The makeup of the ANC “Top Six” and National Executive Committee (NEC) is even more troubling for Ramaphosa. Zuma supporters make up half of the Top Six cadre. The other 80 members of the NEC are more or less evenly divided. As The Sunday Times explains:

Half of the Ramaphosa’s camp’s 80 preferred candidates who appeared on a list circulated at the ANC’s national conference in Johannesburg won election to the NEC. Forty-seven of those favored by the faction led by Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who lost to Ramaphosa in the party presidential race, were chosen. Seven of those picked were on both lists and their allegiances are unclear.

Ramaphosa is inheriting a house divided. Instead of delivering the decisive majority Ramaphosa needs to quickly unify the party, the ANC has crystallized its internal divisions in the composition of its top governing body. The Zuma camp appears to have performed better in the NEC election than in the leadership race; apparently Ramaphosa’s coattails were not long enough.

Whither Zuma?

Unless Ramaphosa manages to flip enough members of the NEC to his camp, the body’s composition is a recipe for paralysis on the most pressing issue for the ANC: Jacob Zuma’s future. Apart from the National Assembly, which is unlikely to hold another vote of no confidence after the motion failed this past August, the NEC is the only body that can force the ouster of President Zuma. As Ramaphosa is currently serving as South Africa’s Deputy President and would presumably become President if Zuma resigned, ousting Zuma is an attractive option for Ramaphosa.

Forcing Zuma out would help Ramaphosa distance himself from an unpopular incumbent of the same party who is widely perceived as corrupt. It would also give Ramaphosa the incumbency advantage, strengthening the ANC’s position going into the 2019 elections. With a divided NEC, however, such a maneuver will be difficult to execute. Unless Ramaphosa is able to cobble together a majority on the NEC, Zuma may well serve through the end of his term.

2019 Elections

While the ANC is sorting out its internal divisions, the political opposition in South Africa has been gathering strength. The center-right Democratic Alliance (DA) is led by a charismatic young pastor named Mmusi Maimane, whom some have called the “Obama of Soweto.” Maimane has helped the DA expand its support beyond the Western Cape; the party won control of four metro areas in the 2016 elections. The far-Left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party, led by former ANC Youth League President Julius Malema, offers a more radical critique of the ANC. The EFF rails against “neoliberalism,” advocating expropriation of land and nationalization of banks and mines, among other industries.

The ANC finds itself increasingly outflanked by the pro-business Right and the radical Left. Compared to Maimane or Malema, Ramaphosa is a candidate of the status quo. Still, Ramaphosa is a stronger candidate than Dlamini-Zuma, and his selection does not appear to have galvanized the opposition as hers might have. Ramaphosa is the candidate of muddling through, and the ANC will most likely muddle through the 2019 elections.

Prospects for Reform

Let us assume the best-case scenario for Ramaphosa. He unifies the ANC, ousts Zuma, and leads the party to a commanding victory over the DA and the EFF. Through competent staffing and predictable policymaking, Ramaphosa could deliver relief from economic uncertainty. He could tame worrisome inflation, lift South Africa’s credit rating from “junk” status, and accelerate economic growth. That much will reward the confidence that the stock market and the rand have placed in him this week. It’s enough to make him a better leader than Zuma.

But competence and confidence are not enough to make a dent in South Africa’s persistent challenges: stubbornly high unemployment, stark economic and racial inequality, and widespread corruption. To tackle unemployment, Ramaphosa could adopt measures to promote mass employment through low-skilled industrialization—the labor-intensive model Ann Bernstein has proposed. To confront inequality, Ramaphosa could emphasize education reform, adult literacy, and entrepreneurship—changes that would benefit the black majority. He could address the concerns of the #FeesMustFall movement, cutting university fees for students from low-income families. To combat corruption—which drains public coffers and depresses economic growth—Ramaphosa could strengthen the office of the Public Protector by increasing its budget and, unlike Zuma, actually following its advice. He could even follow neighboring Botswana’s example and launch an independent anti-corruption agency.

Only dramatic reforms like these can lift South Africa out of its recent doldrums. Ramaphosa has marketed himself as the candidate of reform. But is he personally invested in reform? Ramaphosa has, after all, prospered handsomely in the post-apartheid era of rising inequality and falling hope. Even if he is personally invested in reform, will Ramaphosa be capable of rallying the ANC to the reform agenda? Will ANC members who have profited from corruption under Zuma give up their privileges without a fight? These are open questions, and the odds for reform are long.

Even with a promising leader, the ANC may not be capable of delivering the reforms South Africa needs. In the post-apartheid era, the portraits on the walls keep changing, but the realities of economic and political life remain the same.

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