Links and Such for the Week of October 8, 2017

Must-Read:

Paul Krugman: The Transfer Problem and Tax Incidence: "I���ve spent three decades pointing out the fallacy of the doctrine of immaculate transfer...
Tyler Cowen: The Fed Needs a Savvy Politician as Its Chair: "The next time major economic volatility comes around, Fed decisions will be scrutinized and politicized like never before... https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-10-05/the-fed-needs-a-savvy-politician-as-its-chair
Peter Suderman: There isn't a political home for people on the right who care about policy: "A recurring theme of 2017 is how frustrated right of center folks who care about policy are with Republicans... https://twitter.com/petersuderman/status/913488456067747840
Pedro Nicolaci de Costa: Trump sees Fed chair nomination as a reality show: "Neil Dutta, head of US economics at the research firm RenaissanceMacro, had this to say about the possible appointment of Warsh... http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-fed-chair-nomination-a-reality-show-2017-9
Nate Silver: The Media Needs To Stop Rationalizing President Trump���s Behavior: "San Juan mayor Carmen Yul��n Cruz... it���s hard to see what possible political benefit Trump could get from criticizing Cruz... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-needs-to-stop-rationalizing-president-trumps-behavior/

Should-Reads:

Mary E. Burfisher, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder: : The Impact of NAFTA on the United States: "The mainstream forecasts during the NAFTA debate were basically correct..." http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.15.1.125
James Kwak: The Importance of Fairness: A New Economic Vision for the Democratic Party: "A central shortcoming of the party is that, on economic issues, it has nothing to say to people trapped on the wrong side of our country���s growing inequality divide... https://baselinescenario.com/2017/06/15/telling-a-better-story-a-new-economic-vision-for-the-democratic-party/
Bridget Ansel: Weekend Reading: ���occupational segregation��� edition: "Even as income inequality spiraled over the past fifty years, America���s child-poverty rate was cut in half...
Equitable Growth: Equitable Growth���s Jobs Day Graphs: September 2017 Report Edition: "The prime employment rate hit a new high for this expansion, rising to 78.9 percent in September...
Joan Williams: Equitable Growth in Conversation: "Elites have what are called entrepreneurial networks���wide circles of acquaintances that are often national, or even global... http://equitablegrowth.org/in-conversation/equitable-growth-in-conversation-joan-williams/
Randall Morck and Bernard Yeung: East Asian Financial and Economic Development: "Japan, an isolated, backward country in the 1860s, industrialized rapidly to become a major industrial power by the 1930s... http://www.nber.org/papers/w23845
Annette Alstads��ter, Niels Johannesen, and Gabriel Zucman: : "The equivalent of 10% of [annual] world GDP is held in tax havens globally...
Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers: Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy: "The Peterson Institute will hold a conference on 'Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy'...
Peter Leyden: California Is the Future/span>: "Ground Zero: San Francisco...
In-Koo Cho and Kenneth Kasa: Model Averaging and Persistent Disagreement: "Two agents construct models of an endogenous price process...
Bob Margo: The integration of economic history into economics: "Many have noticed this long-term integration of economic history into economics...
Peter Leyden et al.: Future of Work http://reinvent.net/events/event/future-of-work-kickoff-event/ | http://reinvent.net/events/event/future-of-work-kickoff-event-23-panel/ | http://reinvent.net/events/event/future-of-work-kickoff-event-33-panel-2-qa/ | http://reinvent.net/events/event/future-of-work-kickoff-event-44-breakout-sessions-conclusion/: "I'm Pete Leydon, and I am the founder of Reinvent...
Elizabeth Munnich and Abigail Wozniak: What explains the rising share of U.S. men in registered nursing?: "This paper documents four decades of increasing participation in registered nursing among US men and explores reasons for this change... http://equitablegrowth.org/working-papers/rising-share-men-nursing/
Nick Bunker: Old companies may be slowing down the U.S. economyh: "Titan Alon and David Berger... Robert Dent... and Benjamin Pugsley... labor productivity of firms over their lifecycles... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/old-companies-may-be-slowing-down-the-u-s-economy/
Karl Smith: Just Say No To Kevin Warsh: "Apparently Kevin Warsh is in a dead heat with Janet Yellen for Fed Chair.����I tried to articulate just how bad this is but the whole thing has me shrill... https://niskanencenter.org/blog/notes/just-say-no-kevin-warsh/
Victor Chernozhukov et al.: Announcement of new Economics (econ) archive: "An Economics section of the scientific repository arXiv is opening this month... https://arxiv.org/help/econ/announcement
James Pethokoukis: Why can't the GOP come up with any serious ideas?: "This is proving to be a monumental week in the 163-year history of the Republican Party. And so far, it isn���t going very well... http://www.aei.org/publication/why-cant-the-gop-come-up-with-any-serious-ideas/
Jong-Wha Lee: South Korea���s Looming Crisis: "More problematic, however, are South Korea���s low labor-market efficiency and weak institutions... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/south-korea-nuclear-threat-economic-crisis-by-lee-jong-wha-2017-10
Alice Wu: Labor Lunch: Gender Stereotyping Academia: Evidence from Economics Job Market Rumors Forum: "Thursday,��October��05,��2017 | 12-1 p.m. | 648��Evans Hall... http://events.berkeley.edu/index.php/calendar/sn/econ.html?event_ID=111181 https://www.dropbox.com/s/k4i8900wgwn0gcr/Wu_EJMR_paper_09_2017.pdf?dl=0
Ben Thompson: Google���s Search for the Sweet Spot: "What was most striking... was Google CEO Sundar Pichai���s opening... https://stratechery.com/2017/googles-search-for-the-sweet-spot/
Paul Krugman: Shifts Get Real: Understanding the GOP's Policy Quagmire: "There are crucial links between the health care faceplant and the bad news (for the GOP) on taxes ��� links both causal and... cultural... https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/shifts-get-real-understanding-the-gops-policy-quagmire/?_r=0
Cosma Shalizi (1994): Review of: John E. Roemer, A Future for Socialism: "What to do the week after the Revolution has always been a poser for socialists... http://bactra.org/reviews/future-for-socialism/
MIT: Computer Science, Economics, and Data Science (Course 6-14): "Required Subjects: Mathematics: 18.06 Linear Algebra... http://catalog.mit.edu/degree-charts/computer-science-economics-data-science-course-6-14/
Karl Smith: THE BIG SIX'S TAX REFORM FRAMEWORK: THE GOOD AND THE BAD: "For individual taxpayers, we see a meaningful effort to curb and slowly eliminate the myriad of deductions and loopholes that plague the tax code... https://niskanencenter.org/blog/big-sixs-tax-reform-framework-good-bad/
Michael Geruso and Timothy Layton: Selection in Health Insurance Markets and Its Policy Remedies: "We begin by outlining some important but often misunderstood differences between two types of conceptual frameworks... http://www.nber.org/papers/w23876
Daniel Davies (2002): Two Cheers for This Year's Nobel Prize: "What the hell is an "ergodic process" when it's at home?... http://blog.danieldavies.com/2002/10/

Links:

Andrew McCarthy: Trump ���Dossier��� & Russia Collusion Investigation: "Trump... gets to decide what may be disclosed. If he wanted us to have all the facts about Obama administration use of foreign-intelligence-collection authority to monitor the Trump campaign, disclosure would already have been made.... Instead, the administration complains about unmasking, but never takes the steps Trump could easily take to expose it as an abuse of power. Just like it complains about the dossier, but never takes the steps Trump could easily take to expose it as a fraud..."
Paul Krugman (1987): Adjustment in the World Economy: "It is Keynes versus Ohlin, not Tobin versus Friedman... the old question of the relative price effects of an international transfer..."
Stefan Bauernschuster, Anastasia Driva, and Erik Hornung: Bismarck���s health insurance and its impact on mortality: "Otto von Bismarck���s compulsory health insurance... [of] 1884... reduced mortality rates for blue-collar workers, probably by��increasing��the public���s knowledge about communicable disease transmission. This supports theories about the fundamental role of hygiene in reduced mortality at this time..."
Thomas Doyle: Why did Saruman look so distressed after he was told to build an army worthy of Mordor?: "One does not simply telephone the Dark Lord of Mordor..."
Howard Gleckman: Will A Corporate Rate Cut Really Increase US Jobs And Wages?: "Hassett made some bold promises to US workers, but, based on what we know so far, the Unified Framework can���t deliver them..."
EPI: Missing Workers: The Missing Part of the Unemployment Story
Tim Dickinson: Jerry Brown's California Dream: "The governor has created a climate-resistant, economically supercharged state ��� is this the blueprint for a more progressive America?..."
Zach Beauchamp: ���Toxic on a day-to-day level���: how Trump is mismanaging the White House: "Rex Tillerson���s 'moron' comment exposes a rot at the heart of the Trump administration.... 'This administration is toxic and dysfunctional', says Paul Musgrave, a political scientist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. 'The weak link is Trump himself'..." https://www.vox.com/world/2017/10/5/16401488/donald-trump-management-white-house
Ezra Klein: 4 political scientists are tracking whether Trump is damaging American democracy: "So far, the story of Trump���s presidency is dysfunction, not authoritarianism..." https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/5/16414338/trump-democracy-authoritarianism
Paul Krugman: The Transfer Problem and Tax Incidence: "Openness... makes a lot less difference to tax incidence than people seem to think.... If you���re trying to assess the effects of tax policies over the next decade, a closed-economy analysis is probably closer to the truth than one that assumes instant equalization of returns across nations..." https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/the-transfer-problem-and-tax-incidence-insanely-wonkish/?smid=tw-share&_r=0
Jake VanderPlas: Frequentism and Bayesianism: A Practical Introduction http://jakevdp.github.io/blog/2014/03/11/frequentism-and-bayesianism-a-practical-intro/
Ceci Rouse: Interviewed by Lisa Barrow
Ramesh Ponnuru: Trump Needs a Nimble Fed Chair, Not a Hawk or a Dove: "Kevin Warsh is always looking for inflation. Can he do what it takes to fight a recession?..."
Mark Gertler: Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance: Lessons from Japan: "I sketch a model meant to capture the challenge of reflation in Japan.... As Kuroda (2016) emphasizes, for an economy without a history of inflation being anchored by a target, individuals need direct evidence that the central bank is capable of moving inflation to target..." http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/17-E-08.pdf
Pseudoeresmus: Labour repression & the Indo-Japanese divergence https://pseudoerasmus.com/2017/10/02/ijd/
Nancy LeTourneau: How Mitch McConnell Paved the Way For Trump http://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/10/03/how-mitch-mcconnell-paved-the-way-for-trump/
David Autor: Polanyi's Paradox and the Shape of Employment Growth https://economics.mit.edu/files/9835
Robin Harding: Japanese business conditions strongest in a decade, Tankan shows: "Evidence of improved corporate fortunes boosts Abe in election race with Koike..." https://www.ft.com/content/65cfc8f6-a707-11e7-ab55-27219df83c97
Neel Kashkari: My Take on Inflation: "FOMC policy over the past few years has likely led to falling inflation expectations and somewhat slower job growth, wage growth and inflation. Why did the FOMC remove accommodation during this time?..." https://medium.com/@neelkashkari/my-take-on-inflation-578aa5b6dc14
Alfred Noyes (1906): The Highwayman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Highwayman_(poem). Was this really written so late as 1906?
Tim Duy: Fed Poised To Downplay Weak Data: "One would think the Fed would be looking for a series of very strong job reports to justify a rate hike in December. But with Fed officials largely convinced that the soft inflation numbers are transitory, a middling jobs report would likely be sufficient to keep them on track, and even a weak report if they can attribute disappointing data to the busy hurricane season..." https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2017/10/01/fed-poised-to-downplay-weak-data/
Sean Illing: Fareed Zakaria on the most important lesson of the Trump presidency: "If this becomes the new norm, then we���re starting to look like Latin America 40 years ago..." https://www.vox.com/2017/9/14/16287506/fareed-zakaria-trump-presidency-lesson
Thomas Fujiwara et al.: Tordesillas, Slavery and the Origins of Brazilian Inequality: "The number of slaves in 1872 is discontinuously higher in the Portuguese side... has led to higher income inequality of 0.103 points (Gini coefficient)..." http://www.tinbergen.nl/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Felipe-Caicedo-27-Sept.pdf
Miles Kimball: Let's Set Half a Percent as the Standard for Statistical Significance: "Dan Benjamin... lead author on... 'Redefine Statistical Significance'.... Multiple hypothesis testing, P-hacking, and publication bias all reduce the credibility of evidence..." https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2017/7/25/lets-set-half-a-percent-as-the-standard-for-statistical-significance
Alex Thompson and Ryan Grim: Kansas Won���t Expand Medicaid, Denying a Lifeline to Rural Hospitals and Patients https://theintercept.com/2017/10/01/kansas-wouldnt-expand-medicaid-denying-a-lifeline-to-rural-hospitals-and-patients/