Macron Gins Up Great Expectations in Greece

French President Emmanuel Macron kicked off his Eurozone reform drive with a dramatic speech in Athens on Thursday, warning that the EU’s democratic legitimacy is at stake if ambitious reforms are not pursued. He also gave a preview of what those reforms might look like, per Politico:

French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday urged eurozone members to move with “maximum ambition” toward adopting a common budget and finance minister, in defiance of Germany’s position.

Speaking in Greece alongside President Prokopios Pavlopoulos, Macron heaped praise on his hosts for their efforts to carry out reforms and stay in the eurozone despite a crippling debt load and stringent savings goals.

To prevent future existential crises in the EU, the French president called for deeper integration between eurozone states, including a “real eurozone budget [and a] a permanent finance minister who leads this executive.”

“This is a democratic responsibility on the eurozone level, and as such it requires maximum ambition,” he added.

Macron’s speech was suitably dramatic for a President who has styled himself after the Roman god Jupiter: standing in the birthplace of Western democracy with the Parthenon looming behind him, Macron presented himself as a visionary leader capable of transforming Europe at a time when its “sovereignty, democracy and trust are in danger.” But those lofty expectations could come back to haunt Macron, whose blueprint for Eurozone reform looks likely to please Athens but antagonize Berlin.

Throughout his Greek trip, Macron offered up proposals that were music to Greek ears. He bashed the International Monetary Fund, saying the IMF should cease making fiscal demands of Athens and had “no place in EU affairs.” He offered soothing words about the heavy costs borne by ordinary Greeks due to austerity, and called on other European countries to support debt relief for Athens. And he promoted an ambitious agenda of fiscal integration that would be favorable to Greek interests, including a common Eurozone budget, parliament, and finance minister to allow for more equitable and accountable fiscal decision-making.

But the same words that endear Macron to Greece could put him on a collision course with Germany. While Macron has been advocating a reform agenda of “maximum ambition,” Angela Merkel has been busy tempering expectations. As Politico reported this past week, Merkel has shown interest in a European Monetary Fund (also backed by Macron) which would act as a glorified version of the existing European rescue fund. But she has been noncommittal and unenthused about more sweeping reform that could diminish Germany’s say in the Eurozone and cause more fiscal transfers to the south. Macron’s talk of debt relief and excluding the IMF is not going to go over well among the famously close-fisted Germans, who have previously demanded the IMF’s involvement as a condition of signing on to Greek bailouts.

Macron is surely aware of these realities, and he may well be consciously staking out an ambitious opening bid with an eye toward a more realistic “grand bargain” with Germany. But it is also possible that he has miscalculated, overpromising to the Greeks and overestimating Merkel’s political flexibility on reform. In that case, Macron will find himself in a bruising battle with Merkel this fall as he seeks to extract German concessions—and he could fall swiftly out of favor with Europe’s south if he is unable to deliver.

One thing is for sure: Macron is not shy about setting expectations high. “Are you afraid of a European ambition that will enable us to win back our sovereignty, our democracy, our confidence?” he asked in Athens. “Have this crazy ambition. I promise you we will succeed.” Macron’s ability to deliver on that promise could make or break his reputation—and if you take his word for it, the EU itself.

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