Is the Visegrad Group Splitting Apart?

Hungary and Slovakia—both members of the combative Visegrad Four grouping that has fought tooth and nail against the EU’s dictates on refugees—just lost a major court challenge brought against Brussels’s mandatory migrant relocation scheme. But in the wake of the European Court of Justice’s verdict, Budapest and Bratislava have taken notably different tacks in responding to the setback.

First, via Politico Europe, consider the fiery Hungarian response:

“The ruling issued by the European Court of Justice in the migrant quota case is outrageous and irresponsible,” said Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó at a press conference Wednesday.

“The real battle is only just beginning,” he added. “Politics has raped European law.”

Hungary’s harsh words were backed up by Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydlo, who said the decision would “not change the policy of our government.” By contrast, Slovakia struck a much more conciliatory line:

“Slovakia fully respects the verdict of the European Court of Justice,” Peter Susko, spokesman for Slovakia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said. “We retain the opinion, however, that the so-called relocation compulsory quotas failed to work in real life.

“We will actively work to express solidarity with countries most affected by the problem of migration using solutions better suited to fit the purpose other than accepting migrants who have no desire or intention to remain in our country.”

The contrast between Hungary’s fight-to-the-bitter-end defiance and Slovakia’s gentle expression of disagreement is already feeding an emerging narrative that the Visegrad countries are parting ways over the migration issue. Poland and Hungary are doubling down on their defiant stand against the EU, the story goes, while the Czech Republic and Slovakia are gradually moving toward a more conciliatory posture as they seek to mend fences with Brussels, Berlin, and Paris.

There are certainly many in Europe who would like to see this happen. When Emmanuel Macron barnstormed through Central and Eastern Europe this past month touting his proposed reforms to EU labor rules, he pointedly excluded Poland and Hungary from the discussions, while gaining provisional support from the Czechs and Slovaks for reforms they have previously resisted. As Jan Cienski has argued, Macron’s moves were part of a wider effort to undermine the Visegrad Group’s solidarity, and prove to Poland and Hungary that their continued intransigence would only lead to further exclusion from important talks on Europe’s future.

That message was echoed this week by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who rebuffed Hungary’s request for additional border security funding in a sharp letter scolding Budapest for to refusing to demonstrate “solidarity” with the EU’s refugee policy. The message was clear enough: if Hungary (or any other Visegrad country) continues to defy Brussels, it can expect further isolation—or worse, including legal action and fines before the ECJ.

But are such tactics actually creating a split within the Visegrad Group? Here the evidence is mixed, and the outlook murky. It is true that the Czechs and Slovaks are sounding more EU-friendly these days: Slovakia’s Prime Minister recently declared that his country should be fundamentally “close to the [EU] core, to France, to Germany,” while the Czechs have been seeking observer status within the Eurogroup to deepen their fiscal integration with the EU’s core. But these developments are less a full-fledged political reorientation than a simple effort by Prague and Bratislava not to be left behind in discussions of Europe’s future. Neither country’s position on migrants has fundamentally changed; indeed, the Czech President’s response to the ECJ ruling was a defiant declaration that he would rather lose EU subsidies than take in more refugees against his will.

In other words, the perceived split in the Visegrad Group may be more wishful thinking than reality. And even if Brussels can browbeat countries like Slovakia and the Czech Republic into a more cooperative posture, it risks engendering even more backlash among voters. Every act of compulsion from Brussels is more kindling for the Euroskeptics’ fire. Whatever Brussels gains in short-term compliance with its refugee policy, it may lose far more due to the long-term resentments of those who resist its edicts.

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