Merkel Rubs Salt in SPD’s Wounds

With the Social Democrats already well down in the polls of September’s elections, Angela Merkel has opened a new line of attack on her opponents’ former leader. From Reuters:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel criticized her predecessor, Gerhard Schroeder, on Monday for taking a new job at Russian oil producer Rosneft and said she did not intend to take any posts in industry once she leaves politics.

The nomination of Social Democrat Schroeder to the board of Rosneft, subject to Western sanctions over Moscow’s role in the Ukraine crisis, has caused an outcry in Germany, especially in a climate of fear about any potential Russian interference in the Sept. 24 vote.

“I do not think what Mr Schroeder is doing is okay,” Merkel, a conservative, told Bild newspaper in an interview broadcast live online.

“I don’t intend to take any posts in industry once I am no longer chancellor,” […] added Merkel, 63.

Much of the press coverage outside Germany has suggested that Merkel’s criticism is all about Russia. Her remarks amount to a “Russia row” with Schröder, according to the Reuters headline, or an effort to “[distance] herself from Schröder’s Russia ties,” per Politico. But that Russia-centric framing is deceptive, and it misrepresents both German attitudes toward Russia and Merkel’s real tactic in slamming Schröder.

Russia is not the kind of wedge issue that German politicians typically use to attack their opponents. After all, the German public has long taken a more favorable view of Russia than many of their European neighbors, for both historical and economic reasons. It is true that views of Russia have soured since the Ukraine crisis, and Merkel herself has taken a tough stance in upholding EU sanctions against Moscow. But she is hardly a dyed-in-the-wool Russia hawk. Merkel has refused to scuttle Gazprom’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, prioritizing German business interests over concerns from Eastern Europe that the deal will preserve Moscow’s energy dominance on the continent. And for similar reasons, she has joined the European opposition to the U.S. Congress’s recent sanctions on Russia—a stance that has surely put a smile on Schröder’s face, ironically enough, since he serves as chairman of the Nord Stream board in addition to his recently acquired position at Rosneft.

In other words, Merkel is hardly a principled opponent of German-Russian business cooperation. Her criticism of Schröder is less about tying him to Russia than painting him more generally as an unprincipled and unscrupulous businessman, eager to cash in after his years in the government. This is a tried-and-true political tactic across the world, of course—just ask Hillary Clinton about her paid Wall Street speeches—but it’s one that may have particular resonance in Germany.

As a revealing snapshot from the Financial Times demonstrates, the Social Democrats have been bleeding blue-collar support for years thanks to the perception that the erstwhile workers’ party has shifted to favor big business. And among the many disillusioned voters who hold that view in Germany’s industrial regions, Gerhard Schröder is Enemy Number One:

“There are a lot of people in parts of the Ruhr who have been left behind economically, and they see the SPD as the cause of their problems,” says Karl-Rudolf Korte, politics professor at the University of Duisburg-Essen. “They never forgave the party for Schröder’s reforms.” […]

Guido Reil, a burly coalminer from Essen, symbolises that shift. A former SPD town councillor in Essen, he defected to the AfD last year. “The SPD is no longer the party of the workers — the AfD is,” he says.

Given that context, Merkel’s latest remarks look like an attempt to reinforce negative views of the SPD, tie the party’s image to her fat-cat predecessor, and paint herself as a virtuous public servant who will not follow his money-grubbing example after leaving office. That argument may help earn her a few more votes among the disaffected SPD base, although the latest polls suggest she doesn’t need the help: Merkel’s CDU is currently polling at a confident 39% compared to the SDP’s 24%.

Of course, even if Merkel’s CDU beats the SDP at those levels, she may still need to work with them in a coalition. And even if Merkel trounces her opponents convincingly enough to rule without them, a seriously hobbled SDP could bring dangerous long-term consequences for Germany. Many of the SDP’s lost voters have flocked to the far-right AfD, after all, and there is plenty of reason not to discount that party in future contests.

When it comes to her electoral odds in September, though, Merkel is still sitting pretty—and a savvy attack designed to reinforce the worst assumptions about her opponents can’t hurt.

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