Does the UK Have a Brexit Strategy?

With her cabinet divided, her European interlocutors exasperated, and her domestic mandate weakened, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to convince the public she has a handle on the Brexit negotiations. And as Downing Street fights rumors that it will pay a hefty divorce bill to Brussels, May is announcing that she will release her elusive strategy… sometime soon. The Guardian:

No 10 has revealed it will release Brexit policy papers on key issues in the coming weeks, as it continues to play down the idea that Theresa May is prepared to pay a divorce bill of about €40bn (£36bn) to the EU.

The position papers are expected to cover crucial topics such as the UK’s preferred options for replacing the customs union and arrangements at the Northern Irish border ahead of the next round of talks with the EU.

They could also cover the financial formula to calculate Britain’s remaining obligations to Brussels, which the UK and EU will have to agree upon to progress to the next stage of talks on their future relationship.

May’s strained effort to re-establish control over the negotiations comes amid cratering public confidence. A new poll shows that 61 percent of voters disapprove of the government’s handling of negotiations, a number that has been steadily creeping upwards since May’s election gamble backfired. And prominent politicos are now openly sniping at May for botching the talks. Sir Simon Fraser, a former senior diplomat, recently made headlines for criticizing the cabinet infighting, unclear objectives, and reactive approach that have characterized the early negotiations. “We haven’t put forward a lot because, as we know, there are differences within the cabinet about the sort of Brexit that we are heading for,” Fraser said.  “Until those differences are further resolved I think it’s very difficult for us to have a clear position.”

Downing Street, of course, is rebutting those charges of cabinet disarray. But a look at recent news reveals that Fraser has a point: “soft Brexit” pragmatists like Chancellor Philip Hammond and “hard Brexit” champions like Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson have been openly clashing of late, leaving May awkwardly trying to position herself between them. Meanwhile, Parliament is also causing headaches for the Prime Minister. Many Euroskeptic Tory MPs bristle at the idea of paying a penny more to Brussels, and are already saying that a costly divorce bill will never make it through Parliament. Given that reality, May has been quick to deny reports that she would pay the EU a €40 billion settlement—even though the EU considers some financial settlement a prerequisite for moving on to trade talks, and it may well demand a larger sum.

Given the UK’s shifting signals, May’s conflicting incentives, and the absence of British proposals, it is hard to escape the impression that the UK is playing a seriously weak hand. In fact, the few Europeans challenging that consensus are arguing that the Brits have been so implausibly inept that they must be playing some cunning three-dimensional chess. Per Politico Europe:

Viewed from Brussels, the U.K. seemed so ill-prepared in the early rounds of Brexit negotiations that some EU countries think it must be a trap. […]

The Brits’ chaotic early posture in the Brexit talks has left them wondering whether London is pulling some sort of deft ploy — a strategy of pretending not to have a strategy. […]

“I think it’s tactics: They are playing for time on purpose,” one attaché from a Western EU country said, “under the pretext of chaos in London.”

“In September they’re going to swamp us with [position] papers on the fault lines — exactly the issues where they know we [the EU27 countries] are divided,” he warned.

This may be a flattering theory for British negotiators, but it is also an unlikely one; as David Allen Green has argued, the simplest explanation for the current chaos is a lack of strategic direction from the top. Still, the fact that some in Brussels subscribe to this theory only underscores the profound mistrust that exists between the two sides. If the EU doesn’t believe the UK is negotiating in good faith, divorce talks are likely to be even more prolonged and painful than expected—and the process of securing a favorable trade relationship will be even more more difficult.

Perhaps May will soon quiet the doubters, unleashing her strategic genius with the coming flurry of position papers. But so far, the UK’s directionless approach to Brexit has hardly inspired much confidence in her “strong and stable” leadership credentials.

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