China and India Won’t Back Down In Border Standoff

Over six weeks after Chinese and Indian troops first squared off along the trijunction with Bhutan, there is no end in sight to their simmering border dispute. And with a new official statement released today, Beijing has made it clear that it will give no ground, demanding that India unconditionally withdraw its troops. From The Hindu:

A detailed statement from the Chinese foreign ministry on Wednesday has said that India may not only have to scale down its forces in Doklam, but also pull back all its troops to end the military standoff in the area.

“As of the end of July, there were still over 40 Indian border troops and one bulldozer illegally staying in the Chinese territory,” the foreign ministry said, adding that Indian troops in the Doklam or Dong Lang area peaked to 400 personnel at one point. […]

The Chinese side reiterated that India must unconditionally pull back its troops from the stand-off area. “The incident took place on the Chinese side of the delimited boundary. India should immediately and unconditionally withdraw its trespassing border troops back to the Indian side of the boundary. This is a prerequisite and basis for resolving the incident.”

The foreign ministry warned that “no country should ever underestimate the resolve of the Chinese government and people to defend China’s territorial sovereignty.” It asserted that “China will take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate and lawful rights and interests.”

The full Chinese statement is an extended exercise in finger-pointing and self-justification, laying the blame for the standoff entirely at India’s feet while summarizing China’s historical claims to the disputed territory. According to the Chinese, India was the instigator from the start, illegally blocking China’s construction of a road on its own territory and improperly inserting itself into the conflict on behalf of Bhutan. Beijing even claims that it had informed New Delhi about the construction of the road beforehand, to assuage any concerns—but that Indian troops illegally crossed the border to block the road anyway.

Needless to say, this version of events contradicts the Indian account, which depicts China as the aggressor intruding on Bhutanese territory. The two sides cannot even agree on where the dispute currently stands: after China’s statement claimed that there were only 40 Indian troops remaining in the Doklam area, Indian government sources quickly denied any troop reductions, insisting that the army continues to stand up to China in its original numbers.

This game of he-said she-said shows no signs of ending any time soon, as each side casts aspersions to blame the other for inciting the dispute. But the conflicting statements do tell us something about how much both sides have at stake here—and why neither one is willing to back down.

For China, this is a clear test of credibility. With Beijing asserting in no uncertain terms that it is building within its own territory, any concession to India would represent an embarrassing capitulation. China is not prepared to lose face and imply that India has a veto over China’s boundary claims—especially not when President Xi is determined to project an image of Chinese strength ahead of of this fall’s Party Congress.

For India, meanwhile, the crux of the dispute is about strategic security. India’s strenuous opposition to the Chinese road is rooted in its own geographic vulnerability. Indian planners have long feared a scenario where the Chinese could cut off the Siliguri Corridor, the narrow “Chicken’s Neck” connecting India’s northeastern regions with the rest of the country. China’s construction of a road in close proximity to that corridor makes that choke-off scenario all the more likely, and India has a vital interest in forestalling that outcome.

Given those stakes, neither side has any incentive to back down; in fact, there are some troubling signs that the dispute could escalate or spill over elsewhere. In recent days, reports have emerged that China is stirring up trouble along another border area in Himachal Pradesh, with locals reporting an increased Chinese helicopter presence and accelerated efforts at road-building across the border. For now, those efforts are a sideshow to the more serious dispute in Doklam, but they do suggest that China is willing to stir up tensions with India on multiple fronts. Meanwhile, the war of words over the Doklam standoff is only getting worse, with Chinese media (and the occasional Chinese official) invoking the memory of the 1962 Sino-Indian border war to intimidate India.

Special representatives for India and China remain engaged in bilateral talks to prevent that outcome, but so far there has been no breakthrough, and the public posturing of the two countries suggests a hardening of positions, not a mutual move toward compromise. Perhaps that means the standoff will simply fester at the current level of high tension, rather than breaking out into a shooting war. Regardless, it is more clear than ever that this is not the kind of minor border flare-up that periodically erupts between China and India. It is a sustained, dangerous, and high-stakes game of chicken between two growing geopolitical rivals—and neither side looks willing to blink.

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