The Rise of Mohammed bin Salman

The Saudi royal family has had a major succession shakeup overnight, as the New York Times reports:

King Salman of Saudi Arabia promoted his 31-year-old son, Mohammed bin Salman, to be next in line to the throne on Wednesday, further empowering a young, activist leader at a time when the kingdom is struggling with low oil prices, a rivalry with Iran and conflicts across the Middle East.

The decision to remove the previous crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, 57, comes as some members of the royal family have chafed at the rise of the younger prince, who emerged from relative obscurity when his father, 81, ascended the throne in January 2015.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman has since accumulated vast powers in the wealthy kingdom, a crucial ally of the United States, serving as defense minister, overseeing the state oil company and working to overhaul the Saudi economy.

Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was expected to eventually rise to the top spot to inherit his father’s throne, but the timing of the move has raised eyebrows. When King Salman ascended to the throne in 2015 there were rumors that he was in bad health and might have some form of dementia. These rumors were quashed by King Salman’s relatively frequent public appearances in which he has shown his age but appears entirely capable. The appointment of MBS as crown prince can only resurface questions about Salman’s health.

It also cements MBS’ position as the driving force in Saudi politics—for better or for worse. MBS has taken the lead on the Aramco IPO, which the Saudis think, perhaps foolishly, will be the largest corporate valuation in history. As Defense Minister he has overseen the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen, which has not gone well. His Vision 2030 economic reform plan is the best economic reform package that a few thousand billable hours to management consultancy firms can buy. An Iran hawk, he is believed to be a leading figure behind the ongoing crisis with Qatar, which the State Department announced yesterday has left them “mystified” by the confusing actions of Saudi and the UAE.

If the rise of MBS helps accelerate his reforms, the ouster of Mohammed bin Nayef (MBN) will remove some of the brakes. MBN was viewed as more conservative and traditionalist on all of the above questions. He advocated more restraint towards Iran. He may also have been “the most pro-American prince ever to be in line to the throne” and was a favorite of the American intelligence community. While it would be narcissistic to think that Washington plays much of a role in Saudi succession planning, it’s worth wondering whether the Trump Administration’s poor relationship with the intel community and apparently close ties with MBS made the timing of this move easier for the Saudis.

Whatever the precise cause of the timing, the driving motivation for all of these reforms, as Walter Russell Mead wrote on Monday, is a Saudi fear that the future is slipping away from them. Surrounded by rivals, unsure of whether or not oil will continue to guarantee wealth, and rife with internal tensions, the Saudis seem willing to try something radical.

Since the founding of Saudi Arabia in 1932, the six kings prior to Salman reigned for an average of about 14 years. Should he rise to the throne within the next five to ten years, MBS can reasonably expect to rule Saudi Arabia for the next half century. If they weren’t already, American policymakers looking to grow the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia should start paying attention to Mohammed bin Salman. He’s going to be with us for a long time.

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