Eastern Syria Heats Up

The past 48 hours have been busy in Eastern Syria. Yesterday, the U.S. coalition announced that it had shot down a Syrian regime plane which was bombing predominantly Kurdish SDF positions. On Sunday, Iran launched medium-range ballistic missiles at ISIS targets near Deir ez-Zour. Today, the coalition announced that it had shot down an armed UAV that was headed towards coalition positions near the U.S. base at al-Tanf.

As I wrote over the weekend, this is just the beginning of a conflict in Syria that is reaching an inflection point. As ISIS is pushed towards defeat, the other actors in the region are jockeying for position. The Syrians, Russians, and Iranians want to test U.S. commitments, whether it’s by sending drones to al-Tanf or launching air raids against the SDF.

The thing is, these U.S. commitments only make sense if they are being made with a long-term strategy in mind. Defending SDF units that are engaged in the fight against ISIS would be one thing. Shooting down Syrian planes attacking SDF positions in areas where ISIS appears to have been already been removed implies a whole different set of priorities. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dunford on Monday justified the shoot-down in legal terms, referencing the 2001 and 2002 authorizations for the use of military force against al-Qaeda. That’s a questionable line of argument, particularly as unlike the recent strikes around al-Tanf, there’s no indication that there was a U.S. troop presence nearby—only Kurdish SDF forces.

Is the goal, once ISIS is defeated, to block Iranian ambitions in Eastern Syria and to support the SDF indefinitely to that end? If so, President Trump ought to have a frank discussion with Congress, and the American people, about it. Because plans and ambitious like these are not a trifling matter.

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