Macron Wins Big in First Round, Crushes Left

Emmanuel Macron’s La République en Marche outperformed earlier estimates in the first round of parliamentary voting in France this weekend and is projected to win as many as 440 seats in the parliament. As this infographic from Le Figaro makes plain, his victory represents nothing short of a rout:

These kinds of projections have historically proved rather accurate in French politics, with the exception of Nicolas Sarkozy’s disappointing showing in the second round in 2007 after predictions of a strong majority after the first. The fact that turnout this round, at 48.7 percent, was at historic lows, also suggests that the projected numbers might be at least a little soft.

But even if projections are off, this looks like a landslide for Macron, and an crushing humiliation for the Left in France. Even if En Marche proves to be a coalition so broad that some parliamentarians end up defecting piecemeal on some issues, it looks like far-reaching labor market reforms are likely to pass. The word is that Macron will spend the summer doing outreach to labor unions, with an eye to passing laws by September, ahead of Germany’s elections. Bond traders this morning are betting that he will be able to pull it off.