Will the Paris Pull Out Affect American Emissions?

Global emissions stalled in 2016 for the third year in a row, but they didn’t do so because of the Paris climate agreement (signed in December 2015). Instead, it was the United States leading the way, as we saw our own greenhouse gas emissions drop a whopping 3 percent during that year, helping to keep global emissions level even as the world economy grew. Contrast that with the EU—the world’s most vocal proponent of green measures—which saw its own emissions rise half a percent in 2015.

So how was America able to succeed where Europe has failed? The answer obviously isn’t the setting of climate targets—if it was, Brussels would have solved the climate problem by now. The real driver behind dropping U.S. emissions has been the shale boom, which has unlocked vast quantities of cheap shale gas that has displaced coal as the country’s dominant source of energy. Natural gas isn’t just cleaner than coal for the local environment, it also emits roughly half as much carbon dioxide as the sooty power source. Fracking is making America greener.

Donald Trump is as unlikely to attack the shale industry as he is to revive coal, which means the most important climate tool in America’s toolbox is going to be there for the foreseeable future. Next to that, the significance of our retreat from a voluntary, unenforceable accord seems to wane.

And with the top-down climate approach now dead on arrival here in the U.S., the bottom-up alternatives are getting a lot more attention. Shortly after Trump’s announcement, a coalition of U.S. states, cities, and businesses came together to pledge to adhere to the emissions reductions targets the president abandoned. That group seems to be giving credence to the notion that Trump’s pull out won’t affect U.S. emissions much. The AP reports:

The momentum of climate change efforts and the affordability of cleaner fuels will keep the United States moving toward its goals of cutting emissions despite the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Paris global accord, business and government leaders in a growing alliance said Tuesday. […]

The momentum of existing climate-change efforts and the availability natural gas, wind and solar power mean those loyal to the Paris accord in the U.S. will have an easier time, with emissions expected to fall overall for years, said Robert Perciasepe with the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, who worked with Bloomberg’s group on the climate pledge.

Some studies suggest the United States will cut emissions as much as 19 percent by 2025 if it simply moves forward as is, he said. That’s not far from former President Barack Obama’s goals for a reduction of 25 to 28 percent as part of the Paris accord, Perciasepe said.

With the environmental movement galvanized, and this new coalition of states, cities, and industries more energized than ever before to commit to mitigation efforts, we might see the United States bridge that gap even faster outside Paris. Fracking will continue to reduce American emissions during Trump’s presidency, just as it did during his predecessor’s, and now that we’ve abandoned the predominant international climate strategy, grassroots alternatives will benefit from more time, money, and attention from greens. Given how ineffective the entire Paris endeavor has been, that could end up being a step in the right direction.