One Independence Movement Falls And Another Rises

A big loser in last night’s UK elections was the Scottish National Party, whose broad losses to the Tories made it clear that the Scots don’t want another vote on independence. But even as the Scots settle down, the Catalans are rising up. The New York Times: 

Catalonia will hold a referendum on independence on Oct. 1, the president of the region said on Friday, defying the Spanish courts and the conservative government in Madrid.

Longstanding objections to the referendum, which was announced by the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, mean that it is unclear how the vote could be held and whether it would be considered binding. But the decision nonetheless raises the stakes in a separatist dispute that has been at the heart of Spanish politics for five years.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, with the support of the Spanish judiciary, has promised to block efforts to hold a referendum, and vowed to maintain Spanish unity and resist the secessionist push from Catalonia.

As the Catalan independence movement has picked up steam in recent years—first in November 2014’s non-binding referendum, later in 2015’s regional elections—independence advocates have repeatedly pointed to the Scottish example to argue their right to a binding referendum. It will be ironic if the failed Scottish movement inspires a much more successful and consequential one in Spain.

The Spanish government, of course, is determined not to let that happen. Apart from the obvious challenge to its own authority, Madrid will not tolerate losing a region that accounts for nearly 20% of its GDP. A high-stakes showdown is already looming: as in past years, Prime Minister Rajoy is promising to play hardball, threatening a host of serious consequences if Catalonia goes through with the independence drive. In extreme circumstances, he could even invoke article 155 of the constitution to suspend regional autonomy, send in the national police and shut down polling stations.

We’ll see if it comes to that; such drastic measures have been avoided in the past, and Madrid may fear stoking further secessionist sentiment with a major crackdown. Still, if Puigdemont proceeds with a vote in open defiance of Madrid and the courts, a serious constitutional crisis could be in the cards.