Will Macron’s Movement Win an Absolute Parliamentary Majority?

Emmanuel Macron’s stunning victory in the recent French Presidential elections last month could be rewarded with an absolute parliamentary majority next month, according to the Financial Times:

[P]olls suggest his cross-party movement, La République En Marche, will attract about 30 per cent of the vote in the first round of the election on June 11 — a 10-point gain in a month and putting the party within reach of winning an absolute majority in the run-off round on June 18.

Such an outcome would defy those sceptical of Mr Macron’s ability to turn his unlikely presidential win into a long-lasting overhaul of French politics. At stake is his room for political manoeuvre as he tries to overhaul the dysfunctional jobs market and revive the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

If La République En Marche pulls it off, expect Macron to move as quickly as possible to pass painful reforms. Macron’s advantage is that, unlike his predecessors, he ran a campaign openly promising he would do just that—and won convincingly. An absolute parliamentary majority would represent a solid mandate, and the only constituency he will feel beholden to is the one clamoring for big changes in France.

If he succeeds, he will be able to approach whoever ends up winning in Germany this fall with a credible argument for undertaking far-reaching reforms of the EU. The Germans, after all, have used France’s unwillingness to make the kinds of labor market adjustments Germany forced upon itself in the early 2000s as an excuse to punt on bigger questions.

There are still many “ifs” and unknowns ahead; it’s all still a long shot. But everyone who wishes the West well should be pulling for Macron. If he fails, France may not get another chance to regain its élan and play its indispensable role in European and world politics.