The Mariner's Obituary: An Analysis of Three Act Structure in Baseball

I've been holding off on writing the Mariner's obituary since the first week of the season when they not only went 1-6 but lost two season defining games. I believe very much in art and really there are games in a baseball season that are pivotal and mean more than others even if they go in the win or loss column looking the same, but the season is so long that only fools can proclaim the destiny of a team after a couple of weeks in April. This gets easier though if you do look at baseball in terms of three act structure, an idea I've written about before. The first act (conceit) is April and May, the second act (conflict) June, July, August, and the third act (resolution) September and October. We're nearing the end of the 1st act now and like a movie you can pretty much tell if a season is going to be a shitter by the end of the 1st act with few movies or teams fully recovering to redeem this, and the M's are the worst kind of movie.

There really isn't much to hang onto with this club except that they have some young talent that looks like it can really go somewhere. I can't think of a movie title right this second to define this team but they are like one of those flicks that has lots of future stars in their first role, but the movie itself is a disaster and no one but film buffs will ever remember it. So, who are the promising talents on the 2017 M's that the fans have held onto with baited breath: Mitch Haniger comes first to mind, but he's on the DL right now, and then Tyler Motter, Ben Gamel, Guillermo Herredia, and a couple of others that are eluding me. The dream for this team if it wasn't beset by injuries was that the young talent would be upheld by the veteran stars (Cano, Cruz, Seager), and the two would blend like colors in a painting to create a memorable team. The problem is the veterans aren't having a very good season, though the stats may belie this a bit, but they have no feeling out there, and just seem lost in a shitter, wondering where their careers are going and when retirement is coming, as they look down the barrel of another season not being in the playoffs.

The injuries are a big part of this season and to stretch out the movie metaphor some I'd say that this is akin to the mood on the set and how well the production goes in general. Of course, some great movies are famous for horrible productions, and vice versa, but in general this isn't how it works. I know the pundits will make excuses for the 2017 M's going under because of injuries to four out of five of the starting pitchers (Iwakuma, King Felix, James Paxton, Drew Smyley (?)), and that this will satisfy the naysayers, but that is not an accurate picture to me. Kuma is truly at the end of his career and I thought he was done last year so that him going to down to injuries isn't so unexpected. King Felix is clearly in the decline of his greatness but like the veterans in the starting line up the hope was that he was good enough still to bolster an up and coming staff, but this might be wishful thinking. They've been touting Paxton for the last three or four years and while he has talent he's been injured every year and it's looking like he is going to be one of those players who fortune didn't shine on. And this isn't even addressing the bullpen that was never there to start with and relying almost wholly on a closer named Edwin Diaz who had a few promising moments at the end of last season but was never fully tested, and is predictably now in the minor leagues.

Structurally, the baseball season is entering the end of the first act (conceit), and the beginning of the second (conflict). I don't go to movies anymore (does anyone?), but I used to have no problem walking out on them and this season is turning into one of those where the fans will leave the park long before the show is over. It's relatively safe to say that a team as bad as the Mariners can't recover at this point and even the cover of the 162 game season is not enough to let the critics sigh and say, "it's baseball... anything can happen." That's true to a point but the season has a structure, and once the Mariners enter the second act in a week or two, there will be no denying that there is no bounce for this club, and no conflict to meet. There is an argument to made for a team playing .500 ball in the first act, kicking it into gear for the second and third act and making the playoffs, just like a movie or book can start slow and turn into something, but that assumes it's alive. This team is dead.