Rouhani Wins Re-election in Iran

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has won his re-election bid against a hard-line challenger. As Reuters reports:

President Hassan Rouhani pledged on Saturday to open Iran to the world and deliver freedoms its people have yearned for, throwing down a defiant challenge to his hardline opponents after securing a decisive re-election for a second term.

Rouhani, long known as a cautious and mild-mannered establishment insider, reinvented himself as a bold champion of reform during the election campaign, which culminated on Friday in victory with more than 57 percent of the vote. His main challenger, hardline judge Ebrahim Raisi, received 38 percent.

In his first televised speech after the result, Rouhani appeared to openly defy conservative judges by praising the spiritual leader of the reform camp, former President Mohammad Khatami. A court has banned quoting or naming Khatami on air.

“Our nation’s message in the election was clear: Iran’s nation chose the path of interaction with the world, away from violence and extremism,” Rouhani said.

Iran will be more open to the world—economically. Though it has been slow from an Iranian perspective, the end of nuclear sanctions has dramatically increased Iran’s international trade, particularly with Europe. Combined with President Trump’s decision on Wednesday to waive sanctions, Rouhani’s re-election will be another sign of continuity for cautious foreign investors.  Expect another wave of trade deals to follow.

But there is no indication that Rouhani will be a “moderate” or a “reformer” on any other issues. On the contrary, during Rouhani’s tenure Iran has redoubled its efforts at regional hegemony through its support of the Assad regime and proxy groups like Hezbollah. Its human rights record remains as appalling as ever. It continues ballistic missile testing, which warranted another round of sanctions from the Trump administration imposed at the same time as the nuclear waiver last week.

The implicit hope of the Obama administration in signing the nuclear deal was that by the time the 15-year restrictions were lifted reformers would prevail and Iran would be a more normal international actor. The fear of the deal’s opponents is that the Ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guard are perfectly capable of waiting out the clock. Rouhani’s voters might well be the kind of pro-reform, more America-friendly majority that Obama had in mind, but Rouhani himself is a perfect cover for the hardliners to maintain power.