Freehold Friday: Hurricanes in space!
It seems I picked a good time to write about the sun and solar storms. It’s kind of eerie when real life starts to mimic your story. Here’s an email I got yesterday from the Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2016 Sep 29 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 29-Oct 01 2016 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 29-Oct 01 2016
Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01
00-03UT 6 (G2) 6 (G2) 5 (G1)
03-06UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 4
06-09UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 4
09-12UT 4 4 4
12-15UT 4 3 3
15-18UT 4 4 4
18-21UT 5 (G1) 4 5 (G1)
21-00UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 4
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely over the
next three days due to influences from a recurrent, positive polarity CH
HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2016
Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2016
Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.
What all this basically means is that the earth is getting bombarded with a geomagnetic storm. To put it in perspective, I live in southern Wisconsin. For me to see the northern lights associated with this storm (or the string of storms headed our way) we’d need at least a 7 on the Kp scale (classified as a G3 moderate-strong) storm. Think of it like hurricanes from the sun.
For reference, in 1859 there was a solar storm called the Carrington Event that caused telegraph stations to catch fire in different parts of the world and shocked operators with electric charges. That was the equivalent of shutting down the internet. Worldwide. Oh, and they saw the northern lights in Cuba.
The Carrington Event was a G5, like a direct hit from Hurricane Katrina or Andrew. But back in 1859 it did little damage and probably spooked more people with lights in the sky than anything else.
What if that kind of event hit the earth today? The destructive power of an CME of that magnitude would be devastating. Anything plugged into a power grid, anywhere on earth (except maybe near the equator) would be fried in the blink of an eye. Some things (like maybe electric cars?) might be fried no matter if they’re plugged in or not. We don’t know because we haven’t funded the research nor taken this threat seriously.
The characters in my new story will be taking things seriously…
What would be the first thing you do if you realized this was about to hit and you had 18-24 hours to prepare? What would you do when you woke up that first day and everything was dead silent? I’m finding out as I write that things will probably not be very pretty despite the northern lights…
