Who's the Real "Deporter in Chief"?, by Bryan Caplan

Immigration activists repeated named Obama the "Deporter in Chief."  Were they right?  Strictly speaking, yes: More human beings were deported under Obama than any other presidency in history.  Substantively, however, the critics were very wrong.  Key fact: U.S. immigration law - and U.S. immigration statistics - makes a big distinction between full-blown deportations ("Removals") and "voluntarily" returning home under the threat of full-blown deportation ("Returns"). 

The distinction is not entirely cosmetic.  If you re-enter after Removal, you face a serious risk of federal jail time if you're caught.  If you re-enter after a mere Return, you generally don't.  But Return is still almost as bad as Removal, since both exile you from the country where you prefer to reside.  Since I've previously suggested that we should count each Return as 85% of a Removal, I've constructed a "Deportation Index" equal to Removals + .85*Returns to capture the substance of U.S. immigration policy.  Check out the numbers:







Year
Removals
Returns
Deportation Index


1977
31,263
867,015
768,226


1978
29,277
975,515
858,465


1979
26,825
966,137
848,041


1980
18,013
719,211
629,342


1981
17,379
823,875
717,673


1982
15,216
812,572
705,902


1983
19,211
931,600
811,071


1984
18,696
909,833
792,054


1985
23,105
1,041,296
908,207


1986
24,592
1,586,320
1,372,964


1987
24,336
1,091,203
951,859


1988
25,829
911,790
800,851


1989
34,427
830,890
740,684


1990
30,039
1,022,533
899,192


1991
33,189
1,061,105
935,128


1992
43,671
1,105,829
983,626


1993
42,542
1,243,410
1,099,441


1994
45,674
1,029,107
920,415


1995
50,924
1,313,764
1,167,623


1996
69,680
1,573,428
1,407,094


1997
114,432
1,440,684
1,339,013


1998
174,813
1,570,127
1,509,421


1999
183,114
1,574,863
1,521,748


2000
188,467
1,675,876
1,612,962


2001
189,026
1,349,371
1,335,991


2002
165,168
1,012,116
1,025,467


2003
211,098
945,294
1,014,598


2004
240,665
1,166,576
1,232,255


2005
246,431
1,096,920
1,178,813


2006
280,974
1,043,381
1,167,848


2007
319,382
891,390
1,077,064


2008
359,795
811,263
1,049,369


2009
391,341
582,596
886,548


2010
381,738
474,195
784,804


2011
386,020
322,098
659,803


2012
416,324
230,360
612,130


2013
434,015
178,691
585,902


2014
407,075
163,245
545,833


2015
333,341
129,122
443,095


Notice: Despite the rise in Removals under Obama, Returns crashed.  Obama's Deportation Index therefore falls as soon as he takes office - and then declines further every single year!  By 2015, Obama's D.I. is half its 2009 value, and about one-third of its previous peak under Bush II.

Does this mean Democrats are the genuine friend of the immigrant?  Not exactly.  Here are the average D.I.s for every president from Carter to Obama.  The last column adjusts for population in millions, which, as you can see, makes the pattern even more extreme.



President
Average D.I.
Average D.I./Pop/10^6


Carter
776,019
3,471


Reagan
882,572
3,718


Bush I
889,657
3,534


Clinton
1,322,215
4,861


Bush II
1,135,175
3,861


Obama
645,445
2,068



Yes, while Obama has the lowest D.I. of any president over the last four decades, the real Deporter in Chief was none other than fellow Democrat Bill Clinton. Adjusting for population, no one else even comes close.  Indeed, while I'm very confident that Trump's D.I. will exceed Obama's, it's far from clear that Trump will manage to displace Clinton from the top spot.  (Betting odds: I'll give 4:1 that Trump's average D.I. when he leaves office will exceed Obama's, but only even money than he'll exceed Clinton's).

The lesson, as usual, is that we should look past surface rhetoric to the bedrock of numbers.  While both Democrats and Republicans casually equate Clinton and Obama, their immigration policies were as different as day and night.

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