NYT Gets Carried Away With Recession Watch

The NYT got a bit overenthusiastic about the prospects for a double-dip recession. It told readers:

"the most recent government reports of consumer spending and factory orders show that both have been falling."

This is not quite right. The most recent data on consumer spending showed that it was flat in June. The key category in factory orders is orders for capital goods. This represents investment demand, which reflects firms confidence about future business prospects. Excluding aircraft...