If you think a progressive alliance will save us, better think again | Martin Kettle

The idea that parties will work together to oppose the Tories is seductive, but there are too many hurdles to prevent it actually happening

Labour has held the Cumbrian parliamentary seat of Copeland continuously for more than 80 years. Yet the Conservatives are odds-on with the bookies to win the byelection that is due there in early 2017 following Jamie Reed’s resignation. The odds reflect a wider scepticism at Westminster about Labour, as well as a feeling that a Tory win may bring on an early general election.

There are, though, good reasons to be doubtful about almost every aspect of this. True, the Labour majority in Copeland in 2015 of less than 3,000 looks vulnerable at a time when the national polls give the Tories double-digit leads and the Labour national share is as low as 25%.

Related: Corbyn critic quits as Labour MP, triggering tight byelection race

Related: Who will win the Copeland byelection?

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