Soft Brexit? Hard Brexit? The EU, not Britain, will decide | Timothy Garton Ash

The UK, requiring 27 countries to agree to a deal, is in a very weak position. By autumn 2018 this will become clear to all

These days, I never travel without my Brexitometer. It measures two things: the time elapsing from the opening of any conversation to the first mention of Brexit (average: three minutes) and the proportion of all those I encounter who think Brexit is a good idea. Over the past two months, I’ve been in America, Canada, Germany, Austria and Poland and the second metric is currently running at about 1%. The other 99% think we Brits have gone stark staring bonkers. How could people known throughout the world for their pragmatism, empiricism and common sense do something so obviously contrary to their own interests? The emotional timbre of this questioning is not anger or despair but rather a kind of melancholy incredulity.

Now of course Brexiteers will jeer that my 99:1 ratio only reflects the kind of irredeemable Europhiles I consort with, but actually I have sought out the widest possible range of people. Adjust the ratio if you will – 90:10, even 80:20 – but anyone who imagines that most of the world thinks Britain has done something smart is living on another planet. The fact that it may be Planet Trump is small consolation.

Forget the Brexiteers who say 'they need us more than we need them'. The continental 'them' see it differently

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