Why The FBI's "October Surprise" Email Probe May Not Impact The Election

Last-minute revelations, such as George W. Bush's drunk-driving arrest, don't always do much to change voters' minds.

Last-minute revelations, such as George W. Bush's drunk-driving arrest, don't always do much to change voters' minds.

It's been a perennial of presidential politics for almost half a century: the "October surprise," a damning revelation about a candidate leaked just weeks before Election Day. Today's news that the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton's private email server was being reviewed in the light of "new evidence" had headline writers using the term once again. And the revelation certainly fits the bill: Here we are just a week and a half before the election, and the potential for damaging news could upend Clinton's lead in the polls.

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