Beating The Odds: A commencement speech I may or may not get to give

A college president invited me to lunch yesterday to discuss the possibility of my giving a commencement address. We agreed  that a good topic would be "Beating the Odds."
Afterward, I decided to draft the address to give him an idea of what I'd say. I thought you too might find it of value so I posted it on PsychologyToday.com