RAND Report Speculates as to How a Shooting War Between the U.S. and China Would Unfold

As reported by The National Interest, a new report from the think tank RAND Corporation declares that should a shooting war break out between the U.S. and China in the foreseeable future, the Western Pacific ocean would serve as the principal battleground, and while both sides would likely avoid the deployment of nuclear weapons, the negative impact of such a conflict would prove highly significant for two of the globe���s most prominent nation-states.

Although the report says that casualty numbers on both sides would be substantial, it also declares about the nature of such a conflict that ���neither side would regard its losses as so serious, its prospects so dire, or the stakes so vital that it would run the risk of devastating nuclear retaliation by using nuclear weapons first.���

As for the prospect of the shooting war actually being fought in the homeland of each country, the report suggests that while the U.S. would engage the Chinese in country, China would not be as likely to do likewise, given their diminished capacity to fight with nonnuclear weapons.

Were a war to break out in the nearer term, the U.S. would be better positioned to prevail, but, as time goes on and the Chinese continue to prioritize a buildup of military resources, a war that breaks a decade from now would be more favorable to the Chinese. The report says that while the U.S. would still likely prevail even at that time, superior Chinese assets would mean a much longer conflict, and make an outright victory less achievable by either side.The report also outlines ideas that might make a shooting war between the U.S. and China less likely, including:
U.S. leaders should develop options to deny China access to war-critical commodities and technologies in the event of war.
The United States should conduct contingency planning with key allies, especially Japan.
The United States should improve its ability to sustain intense military operations.
U.S. leaders should develop options to deny China access to war-critical commodities and technologies in the event of war.

Strategists and policy wonks are finding themselves more heavily scrutinizing the prospect of war between the two nations as the Chinese continue, unabated, their effort at growing and strengthening all elements of their military. While the idea of a shooting war between the countries strikes many as unthinkable, those who make it their business to ponder such a possibility cannot ignore the ever-increasing militaristic stance of the Chinese, who���ve long been jealous of America���s role as the world���s premier superpower.

By Robert G. Yetman, Jr. Editor At Large