Sorting Hat, Meet The Prediction Hat
The Passive Voice looks at the J.K. Rowling self-publishing announcement, and discusses in detail all the ways it's disruptive to traditional publishing and book distribution models. But, if that doesn't float your boat — and I'm assuming most of the hardcore Potterheads in my readership are still fast asleep, having called in sick after last night's midnight showings of Deathly Hallows — you might be more interested in his look ahead at other big news stories he thinks we'll see about self-publishing:
Putting on his prediction hat, Passive Guy says we'll see:
Continuing reduction in the number of physical bookstores (easy to predict)
Further consolidation of publishers (also easy)
More big author names announcing some version of indie publishing (easy)
More Wellesley English majors looking for work outside publishing/agenting (barista training booms)
Continuing proliferation of ereaders and/or tablet devices conducive to reading and reductions in ereader and tablet prices (easy)
A giant ebook/ereader Christmas season in 2012 (easy)
Nastier publishing and agency contracts designed to lock up authors forever (easy)
More John Lockes and Amanda Hockings appearing among indie authors
Continuing rapid innovation in publicity strategies for indie authors
More crowded online bookstores
More aggressive talent searches by movie/TV types or new-style agents among indie authors as the publisher/agent pipeline of books begins to dry up
On the lawsuit front (after authors work through their battered wife/husband/child codependency syndromes):
One or more lawsuits by authors against their publishers and/or agents for underpayment of royalties
One or more lawsuits by authors against their agents for misrepresentation of the benefits and consequences of agent-as-publisher agreements
Multiple lawsuits by authors trying to break publisher/agent contractsBut what doesn't change?
People will continue to want stories, new stories, interesting stories, stories that bend their minds and touch their hearts.
Storytellers are always necessary.
People are always willing to pay for good stories.
