A Challenge to Futurists

I love futurists, the very idea that we can take a statistical model and from the information revealed divine what might occur in the future is a spectacular feat of magic. And, in saying just that, I should be clear, I’m not suggesting that there is a problem with this process. The models are as accurate as the data from which they’re derived.

But there is an art to modeling as there is a science. And I suppose that many futurists tend toward optimistic predictions. For instance, take this q...