Probability Of Civilization Ending Coronal Mass Ejection This Decade is 12%

What follows is the abstract of Pete Riley's, 23 February 2012, paper On The Probability Of Occurrence Of Extreme Space Weather Events.

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze seve...