U.S. Open Fantasy Preview
The TOUR heads to Oakmont for the second major of the season and boy will it be a doozy! Angel ‘El Pato’ Cabrera won this last time (2007) with a winning score of 5-over-par and it’s not expected to play any easier this time around.
The course is Oakmont Country Club. It’s a par 70, 7,255 yard track that is world-renowned for it’s lightning-fast greens. The joke with the members of the club is that when the PGA TOUR comes to play, they have to trim the rough and slow down the greens for the TOUR players. There is a reason why the blue tees play at just 6,436 yards for the members. With five par 4s under 410 yards, many golfers will opt for less-than-driver on more than half the holes. There are basically eight holes where driver can be/is the preferred route. Length is not supposed to be a factor here. It’s about splitting the fairways (or close enough to where you’re in the first cut of rough and not the 5 inch nastiness that exists when you miss more than 3 yards off the fairway).
There are no trees or water on the course (very links-like) but there are fescue ditches that are technically “water hazards”. You may get lucky if you land in one and be able to play out of the hazard but most likely you will be forced to drop just like water was actually there. The church pew fairway bunkers will get a lot of love this week. They are often just “punch out” bunkers that add a stroke to your score and can penalize you even further if you attempt to get cute. The USGA has shaved the rough around the fairways bunkers this year to allow more balls to trickle into the bunkers (rather than ending on in the rough on awkward lies). Performance out of fairway bunkers may be an interesting angle to look at but ideally you still want to pick golfers that will avoid the bunkers.
From there, the green surfaces are large enough that hitting them is not too difficult, but keeping them on the green is the hard part. Remember these greens run around 14 feet on the stimp and are heavily sloped. That affects more than just putting. Balls will naturally roll off the edges if you miss in the wrong spots. Because of this, GIR numbers will be low this week (52% and 53.6% last two editions) and play around the green will become an important stat to look at.
Once you reach the greens, you have to deal with unique poa that runs at 14 feet on the stimp. You can view poa annua specialists if you want a tiebreaker but like that article mentions, this is a very unique strain of poa annua. It’s cut so short that it’s really not like the poa we’re used to seeing on the California Swing.
One tournament you may want to use as a tie-breaker is the Masters. It makes sense given the overall difficulty and extremely slick greens on both courses. Of the 12 golfers that finished top 10 in 2007, nien of them had at least one top 20 at Augusta prior to their Top 10 here at Oakmont.
Take a look at the Fantasy Golfanac for more course specifics and golfer quotes.
Players to Watch
Jason Day… He’s obviously going to be very popular but for good reason. His raw ranking isn’t first in my model but a few things had me move him up from third to first on a manual adjustment. First, he’s played a lot of less-than-driver courses this year. A few of the bigger hitters avoid the LT Driver tracks because their length gets negated. Day has decided to embrace his advantage on and around the greens, and we’ve seen him really excel on less-than-driver courses this year. Second, looking at SGP on fast greens since the start of 2015, only Aphibarnrat has a higher SGP (min 100 holes measured). Third, his currently form is obviously remarkable. The win rate since last year is huge, especially on a week where hole-by-hole points will be tough to come by. Owning the winner will be huge.
Henrik Stenson… A course where driving accuracy is a big advantage and driver is not needed on most holes? That screams Stenson to me. The flat stick will be the wildcard, but I think his floor is very nice given his ball-striking.
Rory McIlroy… His baseline performance is so good that it’s never a bad idea to take him. Will he actually win? Well, we’ve seen a lot of loose approach shots from him this year which will lead to brutal lies in the thick stuff this week. We may see too many double bogeys for him to truly win. With nearly all the trees removed from the course, it’s returned to it’s links-style roots and we know how Rory is not the greatest on links venues, although wind is not forecasted too high at the moment. All that said, I still think he’s a safe bet to finish top 25.
Dustin Johnson… He looks locked in off the tee and controlling his ball masterfully in terms of ball flight and shot-shaping. The only problem is his play around the green. He currently ranks 105th in strokes gained around-the-green and 160th last year. He’s actually pretty good on slick greens, but he may bleed too many strokes from the rough/sand around the green.
Billy Horschel… Billy Ho was one of the biggest critics last year at Chambers Bay. He’s already raving about the “traditional US Open setup” at Oakmont. Last year he was instantly taken out of contention due to his mindset, I think it’s the opposite this week. Should be able to grab a top 25 and has top 10 upside if he gets the putter working for the week.
Brooks Koepka… He’s stated his love for tough courses in the past and the stats back it up. He’s gained strokes over the field in 13 of his last 15 starts on courses that played at least 0.75 strokes over par. He also arrives with back-to-back runner-ups. Boom, great play.
Retief Goosen… Is a two-time U.S. Open champ, so we know he likes the way USGA sets up a tough test. He’s played rejuvenated golf this year, too, arriving with three straight top 15s. Solid cash-game option on DK, but really doubt we see a top 10.
Daniel Berger… Coming off his maiden victory, we often see golfers struggle in this situation. However, it’s a major championship week, so his media duties may not increase that much since all the big names are in the field this week. He’s said in the past that he feels comfortable on tracks that feature a lot of water, because he feels comfortable. No water this week + coming off first win = good week to avoid or keep to a sprinkle of ownership.
Justin Rose… His back injury is a concern, but he’s a great fit for this type of layout, otherwise. He’s a grinder that is very comfortable settling with pars. I think he’s a great GPP play since many will avoid due to injury concerns.
David Lingmerth… This is scary to recommend, but the Swede is popping in a lot of areas this week. He’s won at the Memorial so we know he can handle slick greens. He’s better on par-70 layouts, and doesn’t mind clubbing down off the tee. A decent deep sleeper, in my opinion.
Matthew Fitzpatrick… When you can be considered the “next great thing” despite being short-to-average length off the tee, you know the rest of your game is legit. He won his last start in Europe so he’s arriving in good spirits. In six measured rounds on quick greens, he’s gained 0.683 strokes putting per round which is inside the top 20. Obviously a small sample, but makes him worth a look.
Brendan Steele… He loves playing tough tracks and seems to up his game as the strength of field increases. Over his last 11 starts on courses that played 0.75 strokes-over-par or tougher, he’s gained four or more strokes over the field in seven of those starts. High upside play if his putter cooperates!
Paul Casey… The U.S. Open has never been his favorite but his lone top 10 was at Oakmont (2007). He blasted the field by nearly 11 strokes when he carded a second-round 66. Good memories and doesn’t mind slick greens. That makes him a solid option in all formats.
Hideki Mastsuyama… I’m on the fence here. I wanted to go all in on Hideki after seeing his stats on fast greens. He owns top 10s in nine of his last 18 starts when the stimp is over 12 feet. That’s a 50 percent rate compared to his 20 percent baseline in other events during that time. HOWEVER, he’s collected just one top 10 during his last 13 starts on par 70 layouts. Which angle will win out!?
Soren Kjeldsen… One of the most accurate in field, which should help his floor. He posted just one three-putt at the Masters, which is fantastic for his potential on quick greens. Only one golfer finished all four rounds without a three-putt at Augusta.
Emiliano Grillo… Another fairways-and-greens golfer which could really pop. He posted a T17 at the Masters and wouldn’t be shocking to see a similar result this week. Would be #26 on my rankings if they extended that far.
U.S. Open Cheatsheet… Head over to Daily Fantasy Solutions and grab this week’s DraftKings cheatsheet! This week’s sheet will get posted mid-Tuesday.
My Top 25 for the 2016 U.S. Open
1. Jason Day
2. Rory Mcilroy
3. Henrik Stenson
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Matt Kuchar
6. Brooks Koepka
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Dustin Johnson
9. Justin Rose
10. Sergio Garcia
11. Adam Scott
12. Bubba Watson
13. Paul Casey
14. Charl Schwartzel
15. Patrick Reed
16. Rickie Fowler
17. Billy Horschel
18. Danny Willett
19. Bill Haas
20. Kevin Chappell
21. Lee Westwood
22. Retief Goosen
23. Soren Kjeldsen
24. Brendan Steele
25. J.B. Holmes
