The Decline of Japanese Tourism to Hawaii Has Not Had the Impact Many Observers Predicted

Several weeks have now elapsed since the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and it is quite apparent that the Japanese economy will continue to suffer from those events. Shortly after the initial news, I contacted Jeff of Beat of Hawaii ( www.beatofhawaii.com ), the perceptive website about tourism to the islands, and asked him to assess the impact of the Japanese tragedy on Japanese tourism to Hawaii. He responded, in an e-mail that I reprinted in full, that Hawaiians were concerned but not yet persuaded that their economy -- namely, Hawaii's economy -- would also suffer. Or that any change would be brought about that would make travel to Hawaii more favorable for U.S. tourists.

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Photo Caption: North Shore beach, Oahu. seattlenativemike/Frommers.com Community

Yesterday, I asked him to bring us up to date on the continuing impact of Japan's trouble on Hawaii, and he responded to me that the total amount of Japanese tourism to Hawaii had declined over many years prior to the earthquake, for reasons of Japan's own, continuing, slight economic recession. And therefore, he pointed out, the amount of Japanese tourism to Hawaii -- about 17% of the total tourism to Hawaii from all countries -- was not enough to threaten any major impact to Hawaii. And although Japanese tourism has declined as a result of the earthquake/tsunami, the reduction has been largely offset by an increase in tourism from the U.S. mainland. Therefore, he concluded, there has not yet been any significant impact on hotel prices in Hawaii.

His complete e-mail to me is as follows (and I thought you would be interested in it):

Japanese tourism to Hawaii hit its peak in 1997, when 2.15 million visited here. It hit a bottom in 2008, and has remained at near record low levels. Last year, there were only 1.2 million Japanese visitors in Hawaii. That represented about 17 percent of the $11.4 billion overall visitor industry revenue.

While Hawaii had been anticipating an increase in Japanese tourism in 2011, that outlook has definitely reversed. In the first two months of 2011, Japanese tourism in Hawaii had been up nearly 28 percent compared to the same period last year.

Thus far, tourism from the US Mainland and Western Canada appears to be making up the difference caused by the loss of Japanese visitors. As a result I have not seen significant softening in overall pricing in hotels, and there have been few opportunities in terms of airfare sales. Obviously some properties and businesses have been impacted more than others. I recently posted a $69 Aqua hotel special. I checked with Aqua, and they told me that the significant price drop on that property was the result of a loss of planned Japanese visitors.

In the long-term, the outlook is good for the return of Japanese visitors. Japan's love affair with Hawaii remains as strong as that of North Americans. However, based on experience with the Kobe earthquake in 1995, wherein it took years for a full recovery to occur, this will likely be worse.