Paul Ryan's Nutty Point Forecast

Andrew Gelman brings an excellent statistical perspective to Paul Ryan's ridiculous contention that his plan will produce 2.8 percent unemployment.

Forget the macroeconomics and just think about the uncertainty—does Paul Ryan think that a 0.0 percent unemployment rate and a 5.6 percent unemployment rate are equally likely scenarios? Does he think a 6 percent unemployment rate and a negative unemployment rate are equally likely?