Game of Thrones Recap: The Red Woman
Well, that had to be the most predictable season premiere of all time.
Fans have had nearly a year to chew on the previous season, and put together their own predictions of what is to happen next: (1) Jon Snow is brought back to life by Red Priestess; (2) Brienne would find Sansa; (3) Lannisters and Martells go to war; (4) Daenerys would convince the Dothraki of her previous marriage to Drogo and avoid being treated as a typical slave; (5) Arya is blind beggar but won’t be forsaken by the House of Black and White.
Nearly all of these things happened. Let’s start go in order.
Of all the predictions, (1) did not happen in episode 1. Ser Davos has his knightly sensibilities insulted when Jon Snow is murdered. Jon’s friends are prepared to die for their revenge while Davos wants them to escape. The Red Priestess may be the answer, or it could be the Wildlings.
Much to the disappointment of the millions of female fans out there, Jon Snow is still dead. Not only that, they still have no answer to the White Walkers. We also don’t know if Davos will learn about what happened to Stannis’s daughter. The Red Priestess won’t be alive much longer when he finds out. She is on death watch.
Sansa and Theon meet up with Brienne and Podrick. This was inevitable. Now that Sansa has some muscle and some intelligence, she is off death watch for now. If they stay in the North, they will need to find a house still loyal to the Starks, or hate the Boltons. That might be the Karstarks, or it might be the house that is sheltering Rickon Stark, her brother. Otherwise they will need to flee south and head to the Vale. Sansa might not be too enthusiastic about that given her uncle Littlefinger basically sold her to Ramsey the sadist.
It was interesting to learn the Boltons do not really have enough power to hold the North. They rely on their alliance with the Lannisters and Walder Frey. With the Lannisters circling the drain, Roose Bolton does not feel secure. The marriage with Sansa Stark was part of his play to keep the North but with her gone his grip is slipping.
I still don’t know what Littlefinger’s play is. I thought he wanted Sansa for himself, a younger version of his beloved Catelyn. At the same time, he tends to play the long game and may be thinking a few steps ahead. The endgame for him is the end of House Lannister and Baratheon, those responsible for the death of his love, as well as several personal humiliations. One is already extinct (Baratheon), while the other is falling farther into the abyss. However, Littlefinger has no claim to the throne. He could use Robin Arryn as a puppet but who would accept such a weakling as king? A puppet is one thing, but Robin can’t even succeed as a puppet, not without a lot more muscle behind him.
Not sure where that is going.
We knew Lannisters and Martells were heading to war but it seems the process has been accelerated. Lord Doran Martell was assassinated along with his son Trystane, effectively ending their house. Ellaria is of a great house and thus has no claim, nor do the Sand Snakes. Unless they fabricate a claim for the eldest daughter of Prince Oberyn, I see the Dorne falling into chaos. They would have to come up with marriage documents, legitimizing the one daughter they had together, Tyene.
Those seeking vengeance do not always plan ahead, but Ellaria executed a pretty good plan against Doran.
King Tommen is in trouble. The alliance with the Tyrells is all but dead. Ser Loras and Queen Margaery are imprisoned. That leaves the Lannister armies fighting by themselves against the Tyrells, Martells, and whoever else smells blood in the water.
We all knew Daenerys was not really in mortal danger. She has a big scaly, fire-breathing friend plus two reliable knights on her trail. When brought before the Khal, she convinces him she is the widow of Khal Drogo. Unfortunately her negotiations to be escorted back to Meereen fail. She is to be brought to Vaes Dothrak the capital for the Dothraki hordes.
Meanwhile, Meereen is falling apart. Even the wise Tyrion and Varys may not be able to hold it together. Prior to that, Queen Daenerys was struggling to rule the troubled city. How does she expect to rule seven kingdoms?
Arya is now a blind beggar, for her crimes against the House of Black and White. The young girl from the temple challenges her to a fight and wins easily. It seems the House is not done with her yet, as expected.
So that’s 4 out of the 5 most common predictions that came true.
Politically Westeros looks like it will endure more years of civil war and chaos. None of the great houses have enough power to maintain control over seven kingdoms. Partition is a possibility for some, although several of the kingdoms look to be in ruins: Riverlands, the North. The threat of the White Walkers remain unchecked.
In the East, Daenerys has struggled. Even if she is freed and returns to Meereen, more peril waits for her there.
It’s all just a big mess and will take a long time to clean up.
I predict Sansa and Brienne will inevitably go to the Karstarks or some other lower house in the North. Jon Snow will be brought back to life and will be an outlaw along with Davos and those that will abandon the Watch. A war between the Boltons and the pro-Stark houses may be coming. Look for White Walkers to breach the wall and advance into Westeros.
Dorne will declare itself a sovereign kingdom with Ellaria Martell (fabricated marriage documents) at the head and Tyene Martell as heir. It is difficult seeing them create an alliance through marriage, in fact it is hard to see any of the Sand Snakes marrying anyone. If they care at all about the dynasty they would have a matrilineal marriage (children are of the mother’s dynasty, not father’s). Perhaps it will be a marriage in name only, formalizing an alliance but the two will live separately. That leaves the problem of producing an heir. Perhaps Ellaria marries…Ser Loras? Tyrells have reason to switch sides, perhaps become sovereign themselves.
What is Littlefinger up to? He might return to King’s Landing and begin his machinations for wiping out what is left of House Lannister. Then what? Can Arryn ally with any other great house? Frey has heirs, Greyjoy has a daughter, and then there’s the Boltons with no unmarried heirs. Maybe a lower house will rise to seize the Baratheon lands, or maybe the brotherhood without banners will start to matter. There is still Blackfish Tully lurking about, desperate for revenge against Walder Frey.
Daenerys certainly cannot go to Westeros without ships. Her challenge, with the help of Tyrion and Varys, will be to defeat the Sons of the Harpy and pacify her new city. Then she needs to figure out how to get to Westeros.
Assuming she gets there, then what? Who would back her as Queen? Dragons and an army would certainly impress but they would also need to be convinced she can end the civil war. As of now, Lannisters, Freys, and Boltons are directly threatened by her claim. The Tyrells might be open if they can somehow nullify the marriage of Tommen and Marjaery. Ellaria and the Sand Snakes are probably not interested in swearing allegiance to an Eastern queen.
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