Any party that fails to speak for England can forget about No 10 | Martin Kettle

We’ll learn much from all the polls on 5 May. But the battle in English cities and counties will tell us most

Forget about London. Forget about Scotland. Forget, even with Port Talbot, about Wales. Forget the city mayors. And forget, assuming you are aware of them, the two Westminster byelections in May as well.

That’s not to say that London, Scotland, Wales, the mayors or the byelections are politically unimportant, let alone that the contests in these places on 5 May are uninteresting. On the contrary. But the place that holds the key to the future of this country isn’t any of these. It’s the rest of England. Ignore that England at your peril.

Related: Do you know more about London than Zac Goldsmith? – quiz

Labour needs to be the party of Essex, Hertfordshire and Kent; the voice of Carlisle, Plymouth and Telford

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