John Cassidy's Blog, page 35

With Donald Trump Away, Jeb Bush Comes Alive

Imagine, if you will, a world in which Donald Trump, rather than running for President, decided to stick with his golf courses, his real-estate and casino ventures, and his occasional questioning of President Obama’s birthplace. A world in which there had been no emergence of “Trumpism” or debate about what it means; no description of Mexican immigrants as criminals by a Republican candidate for President; no proposal to ban Muslims from travelling to the country; and no vituperative attacks on George Will, Charles Krauthammer, National Review, and other pillars of U.S. conservatism. A world, that is, in which the G.O.P. hadn’t been turned upside down.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
John Kasich and the Fading Republican Establishment
Marco Rubio’s Long Game
Daily Cartoon: Friday, January 29th

A Saudi Prince Burns Donald Trump

With his battle with Megyn Kelly and Fox News still raging, Donald Trump got into another spat on Thursday—this time with an ultra-wealthy Saudi prince who helped him out, financially, twice in the nineteen-nineties, when some of Trump’s businesses were struggling.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Donald Trump’s Path to Victory, As Told Through Headlines
Donald Trump’s Hostile Takeover of the G.O.P.
Jeb Bush Is Totally Committed

Donald Trump vs. Fox News: The Big Picture

If you’re like me, you can’t get enough of the story about Donald Trump skipping the Fox News debate in Iowa on Thursday night. We have: Trump trying to bully Roger Ailes, the chairman of Fox News, into dumping Trump’s supposed tormentor Megyn Kelly, who is scheduled to be one of the three debate moderators on Thursday, reportedly because he feared that he wouldn’t receive fair treatment; Fox responding with a press release, reportedly put together by Ailes and a crony, which began, “We learned from a secret back channel that the Ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president”; Trump pulling out of the debate; and virtually every journalist in America, and some from overseas, speculating about what it all means.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Millions Resent Being Put in Horrible Position of Siding with Megyn Kelly
Daily Cartoon: Wednesday, January 27th
The Plot to Destroy Marco Rubio

Why Is President Obama Embracing Hillary Clinton Now?

A couple of weeks ago, on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Denis McDonough, the White House chief of staff, appeared to indicate that President Obama wouldn’t be backing anyone in the Democratic primary. The President would vote in the Illinois primary, on March 15th, and campaign for whichever candidate emerged from the process, McDonough said. Now, though, Obama has come very close to issuing a public endorsement of Hillary Clinton.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Hillary Clinton’s Compromises
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders Clash Over Poetry and Prose
Cassidy’s Count: Iowa’s Democratic Caucus Is Too Close to Call

Cassidy’s Count: Iowa’s Democratic Caucus Is Too Close to Call

With a week to go until the Democratic caucuses in Iowa, it would take a brave person to bet on the outcome. The opinion polls are all over the place, and many of them have technical issues. If you average out the most recent surveys, Hillary Clinton retains a narrow lead, and on Sunday she received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, the biggest newspaper in the state. However, Bernie Sanders is drawing larger crowds to his events, and he appears to have momentum on his side.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Hillary Clinton Should Play to Her Strengths
The New Hampshire Primary Is All About Bernie
Sanders Admits Receiving Free Checking from Big Banks

Cassidy’s Count: Iowa’s Democratic Caucus Is Too Close to Call

With a week to go until the Democratic caucuses in Iowa, it would take a brave person to bet on the outcome. The opinion polls are all over the place, and many of them have technical issues. If you average out the most recent surveys, Hillary Clinton retains a narrow lead, and on Sunday she received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, the biggest newspaper in the state. However, Bernie Sanders is drawing larger crowds to his events, and he appears to have momentum on his side.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Michael Bloomberg’s Presidential Trial Balloon
Daily Cartoon: Friday, January 22nd
Bernie Sanders and the Realists

Michael Bloomberg’s Presidential Trial Balloon

On Saturday, the Times reported that the former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg “has instructed advisers to draw up plans for a potential independent campaign in this year’s presidential race.” From one perspective, that isn’t too surprising. The former mayor has long been eyeing a possible run at the White House, and there has been a lot of speculation about his intentions in 2016. Last week, a well-connected New York Republican told me that he thought Bloomberg would jump in if Donald Trump won the G.O.P. nomination.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Hillary Clinton Should Play to Her Strengths
The New Hampshire Primary Is All About Bernie
Sanders Admits Receiving Free Checking from Big Banks

Michael Bloomberg’s Presidential Trial Balloon

On Saturday, the Times reported that the former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg “has instructed advisers to draw up plans for a potential independent campaign in this year’s presidential race.” From one perspective, that isn’t too surprising. The former mayor has long been eyeing a possible run at the White House, and there has been a lot of speculation about his intentions in 2016. Last week, a well-connected New York Republican told me that he thought Bloomberg would jump in if Donald Trump won the G.O.P. nomination.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Cover Story: Barry Blitt’s Presidential Portraits 
Trump’s Plan to Randomly Shoot People Lacks Details, Random Shooters Say
The G.O.P. Establishment Doesn’t Need to Surrender Yet

Bernie Sanders and the Realists

During the past few days, a number of liberally inclined commentators have published pieces querying Bernie Sanders’s domestic program, particularly his “Medicare for all” health-care proposal. That’s not particularly surprising. With polls showing Sanders leading, or challenging Hillary Clinton for the lead, in Iowa and New Hampshire, his proposals demand inspection. Until recently, there hadn’t been very much of this.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
The G.O.P. Establishment Doesn’t Need to Surrender Yet
Sarah Palin Crusades for President Trump
Daily Cartoon: Wednesday, January 20th

Are We Already in a Bear Market?

With stock market falling again on Wednesday—the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down about two hundred and fifty points—we’ll be seeing a lot of talk about whether we have entered a bear market. Such discussions rarely yield much insight. On Wall Street, the conventional definition of a bear market is a fall in stock prices of more than twenty per cent from the previous peak: anything less is referred to as a “correction.” But this definition can be misleading.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
The Dubious Logic of Stock-Market Circuit Breakers
China’s Two Big Economic Challenges
Cover Story: Joost Swarte’s “The Mouse of Wall Street”