John Cassidy's Blog, page 34

Why Donald Trump Is Such a Formidable Politician

Wednesday was the day when Washington woke up to the fact that Donald Trump could well be the Republican Presidential candidate, and that, perish the thought, he could even be America’s next President. The opinion polls had long been predicting an easy victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary—but polls are one thing and actual votes are another. It’s a bit like the difference between hearing that a friend or family member has received a horrible medical prognosis and seeing the symptoms progress firsthand. The first is upsetting; the second is shattering.

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Related:
Donald Trump and Citizens United: A Modest Proposal
Daily Cartoon: Thursday, February 11th
Chris Christie’s Gone, but the G.O.P. Race Will Go On and On

Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump Ride the Populist Wave

Let’s start with the qualifiers. New Hampshire is a small state tucked away in the northeast corner of the country, with a population that is, in many ways, unrepresentative of the United States as a whole. Compared to the rest of the country, it is whiter, quirkier, and more willing to turn its back on establishment candidates of both parties. Since 1988, no non-incumbent Democrat or Republican who has won a New Hampshire primary has gone on to win the Presidency.

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Related:
Chris Christie’s Gone, but the G.O.P. Race Will Go On and On
The Fake Donald Trump Movie Isn’t Funny Enough
The Clintons Have Lost the Working Class

Opinion Polls Matter—Even When They’re Wrong

Given that opinion polls failed to predict the result of the Republican caucus in Iowa, it might be wise not to place too much stress on what they’re saying about the New Hampshire primaries tomorrow night. We can’t simply ignore the polls, though. Often, they turn out be right, or right enough, and they help to set expectations for all of the candidates. Whether these expectations are surpassed sometimes matters as much as the actual result.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Donald Trump’s Business Record Demands More Scrutiny
What We Learned from the Donald Trump-Marco Rubio Screamfest
The Dilemma of Conservatives Who Say They’ll Never Vote for Donald Trump

Opinion Polls Matter—Even When They’re Wrong

Given that opinion polls failed to predict the result of the Republican caucus in Iowa, it might be wise not to place too much stress on what they’re saying about the New Hampshire primaries tomorrow night. We can’t simply ignore the polls, though. Often, they turn out be right, or right enough, and they help to set expectations for all of the candidates. Whether these expectations are surpassed sometimes matters as much as the actual result.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
The Two Marco Rubios
Christie Quits Race to Focus on Tormenting Rubio
Chris Christie’s Last Stand

Chris Christie Mugs Marco Rubio at the G.O.P. Debate

The motto of Saint Anselm College, the small Catholic institution in Manchester, New Hampshire, where the latest G.O.P. debate was held, on Saturday night, is “Where history meets opportunity.” As the evening unfolded, however, things worked the other way around. Senator Marco Rubio, of Florida, who, according to many pundits, has a great opportunity to be the Republican candidate, ran into a fellow from New Jersey with a long history, Chris Christie. The outcome wasn’t pretty.

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Related:
Chris Christie Versus Everyone Else
Donald Trump Stands by As His Debate Rivals Hit One Another
Hillary Clinton Should Play to Her Strengths

Hillary Clinton Should Play to Her Strengths

Twice in two nights now, the voters of New Hampshire (and television viewers across the nation) have had a chance to see Hillary Clinton answering questions at length. At times, she has looked like the President-in-waiting that she was supposed by many to be: smart, knowledgeable, persuasive. At other times, particularly when, during Thursday’s MSNBC debate, she accused Bernie Sanders of orchestrating a smear campaign against her, Clinton has appeared a bit rattled.

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Related:
The New Hampshire Primary Is All About Bernie
Sanders Admits Receiving Free Checking from Big Banks
The Big Money Question at the Sanders-Clinton Debate

Bernie Sanders and the New Populism

From up close, election campaigns appear to be messy and contingent affairs that pivot around individual characters and tactics. Did Donald Trump make an error, after all, in skipping last week’s Fox News debate? Can Marco Rubio handle the spotlight? Will Hillary Clinton shift further left to counter Bernie Sanders?

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Related:
Hillary Clinton Is No Obama
Santorum Launches 2020 Campaign
Eight Days in New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders Just Changed the Democratic Party

After a remarkable night in Iowa, one that served as a rebuke to Donald Trump and to the opinion pollsters, the Democratic Party was faced with the prospect of confronting a youthful and articulate Republican candidate come November: Senator Marco Rubio, who finished a strong third in the G.O.P. caucus, behind Ted Cruz and Trump. Before then, though, Democrats have some messy internal business to deal with: Bernie Sanders, promoting an American version of “people power,” has confirmed his capture of the Party’s under-forty wing, which means trouble for Hillary Clinton.

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Related:
Should Millennials Get Over Bernie Sanders?
Bernie Sanders Knows What Time It Is
Ted Cruz Wins Iowa, Trump Loses—for Now

Cassidy’s Count: Polls Point to Victories for Trump and Clinton in Iowa

If the opinion polls are right, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be celebrating victories in the Iowa caucuses, on Monday night. All of the voter surveys carried out in the past week have shown them in the lead. Of course, the polls could be wrong. Iowa is a notoriously tough place to poll, and much depends on how many new voters Trump and Bernie Sanders can get to the caucuses. But, the day before the vote, Trump and Clinton are the favorites to come out on top.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Hillary Clinton Should Play to Her Strengths
The New Hampshire Primary Is All About Bernie
Sanders Admits Receiving Free Checking from Big Banks

Cassidy’s Count: Polls Point to Victories for Trump and Clinton in Iowa

If the opinion polls are right, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be celebrating victories in the Iowa caucuses, on Monday night. All of the voter surveys carried out in the past week have shown them in the lead. Of course, the polls could be wrong. Iowa is a notoriously tough place to poll, and much depends on how many new voters Trump and Bernie Sanders can get to the caucuses. But, the day before the vote, Trump and Clinton are the favorites to come out on top.

See the rest of the story at newyorker.com

Related:
Ted Cruz’s Iowa Mailers Are More Fraudulent Than Everyone Thinks
Richard Dreyfuss, Glenn Beck, Ted Cruz, and Lady Gaga in Iowa
John Kasich and the Fading Republican Establishment