Siddharth Srivastava's Blog, page 6

Cops did not arrest Prajapati, political events did

The big news following the BJP’s victory in UP is the arrest of absconding minister Gayatri Prajapati who has been accused of rape. The custody followed a mini chor police charade by the cops who interrogated his sons and a nephew to know about his whereabouts. Homework done, the cops proudly smoked Prajapati out of his hideout. Prior to the election results police were not able to trace Prajapati for many weeks.

Like Charles Sobhraj or Osama Bin Laden, the slippery Prajapati seemed to have disappeared into thin air. It is another matter that until CM Akhilesh Yadav was in power the cops would not have found Prajapati even if he watched TV news inside his own house. It is fortuitous that Prajapati’s influence and area of operation is limited to UP and Akhilesh, or else by now he could have been hobnobbing with Vijay Mallya in the UK.

The authorities would have belatedly flashed dozens of worthless non bailable warrants executable only in India. In the past relatives of an accused were beaten to pulp by the police to extract information. In the new age connected world, such method have become passe.

The relatives of any criminal on the run cooperate fully to avoid their backsides being sprayed with chilli powder. Unless, of course, you happen to be a bahubali like Prajapati empowered with a political hotline to the CM. You can then make the thana your home, the SHO your factotum and never be arrested. Good cops exist.

I am currently reading Veerappan: Chasing the Brigand, a riveting account of the valour and sacrifices made by the Tamil Nadu Special Task Force to finally nail the feared bandit.

I also happened to belatedly watch the movie Pink after reading reports that the movie was recently screened for our highly regarded President Pranab Mukherjee.

It is during the court proceedings that the film makes its most potent points about the right of a woman to say, “No” to a man. In the real world, there is the high likelihood that the hearing would have never happened.  For every instance of Jessica Lal or Asaram Bapu that are taken up due to scrutiny by the media or the higher courts, there are hundreds, maybe thousands of heinous crimes that never traverse beyond the police station. “With you for you always,” sounds very good, unless one is faced with the money and power equations in the coarse fine print, “Either you bend or make me bend over.”  And, if the case does get registered, it can mark the beginning of another set of bigger problems as the three harassed girls in Pink realised.

For one, there is no guarantee that the judicial process will end in a hurry. We still do not know whether Salman Khan and Saif Ali Khan killed the black buck. In the meantime, Saif has married the second, or maybe the third time, become father again. I can bet my brand new and precious fitness watch that Saif will be grandfather and Salman’s films will continue to do well for unfathomable reasons, by the time it is definitely known to the world whether they shot the black buck. My watch is totally safe. The dead black buck could easily have been a poor person whose family waited unendingly for justice. It happens all the time. India is in desperate need for judicial and administrative reforms.

The system needs to be clinical, impartial and efficient instead of pandering to the political currents of the day. Acche Din can happen only when a Muslim, Yadav, Jat, non-Yadav OBC, Dalit, Brahmin or Christian is guaranteed his or her fundamental rights by the authorities deputed to protect, irrespective of the political party in power.

Sadly, we are still a long distance away from such a paradigm to emerge. In the meantime folks like Prajapati will hope the political headwinds change following which the cops will again not be able to find him, though he will be right there in Lucknow, roaming freely, along with his cronies in crime.

Modi Is the New Bachchan: BJP’s Triple Century in UP is a Stunner!

Now, that the assembly elections are over, it is easy to analyse why Modi won and others lost. There is also a lesson for the future, particularly 2019, about the kind of subjects that should not be deployed by political outfits against Modi as they will simply not work.

Lets begin with demonetisation, Modi’s attempt to root out black money that should have backfired politically, but did not happen. Over many weeks economists, analysts and the forgotten Raghuram Rajan laid out facts and figures about the failure of demonetisation.

Suddenly stripped of cash, the voters were expected to vent their frustrations by voting against Modi. To everybody’s surprise, it did not turn out that way in UP, Uttarakhand and earlier in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Odisha. There is a line of thought that a perverse psychology has been at play, which even Modi could not have hypothesised. The masses, it seems, derived pleasure in discomfort of the rich and powerful, even if it was transient.

Yet, confident about the demonising impact of demonetisation, the mainstream media chose to fall in love with the youthful charms of middle-aged ladke Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav. There was even mention that RaGa has finally found his political mojo by sounding mature, while the good looking Akhilesh and family became the Obama’s of UP.

The Gandhi-Yadav duo was always more pleasing to play up than the dour Amit Shah, whose most acceptable profile approximates a maths professor, specialising in caste and communal calculations that mostly adds up to a winning number. Shah’s contribution to TRP’s, as opposed to seats, can never be very exciting. But, looks can go so far in politics, otherwise Bollywood stars would be our elected representatives and Aamir Khan PM.

Post UP, there is no doubt the opposition will need to introspect their failure to take on the Modi juggernaut that is fast spreading all over the country. Modi’s UP triple century is not just a massive score, it is also a Sehwag kind of performance in which the opposition has been decimated. As in the case of Sehwag’s innings, there is method in the madness.

Over the recent past Modi has successfully usurped the country’s political discourse, good or bad, whether it succeeds or does not. In the 80s, the draw of Amitabh Bachchan was such that the great actor essayed all roles in the same movie. Bachchan romanced the heroine, sang songs, danced around trees, performed the item numbers; he was the angry young man, action hero, comedian, villain in double role and so on. The producers were clear: they wanted Big B to be present in every shot of the movie.

The rest of the actors and actresses, as Rishi Kapoor has lamented in his recently released biography, were left twiddling their thumbs. Modi, like Bachchan, has become a one man industry, a message relentlessly underlined by an efficient marketing machinery that ensures the PM occupies screen space 24/7. He fights terror by authorising surgical strikes on Pakistan, crusades against corruption by banning notes, pumps more money into pro-poor and rural development schemes, ensures sunlight converts into solar power, beams himself into a Coldplay concert to appeal to urban youth or exhorts them study hard on mann ki baat.

Modi models for Reliance Jio to endorse a massive freebie, well, you can say, without costing the exchequer anything. Government departments buttress the persona by promoting his ideas such as digital India, Swachh Bharat, Mudra Yojana, the list goes on.

And, when the need arises, Modi can be banked upon deliver a hard hitting anti-hero kabristan-shamshaan narrative to retain polarisation in the mix. Other politicians, like thespians of the 80s, are twiddling their thumbs, reduced to side roles as Twitter memes, with RaGa and Kejriwal the lead characters of Internet caricaturing. Indeed, as things stand, it would probably be wise that Modi’s competitors prepare for 2024, as the eloquent Omar Abdullah has said.

Karan Johar is Sonam; Kangana Ranaut is King Khan

Unlike in cricket, there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics and Bollywood. For now Karan Johar and Kangana Ranaut do not see eye to eye.

As a matter of fact Johar, who has smoothly occupied our collective consciousness the way Arnab Goswami did till recently, wants to banish the actress from Bollywood, the manner the Pandavas were sent off to the jungles in Ramayan.

We have not heard from Ranaut and it is quite likely that we will not for sometime as Rangoon has flopped despite the grubby love making scenes in Arunachal Pradesh where the movie was shot. But, be sure Kangana will wait for an opportune moment to hit back fiercely, as is her wont, possibly after her next hit, which will surely happen, given her immense talent. It is likely that her riposte will not happen over Koffee With Karan.

It will then be the turn for Johar to smile sheepishly again as he did on his show, pre-Rangoon, when Ranaut was ostensibly on the way to the top, possibly even crowned as the fourth Khan of Bollywood.Back of his mind, it probably did occur to Johar, when he graciously grimace giggled and Taimur Ali Khan’s father Saif almost squirmed off the sofa, that Ranaut could actually be the next Queen Khan.

After all in Bollywood only a Khan can take on another Khan in the box office, TV or Twitter. And we all know that Johar can be quite flexible if it suits him like he was when he faced a situation with Raj Thackeray, the only politician in the country who becomes more important after every election he loses.

Others, including Modi, Gandhi, Yadav, Kejriwal need to learn from Raj. Right now, of course, Johar has taken the politically incorrect stand of attacking a woman who is clearly down. Or maybe we have got it all wrong in our befuddled brains, in the sense that Johar thinks that he is actually taking on a man; or is it two women squabbling with each other, which again cannot be ruled out following the revelations that Johar has made in his tome An Unsuitable Boy. It is true that Johar has become a father, but he does speak like my caring and nurturing mother. Indeed, the world has become a complex place today.

Karan could actually be a Sonam within, while Ranaut could actually be hosting a Khan inside. In which case the roles are reversed and we should be feeling sorry for Karan instead of Kangana as it is political correct to do in today’s scenario.

The real Kangana, however, need not fret. She should remember that even King Shahrukh Khan had to struggle his way up right from the bottom. And, he belonged to no camp, was bequeathed with no movie genes, thus totally ineligible for nepotism and backdoor entry to Bollywood via assembly line outfits such as Dharma Productions. Johar has successfully milked the formulaic Hindi movie business model that he inherited from his father; Kangana has challenged the status quo in her roles and also prospered.

Both know every Friday a new release hits the screens, setting off another weekend of numbers and charts. Kangana might be ruled out by Karan and his coterie, but there will be others willing to offer her the DRS lifeline which she will hopefully use more wisely than Virat Kohli. No doubt, she will need to be play her cards carefully, with the Big Shark Karan Johar gunning for her back.

Maybe, like a man she should smile sheepishly and let Johar’s verbal take down pass till she owns the box office arithmetics to speak her mind again, even as others are blown off their seats or politely grimace giggle, fearing that she is a Khan in the making. That is life, whether you are man or woman, inside corporate boardrooms or acting in a movie.

Why Sehwag chose the wrong ball to hit

I would not say Virendra Sehwag and Yogeshwar Dutt are illiterate. In don’t know who Randeep Hooda is, so cannot comment on his literacy levels. I would, however, say that Dutt and Sehwag clearly do not understand the nuances of the English language like Shashi Tharoor does. This does not make the two sporting icons unintelligent or inferior beings by any stretch, as the supremely learned Javed Akhtar has insinuated. Sehwag’s wit is often as natural and brilliant as his batting, that has made him a Twitter sensation.

The batsman turned social media  Nawab has effectively monetised his virtual presence, which goes to show that he knows a bit about online money creation. Many loss-making e-commerce unicorns have failed to do the same over years. Indeed, had Gurmehar Kaur uploaded “Pakistan did not kill my dad, war killed him,” in America or UK, where English is the staple language, most would have understood the crux of what she wanted to convey. The bigger enemy is always war, irrespective of the countries involved.

Families suffer on both sides. There are of course exceptions such as Donald Trump found anywhere in the planet who propound preposterous thoughts such as all Muslims are terrorists unless it is proven otherwise to immigration.

While Gurmehar, an English literature student of LSR, a top college, is adept at the language, the dynamics between India and Pakistan is layered and complex, which is never easy to fully fathom. This again is no reflection about her intellectual ability as Indo-Pak is a difficult subject that analysts have studied over their lifetime, without finding solutions. For instance when we talk about Pakistan, do we see it from the prism of vast sections who want peace. Or do we look at it as a failed state, where the Army, the ISI and non-state elements control strategy, politics, foreign policy and plotted the Kargil war. Or do we see it as the residence of handsome cricketer Imran Khan whom Indian women cheered in the past.

In an ideal world, it would have behooved better if Gurmehar’s post was perceived as just semantics, deserving of sympathy and sensitivity, given the fact the young girl has grown up without a father, who died defending us against an enemy that played dirty. Unfortunately, we do not live in simple times, anymore. Sehwag’s swipe at Gurmehar was innocuous. In hindsight it was perhaps the wrong subject to pick. In cricketing parlance, it would have been best if he let the ball pass rather than provide free fodder for the right wing opportunists to take centre stage.

These are the chaps who like to proudly label themselves as Modi bhakts, gau rakshaks, upholders of our national esteem and anthem, protectors of our rich cultural moorings. Unlike our brave soldiers who face real bullets, these cowards wage a virtual war glued to their laptops or mobile phones. These finger happy cretins want to fool us into believing that they are saving India online. They love to pick on soft targets such as Gurmehar, who can be browbeaten, abused, forced to apologise and retreat.

The fact that Gurmehar is a young girl speaking her mind, angers the misogynists even more. In their vacuous world view all women need to be shown their place, often violently. It is a pattern that has been repeated in the past, whether to hector Bollywood, Sania Mirza or MF Hussain. Alarmingly, over the recent past, the bullies are becoming bolder as they believe that they have the establishment in the form of the BJP, RSS and the Modi government on their side.

This basically means the cops choose to look the other way. It is an unsavoury trend that needs to be checked. For a start, Tharoor, Sehwag and Akhtar should deploy their wit or felicity with the language, Hindi or English, to show the hyper nationalist their place, which is inside a gutter full of crap and sewerage.

In defence of Black Money

India’s annual budget for 2017-18 takes forward the government’s crusade against black money, a process that was sought to be elevated to a new level by the demonetisation exercise in November, though there is increasing evidence now that it was a needless measure that caused distress to too many. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s fourth Budget has underlined the resolve of the government to continue the crack down on the evil tax evaders amongst us. Many have peacefully co-existed for years in the form of traders and shopkeepers, but perhaps not contributed to the exchequer as much as they should by tinkering with their books and running their businesses mostly in cash. Jaitley has announced that high value cash transactions are going to be penalised while there has been an attempt to broaden the tax base. Jaitley as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi have exhorted in various forums that those evading taxes will not be spared, cocksure that this is the kind of high-moral ground that obviously cannot be countered.

While the digital cashless direction that Modi & Jaitley want the Indian economy to progress towards may indeed be unquestionable, the government seems to be getting carried away by its sanctimonious and self-righteous position, in a clever attempt to buttress the politically expedient image as the do-gooder and protector of poor.

In Jaitley’s budget, humongous amounts continue to be pumped into leaky and suspect rural employment programs such as MNREGA. There is a direct tax benefit for masses of salaried chaprasis that populate the lowest echelons of the government hierarchy and are notorious as the most lethargic in executing their duties.

The small and medium enterprises, that survive on thin margins, have perhaps been rightly awarded with some tax relief. High agriculture income earners continue to be a category no FM will ever dare to touch.  At the same time Jaitley has sought to deepen the government’s self-created Robin Hood portrait of crusading against the rich, whether salaried or corporate majors, who will need to pay taxes between 30 to 35%, apart from the innumerable cess’s that have been added on over the years. Rahul Gandhi’s attacks on the government are mostly dismissed as inane and silly. However, name-calling the Modi government as suit boot ki sarkar seems to have pinched somewhere.

In the guise of “equity” Jaitley has slapped an unreasonable 10% surcharge on those earning salaries between Rs 50 lakhs to Rs 1 crore. The extra money does not add much to the government kitty, but does severely penalise a small section of hard working corporate executives. The salaried, as has been emphasised, are the most tax burdened as they have the least flexibility to play around with the money they earn, unlike, say, self-employed professionals such as doctors or lawyers.

While it is noble that Jaitley wants our society to be equitable, the fact remains that in this country progress has for long been defined as the ability to escape the tyranny of abysmal government agencies and services. It is an aspiration that is shared by both the poor and rich. This plays out within households in various ways as incomes increase, including the movement from government to private hospitals or schools, purchasing bikes and cars instead of using unreliable public transport, hiring touts to get the job done, whether it is to procure a driving license or registering a property or paying an expensive CA to handle the overzealous tax department.

As the government fails to deliver in more and more areas, those that earn more pay even more for some of the basic amenities that are taken for granted in most civilised countries. The expenses include back up generators and inverters for power, expensive higher education for kids overseas and even holidays in Europe, America, south east Asia to escape the mess our cities have become. A couple of decades back, left with no choice, thousands headed overseas to improve their lot in what was termed as brain drain.

Modi & Jaitley’s zeal to cleanse the country of tax evaders maybe well meaning, but has conveniently overlooked that any government needs to deliver and be accountable as well. While there will always be the black sheep, holistic tax compliance cannot succeed unless it fulfils a selfish expectation that my hard earned money is being well utilised for personal and then larger benefit. Taxes, after all, involve a quid pro quo.

Indeed, good governance necessarily involves honest attempts to create an ecosystem where the poor and rich can be equal stakeholders in overlapping arenas of public goods, whether it is parks, hospitals or schools. This obviously is the tougher and difficult route to take. As things stand, unfortunately, the government delivery mechanisms do not inspire much, apart from the services of our dedicated armed forces that protect our borders and selflessly conduct rescue and rehabilitation operations when needed.

And, this has nothing to do with Modi & Jaitley.

India’s obsession with speed that kills

Over the recent weeks, a series of crashes that have involved recklessly driven vehicles on Delhi roads, have been disquieting. Two of the crashes have involved rashly driven BMW’s and one an Audi. Five people have died. These instances add to the several other accidents due to rash driving. In April last year, CCTV footage of an out-of-control Mercedes Benz, driven by a juvenile, mowing down a young man crossing the road, made for horrible viewing.

Indian roads and traffic conditions are not equipped to handle speed. So are many behind the wheels of powerful engines that have hit the Indian market, including Porsche, BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, Audi, Lamborghini and more. Anybody who has driven these cars knows that the machines require skilled handling as they can accelerate to very high speeds within few seconds.

Their in-built stability and cruise features makes the driving smooth at very high velocities unlike some of the lower end cars that rattle like a train compartment when the speedometer crosses eighty. This also means that an inexperienced person driving a BMW, could very well be lulled into believing that he or she is moving at a pace that is much less than the actual speed. The dangerous part is that, relatively, the Audi or a Mercedes could be cruising much faster than the rest of the traffic, a recipe for disaster for anybody, those that follow rules and others who do not.

All indicators point towards even more robust machines hitting Indian roads. Bigger and more powerful cars have become the bellwether for upward economic mobility, with cricket and Bollywood stars at the forefront of endorsing and riding very expensive vehicles. In keeping with the distorted ethos, indulgent rich parents hand over the remote car keys to their imprudent and often unhinged kids who rocket about crowded streets, as if they are playing a virtual video game on their PSP, secure in the safety net of airbags, inept judicial process and daddy’s money.

Inevitably, minors and drunk drivers continue to wreak havoc on the roads without a care. A rashly driven auto rickshaw or a bike can cause damage, even kill. However, an impetuously driven high-end heavyweight luxury car, is a disaster waiting to happen. Unfortunately, the mitigating measures so far are just not enough: the laws are lax, traffic management inadequate, PCR vans and autos double up as ambulances in the absence of medical emergency services, while driving licenses are issued without proper vetting. All of this makes Indian roads the most dangerous in the world with 150,000 fatalities every year, exponentially more than the number of people who die due to terrorism, border skirmishes with Pakistan or Maoist violence. Ironically, India’s obsession with speed continues unabated beyond just the roads, without adequate safeguards in place.

The Modi government, for example, is rooting for faster and faster trains without taking necessary measures to upgrade safety. Train coaches are outdated due to which a collision or derailment causes many more deaths and injuries; signalling and track systems of the Indian Railways continue to be archaic, while unmanned crossings need to be plugged urgently.

Four major derailments have happened in the recent past, including the Indore-Patna Express tragedy in November in which 151 passengers died, one of the most disastrous crashes ever; 41 died after the Hirakhand Express derailed last month. Many more have been crippled for life. New Delhi has floated conspiracy theories including sabotage by the Maoist and role of the ISI. The culpability, however, lies with successive Rail ministers over the years who have treated the Indian Railways as a fief to further their political agendas. India needs to check its obsession with speed without requisite pre-emptive measures to arrest the enormous and relentless human massacre.

 

 

Spouses can bring political benefits

Spouses can be political asset or liability. My wife watched the inaugural address of Donald Trump in Washington. Her first reactions were about the smart blue body-hugging dress that Melania Trump wore that, in her opinion, stood out, when compared to the sartorial choices of the well turned out Trump daughters, Ivanka and Tiffany. That does not mean my wife is a supporter of the new President of America and is quite annoyed by some of Trump’s cheesy comments about women in general over the years.

Ivanka could not be liking Melania, is what she said. “Why make your children go through such negative emotions by marrying and re-marrying.”

Barack Obama, of course is the most sorted guy, in her eyes, as among his many other gentlemanly qualities, he is spontaneously conscious and sensitive about Michelle Obama, who looks so happy in his company. Trump, obviously, is not having it easy in the first few days of his presidency. Angry women have taken to the streets in support of Hillary Clinton, which is also a reaction to his perceived misogyny.

The same women could happily ditch Clinton, who has her share of detractors, should the opportunity arise to back the Obama’s again, maybe, in the form of the naturally suave Michelle in the future. Trump needs to play the perception game better, perhaps by holding Melania’s hand often which should not be a problem, or at least wait for her as she gets off the Presidential vehicle from the other side, instead of vaulting off without her. He needs to get more women, apart from those in his immediate family, rooting for him on the streets.

Indeed, the soft power of a supporting spouse can make a difference. Here in India, there is already talk that Akhilesh Yadav has gained currency among women voters in Uttar Pradesh, across caste and class configurations, after wife Dimple Yadav has started to play a more active political role. News reports suggest that Samajwadi Party cadres are already clamouring for Dimple to address their constituency to gain confidence of women voters.

The same, however, cannot be said about Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, whose husband Robert Vadra remains a controversial figure. Should Priyanka take the full political plunge to revive the sagging fortunes of the Congress party, Robert will be in the crosshairs of her opponents. In Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari did become a millstone for Benazir Bhutto. Priyanka will need to  quickly learn from the ways of her grandmother, Indira Gandhi, who carefully nurtured her emotional connect with women voters, who remained her staunch supporters for most of her political career. In Tamil Nadu too, the late Jayalalithaa counted on the fairer sex to cobble the numbers.

It also goes without saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a consummate exponent of the perception game in politics, does make it a point to make it known to the world, whenever he meets his mother.

This is not to say that Modi does not love or respect his mother, or wants to use her as a tool to further his cause. However, a political leader displaying a softer, more sensitive side does add to the persona which Modi knows well.

And not without reason. There is evidence to show that women, anywhere in the world, exercise their own choice during elections, that may be different from the way the rest of the family, including the menfolk might have voted.

Factors that can impact include immediate family and personal concerns such as safety, health, nutrition or education. Chief minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar, for instance, is aware that prohibition has the unqualified support of women, especially in rural areas, as they are the ones who face the brunt of a drunk and often violent husband.

Of course, there are always exceptions to the rule. I have not met any woman and some men too who does not say that Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, is the most consummate man in the world to be father, husband and lover, as the case maybe.

Some think the same about George Clooney and also Shahrukh Khan.

(My new ebook Blogging the 40s is available here)

 

The changing political narrative of Uttar Pradesh

The political narrative in India is always in a state of flux. The significant Uttar Pradesh State elections are no different. For long a cauldron of the most vicious form of caste and communal politics, the state could be moving towards a more class-based voting pattern that can upend the  way politics has played out till now. This is not to say that the dynamics of the past are going to be unshackled in a hurry; however, the movement even if slight could make the difference between winner and loser, the BJP or the Samajwadi Party, the two most likely contenders to form the government.

In many ways Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation bombshell in November has hastened the process of change, by pressing notebandi as pro-poor, whether BC, OBC, dalit, or upper caste, favouring the tax-paying salaried middle class; as  anti rich, trader, middlemen and agents such as property dealers who have vitiated society by promoting dirty cash. The government machinery disseminated in multiple methods the same message: demonetisation trapped the corrupt and wealthy who misuse their influential positions to siphon off black money that rightfully belongs to the people via the government. The ubiquitous mobile phone, smart or otherwise, has been positioned as a lethal weapon in the hands of the masses, the Brahmastra, to destruct the evil and mighty by enabling cashless transactions. It is unclear how exactly this works rationally, except making it easier to pay an Uber fare or a kirana purchase; at the same time the poor employed in millions by the informal sector are perhaps the most distressed by demonetisation. But this hardly matters provided the communication is woven right has been the belief of the establishment. The power is in the message, not the substance.

It did seem for a while that Modi was running away with the neatly packaged class-narrative, until Akhilesh Yadav emerged. In many ways, Akhilesh in 2017 is what Modi was three to four years back: taking on the old guard that ruled the BJP in the form of ageing leaders such as LK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha, Arun Shourie.

They were figuratively upgraded as margdarshaks but literally shown the door. Modi successfully spun the acche din motif around growth and governance to become the new ruler of the Delhi Durbar. Akhilesh is doing the same in UP, except in the Yadav family political enterprise, he has had to flush out satraps within the family in the form of envious uncles, ambitious cousins and scheming sisters-in-law. His father is crafty and inscrutable as ever. It is still not clear who Mulayam Singh Yadav is backing.

Did he play his cards in such a way that he could be outmanoeuvred by his son, while at the same time appear to be on the other side? Nobody will know, unless Mulayam like Karan Johar or Rishi Kapoor decides to spill the beans in a Khullam Khulla book, which is very unlikely. Akhilesh, meanwhile, is drumming up the same themes that were deployed by Modi in 2014 to ride to absolute power, growth and governance, to good effect and emotional connect with the masses. It is often said that the Indian electorate ponders carefully before voting, but, not without putting his or her heart also into it.

There is an innate recognition of good versus evil, which is what makes innumerable serials on Ramayana or Mahabharata so popular. In the past Indira Gandhi carefully cultivated the protector of the poor persona; even Manmohan Singh won votes for the Congress Party in 2009 by putting his job on the line over the civilian nuclear deal with USA; the late Jayalalithaa had the masses rooting for her due to well-delivered welfare schemes, including Amma canteens.  By taking on the thugs and criminals in the party, a clean youthful image working in his favour, Akhilesh has the momentum going for him. The SP-Congress tie-up provides the kind of protective umbrella that will appeal to Muslim voters. Another big plus for the ballooning Akhilesh persona is the absence of a BJP leader of substance at the state level to challenge him head to head.

Modi cannot be CM and PM at the same time given his travel schedules; the nitty gritty of managing UP, a nation within a country, is a humongous task. Meanwhile BSP supremo Mayawati needs to re-invent herself. Details about her family bank accounts are unseemly; her track record as a good administrator who controlled lawlessness will  not be enough; the symbolic statues of the past will count for nothing when her primary opponent promises much more. The UP battle is still wide open. The BJP has to get its strategy right by keeping it simple. Perhaps, Modi has overcomplicated his role. As in cricket, he needs to go back to the basics, play with a straight bat in the V and focus on the twin platforms that have worked in the past: growth and governance.

(Check out my new ebook Blogging the 40s)

Another Virat to take on Modi

The other day I walked into an ATM near my house in Gurgaon, a Delhi suburb. It was eerily quiet and deserted; a drowsy, bored guard was sitting inside, his gaze fixed on the cell phone screen that featured a Bollywood dance number; “Cash hai, sahab, nikaal lo,” he said without looking up, yawning a few times in the duration that I took to withdraw.

Sometime back the same ATM was mostly without money; and when there was some a long-queue snaked through the night. A few concerned households in the area offered tea, coffee and biscuits to those stranded with empty wallets post the November demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes. After December 30, the situation has improved considerably though not entirely sorted. The jury is still out on the electoral impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to ban high value notes.

It is likely to be tested during the upcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur, comprising a huge chunk of the Indian population. Some indicators will emerge: whether people are miffed due to the hardships or back the move that has been officially justified by multiple reasons to rebuff the critical and varied narrative that has played out in the media and TV screens.

The initial official versions spelled out by Modi and the rest included fighting terror, counterfeiting, black money, smuggling; later fire fighting by the overactive government machinery has impressed that cashless economy is the way forward for the poor to escape exploitation though one tends to believe that education, health, skill and employment are more fundamental parameters that can catapult the country forward.

E-wallets and UPI can at best be important facilitators provided the basics of doing business are already good. Over the last few weeks I have had random conversations with a segment of the population, the so called underclass, among the most physically and mentally distressed by the sudden decision to ban the notes. The folks include cooks, maids, drivers, gardeners, security guards, waiters, who are psychologically most comfortable with cash-in-hand, rather than an entry in the passbook or PayTM account. This category of menial, uneducated but by no means stupid or unintelligent workers arrive from villages in Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh; they service India’s burgeoning city-based middle and upper middle classes, who avail of the cheap labour to feel like minor Maharaja’s and Maharani’s housed in their three or four bedroom high rise apartments within gated areas. Based on feedbacks, it does seem that the underclass has managed to survive as they have always done.

For them, standing in queues is no big deal, they do it all the time at bus stops, to buy train tickets; now it happens to be ATMs that the media has chosen to focus upon; the poor are inured to getting pushed around, treated badly by employers, short changed at shoddy government hospitals and schools. Post demonetisation, skewed mindsets are, however, definitely at play. There is some satisfaction that others not like them, the middle classes and perhaps the rich too, are inconvenienced.

Which means that many more are getting a taste of what the deprived have been braving forever, that is standing unendingly in lines. Black money is a concern. News is followed closely given easy access to cellphones, free Reliance Jio data cards, radio, sometimes TV. Politics, cricket and Bollywood are the known obsessions of most.

There is happiness when authorities seize illegally stashed new or old notes or the hawk-eyed income tax department freezes bank accounts due to unwarranted cash movements. Stories of black sheep bank and government officials playing complicit roles by helping the evaders are universally condemned as betrayal, desh se gaddari, especially when so many, including elderly have died waiting for their turn at ATMs.

Does this mean that demonetisation will be a winning formula for Modi, the game changer in the state elections? The answer is not so simple. The electorate knows his/her vote is precious; there has to be a quid pro quo. This can take the form of a sense of empowerment along caste or religious loyalties in the absence of a better choice; definite promise of a better future via development and good governance that Modi so nicely marketed in 2014 can work; so can freebies that the late Jayalalithaa became so good at over the years. Demonetisation is abstract, still in the air, a cat and mouse game in which nobody is sure who has emerged winner. Or, has everybody lost. It cannot be a clincher in winning elections. Modi clearly has to do more. But, in the absence of an effective choice, a leader of equal standing, he might just get away.

Sadly, pretenders to India’s top political throne do not inspire much: Rahul Gandhi treats the process as a part time job while Arvind Kejriwal has to work on re-inventing his image of being a Modi troll. They need to learn from Virat Kohli. It is due to stunning performances over the years that Kohli has replaced the great MS Dhoni, winner of two World Cups.

(Take a look at my new book Blogging the 40s)

Why India needs a Virat Kohli to take on Modi and his demonetisation

The following is link to my latest piece published in DailyO

Why India needs a Virat Kohli to take on Modi and his demonetisation