Dan Ronco's Blog
July 5, 2011
Free Ebooks
For the month of July, 2011, my scifi thrillers PeaceMaker and Unholy Domain are available as free downloads on Smashwords.com.
June 5, 2011
Smashwords
PeaceMaker and Unholy Domain are now available in a variety of formats on Smashwords, the popular ebook website. The formats are HTML or Javascript (for online reading), Epub download (the open industry standard), PDF download (another popular standard), RTF download (good for most word processors), LRF download (for Sony Reader), PDB (for Palm reading devices), and Plain Text. Kindle versions may be purchased at Amazon. PeaceMaker is just 99 cents while Unholy Domain sells for $2.99. The last novel of the trilogy, 2031: The Singularity Pogrom, may be purchased at Amazon for $5.99. Each site allows a free download of the first few chapters.
April 17, 2011
A View of United States Energy Supplies in 2028
A Desperate Conversation
Jeff Casale and Lisa Mitchell are security consultants engaging in a distressed conversation with the President and National Security Advisor in 2028. The subject is the country’s desperate energy situation.
I fear something like this conversation may take place in the not too distant future.
At the far end of the office a woman stared into a three-cubic-foot hologram that floated just above her mahogany paneled desk. Jeff couldn’t quite make out the images in the hologram, but it seemed to be a control room with several men wearing white laboratory coats.
“Ms. Walker,” her secretary said. “Your guests are here.”
Helen Walker was President Clarke’s National Security Advisor, and in Jeff’s opinion, one of the most capable people in government. He had worked several contracts with her and they got along well, unusual for him. Most government bureaucrats annoyed him and he didn’t hide his feelings. Helen Walker was different.
“Jeff, so good to see you,” Helen called out.
“How they hanging, Helen.”
Dressed in a dark grey pants suit and white blouse, Helen came around her desk and walked toward them, She was forty-six, medium height and maintained a trim figure that always caught his eye. Short brown hair framed an attractive, intelligent face. He thought she would be a knockout if she paid more attention to makeup and clothes, but maybe her job dictated a conservative appearance. Regardless, she was a heavy hitter in the administration.
Helen gave him a hug and then turned to Lisa. “You must be Miss Mitchell.”
“A pleasure to meet you, Ms. Walker. Please call me Lisa.”
Helen said, “Jeff speaks highly of you.”
“He does?”
“Yes, he says you’re not half bad at your job, high praise coming from him.” Helen smiled at Jeff. “I don’t believe I’ve ever heard him say a nice thing about anyone else.”
Jeff said, “I’m hard on the outside but just a creampuff on the inside.”
Helen chuckled. “Okay, creampuff, let’s get down to business. Please sit down; we have a great deal to discuss.”
Jeff and Lisa sat in a blue camelback sofa, while Helen took the tan Mary Washington chair next to them. The office, conservatively furnished with a brass chandelier and cherry bookcase, had more of a big government feel than the colonial look Helen was aiming for. Not that it mattered.
“Everything I speak of today is highly confidential, and you can’t disclose it to anyone, even employees of your company.” Helen said. “First I’ll tell you the punch line and then I’ll present all the logic leading up to our decision.” She paused and then said, “Jeff, we want you and your company to take over security for all our nuclear plants under development. We also want you to review security for all the existing plants.”
“But Helen, I don’t know squat---”
She signaled him to stop. “I know nuclear security isn’t your area of expertise. Hear me out.”
Jeff glanced at Lisa, who was staring intently at Helen. Nuclear power! Dental x-rays made him nervous.
“It’s no secret that we are running out of oil,” Helen said. “Our economy is based upon cheap energy, which is primarily generated from oil, natural gas, coal and to a lesser extent, nuclear power. Oil and gas are non-renewable fossil fuels that are rapidly being depleted.”
“I stopped for gas this morning,” Jeff said. “Cost me $28 a gallon.” He smiled. “Which I intend to bill to your department.”
A young aide entered with a silver coffee service, placed the tray on the coffee table and then quietly left the room. Jeff preferred tea, but coffee was better than nothing, so he poured a cup.
“World oil production peaked in 2010,” Helen said. “We had extracted roughly half of all the oil in the world. Located in big fields on land and off the coasts, this was the oil easiest to drill, extract and refine. As the good stuff became scarce, the world concentrated its efforts on tar sands and oil shale. Since this type of oil is solid, it’s incredibly difficult to recover. At this time, we have used most of even that gunk.
“Since 2010, oil production has declined by more than 80%, which has pushed oil prices through the roof. Opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the coastal oil fields off Alaska helped somewhat, but oil production has peaked there, too. We don’t anticipate any major new oil fields, so production will continue to decline, making gasoline the scarce, very expensive fuel you so eloquently pointed out. Basically, our trucks and cars are dinosaurs; in another ten to fifteen years, the combustion engine will be an antique. All the usable oil may be gone.”
“What about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?” Jeff asked. “I thought we had a billion barrels of oil stored in salt caverns.”
Helen didn’t respond at first, then said, “Let’s say we don’t have as much oil stored there as many believe.”
“Shit,” Jeff breathed.
“And whatever we have there will be used for producing medical products, fertilizer, keeping the internet repaired and building nuclear power plants. Most people don’t realize that oil isn’t just used for gas and heating.”
“Without gasoline, how do we ship food to the stores?” Lisa asked. “How do we commute to our jobs?”
“We have a solution, but it will be difficult,” Helen said. “And you have yet to hear the worst of our problem.
“Next, consider the natural gas situation. When I say natural gas, I mean methane, which makes up about 75% of the gas used commercially.” She paused, and then said, “I’ll skip the details --- the problem is that it is very expensive to extract and transport in North America. In addition, it’s a dirty fuel, not as dirty as coal, but it will still foul the environment. We have more gas than oil, but we believe that economic gas reserves have peaked as well.
“So we import natural gas from Russia and the Middle East,” Jeff said with a shrug. “What’s the problem?”
“Their natural gas supplies are becoming depleted, so they have drastically cut back exports. Our supply of natural gas will be virtually gone in twenty to thirty years.”
“I didn’t realize natural gas was being depleted so quickly,” Lisa said. The room was quiet as she poured a cup of coffee.
Ten to fifteen years, Jeff thought. Our economy will collapse. It’ll be worse than FDR’s depression.
“You’re not going to tell us we’re running out of coal, too?” Jeff asked.
“No, we have plenty of coal --- that’s not the problem. We get almost half our electricity by burning coal, but it’s a dirty fuel. Coal generates toxic air pollution, you know, heavy metals, carbon dioxide, all manner of filth. We’ve cleaned it somewhat over the years, but coal will always be dirty. I’d hate to breathe the air of a country that relied on coal for all its energy.”
Helen’s voice dropped and Jeff had to concentrate to pick up her words. “Coal mining is also hugely destructive to the environment. Strip mining destroys our land and poisons our water. It also spits out carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which may lead to climate change. Any way you look at it, coal has big problems.”
“Which brings us to the subject of today’s meeting?” Jeff asked.
“Yes, nuclear power, while far from perfect, is our best option.” Her voice remained low. “It’s clean, uranium is plentiful, spent fuel can be reprocessed, and modern breeder reactors create more fuel than they burn. The safety record for nuclear plants in the US is excellent, although nobody can overlook the disasters in Japan and the Ukraine. It’s not a total solution; nuclear power can charge batteries for plug-in electric vehicles, but batteries are impractical for airplanes, except for short flights by small planes. We would have to conserve our remaining oil for airlines and the military.”
“So you’re planning on building a shitload of nuclear power plants?” Jeff asked. “That’s going to make many of the environmentalists very unhappy.”
“Do you know how many reactors are currently in operation in the US?” Helen asked Jeff, her voice once again strong.
“Not a clue.”
“About one hundred and twenty,” Lisa said.
Helen smiled. “Very good, Lisa. One hundred twenty-seven.”
“How did you know that?” Jeff asked Lisa.
“What you don’t know about me would fill the Grand Canyon.”
A young aide entered the room again and whispered in Helen’s ear.
Helen stood up. “We’re moving the meeting,” she said. “Please come with me.”
After Helen had turned and started walking toward the doorway, Jeff looked at Lisa and shrugged.
Helen led them down the hall, turned left, and then proceeded to the end of the corridor and stopped at an open doorway. Jeff peeked over her shoulder into the Oval Office.
“Mr. President,” Helen said, peering into the room.
Listening to a voice on the speakerphone, a broad-shouldered man with a beefy face looked up. “Come on in,” President Clarke said. “I’ll be with you in a minute.”
Jeff had never been in the Oval Office, but it was just like what he had seen in the movies: creamy white walls, colonial styling, and an ornate presidential desk with the flag behind it. Helen led them in and sat on a plush white sofa, while Jeff and Lisa shuffled past a wooden coffee table to an identical couch.
The man at the desk didn’t look happy. Now in the second year of his administration, President Josh Clarke’s popularity had been falling steadily due to an ongoing recession. Energy costs had risen dramatically, driving inflation into double digits. Waiting lines had been building at gas stations, home heating oil had been rationed in several states, and unemployment was rising.
Clarke quickly finished his telephone conversation and came around his desk to join them. “Pleasure to meet you, Casale,” Clarke said while shaking hands. After greeting Lisa, he sat next to Helen.
Clarke cleared his throat. “Helen tells me that your firm is the best in the security business. That true?”
“Who am I to argue with Helen?” Jeff replied.
“What would you think if I said that I have a job for you?” Clarke asked. “Something like, let’s say, the future of the country depended on your success.”
“I’d say our fees just went up.”
“I’m deadly serious, Casale. I’m betting the country’s future on this project. Your life will be at risk if you take it on.” Clarke glanced at Lisa. “Yours, too.”
“All I know is that this project has something to do with nuclear power,” Jeff replied. “I can’t make a commitment without knowing what’s going on.”
“Fair enough,” Clarke said. “What I’m about to tell you is top secret, but I suppose you already know that.” He paused and took a cigarette from an antique cigarette holder on the coffee table. After lighting up, he said, “You don’t mind, do you?”
Lisa and Jeff shook their heads. Jeff added, “I love smoke. Toughens the lungs.”
A sliver of a smile briefly appeared on Clarke’s lips as he glanced at Helen. “I see what you mean.” He turned back to Jeff. “As I’m sure Helen has explained, the country is running out of energy.” Clarke took a drag on his cigarette, and then said, “The greenies wasted more than twenty years trying to make the so-called renewables into major energy sources. However, sun and wind are too unreliable and inefficient to provide more than twenty percent of our energy. Combined. That leaves a big hole. If we don’t come up with an answer, the computer models predict the US will regress a full century, back to an agrarian society. The automobile will be a memory and most homes will burn coal or wood for warmth. People will fight over scraps of food. Modern medicine will be affordable only by the elite. The models say our population will drop under one hundred million by 2060.
“The only solution is nuclear power. We need to build almost two hundred nuclear power plants over the next two decades just to maintain a reasonably level supply of electricity. This is a tremendous undertaking that will stretch our resources to the limit under the best of circumstances.”
“Two hundred nuclear plants in twenty years?” Lisa said. “That’s about one plant coming online every month, Mr. President.”
“I know it sounds impossible,” the President replied. “But we are going to do it. We wasted years pissing around with wind and solar power. Now we have no other options.”
“It may not be as difficult as it seems,” Helen added. “The design work has been completed for an advanced nuclear reactor. We plan to standardize on a Generation VI design that will shrink construction time to twenty-eight months. It’s called an Integral Fast Reactor, a breeder that produces more fuel than it consumes. A standardized design will also expedite licensing and reduce capital costs.”
“Where will you get the enriched uranium to power two hundred new reactors?” Lisa asked.
Helen looked at the President. “Not just uranium, the Integral Fast Reactor also burns plutonium,” he said. “Military warheads will be recycled to produce mixed oxide fuel specially designed for the new reactors. We’ll also reprocess the waste fuel that has been stored at reactor sites for years.”
“You plan to unilaterally disarm?” Jeff said. “Then what, deter the Chinese and Russians with spitballs. Or maybe I’m just so charming they won’t attack?”
“We don’t think we’ll have to recycle all the warheads,” Helen said. “And once we have a sufficient number of the new breeders in operation, we’ll produce all the fuel we need, and we’ll start building warheads to replace the ones we dismantled.”
“Do you actually have one of these new reactors up and running?” Lisa asked.
“We have a prototype under construction,” Helen replied.
“A prototype! You’re betting the ranch on a prototype?” Jeff said to Helen.
“The physics is well-understood,” Helen said. “Breeders were built by several nations, including us, back in the sixties. The US built a research reactor called the EBR-II in 1964 to demonstrate breeder technology. The reactor was a complete success: it ran for thirty years. During this period, many advances were built into the reactor. It was shut down because of politics, not any real problems.”
“Okay, maybe the technology works,” Jeff said. “There’s still one little-bitty concern: where are you going to find the construction teams to build all these power plants? There are only a handful of corporations that know how to build conventional nuclear plants, let alone this new super-nifty design.”
“See,” Helen said to President Clarke, “I told you he’d zoom in on our weakest point.” She focused on Jeff. “That’s our critical path, Jeff. We are pulling in every construction firm that builds power plants, whether they are focused on natural gas, coal, whatever, and seeding them with engineers from the nuclear industry. We’ll train them in nuclear power and monitor their work tightly until they’re up to speed. Remember, they only have to learn how to construct one type of plant, so they shouldn’t have any major problems.”
“And you want us to provide security for what … as many as a hundred simultaneous construction projects?” Lisa said.
Clarke smiled wistfully. “Not only that. You would also be responsible for security for all the new plants as they go into operation. Listen, I don’t expect you to staff all this work with your own people. We’ll get you anything you need: military, other security firms, subcontractors, whatever it takes. This is essentially the Second Manhattan Project, and you would be responsible for a big chunk of it.”
“We appreciate your confidence in us, Mr. President,” Lisa said, “but why turn security over to a private firm, one with no experience in the nuclear industry?
Clarke glanced at Helen and said, “Because there’s a leak somewhere within the federal government. There are fanatics who don’t want this project to succeed. The lunatic fringe of the environmental movement has coalesced around a leader named Gaia, who has provided the organization and planning lacking in the past. This Gaia has already stolen top secret information and murdered half a dozen people with critical roles in the project. In fact, Helen was almost killed last week. That convinced me that we need someone completely outside both the government and the nuclear industry to head up security. An organization not already penetrated by the fanatics.” He took a drag of his cigarette and said to Jeff, “Helen recommended you.”
“It will be a long and controversial project, Mr. President,” Jeff said. “Will you back us all the way?”
Clarke studied Jeff. “You’ll have my support every step.” He chuckled. “That is, unless you screw up.”
“We’ll need to see your project plans before we make a decision,” Lisa jumped in. “Just the high level documents so we can get a reading ---.”
“We’ll take the job,” Jeff interrupted.
The room was quiet for a moment, and then Clarke said, “I don’t want you to think you’re forced to take this project. I believe in making hard decisions, but it would be okay if you want to take a couple of days to get a better understanding of what we’re asking.”
“No need, we’re on board.”
“I’m surprised you made up your mind so quickly. You’re quite the patriot.”
“Patriot, schmatriot.” Jeff smiled at the President. “If we lose power, how am I going to take my morning shower? You think I’m taking a dip in the Potomac?”
Lisa buried her head in her arms while Helen and Clarke stared at Jeff.
“God help us,” the President said, “the deal is done”.
Jeff Casale and Lisa Mitchell are security consultants engaging in a distressed conversation with the President and National Security Advisor in 2028. The subject is the country’s desperate energy situation.
I fear something like this conversation may take place in the not too distant future.
At the far end of the office a woman stared into a three-cubic-foot hologram that floated just above her mahogany paneled desk. Jeff couldn’t quite make out the images in the hologram, but it seemed to be a control room with several men wearing white laboratory coats.
“Ms. Walker,” her secretary said. “Your guests are here.”
Helen Walker was President Clarke’s National Security Advisor, and in Jeff’s opinion, one of the most capable people in government. He had worked several contracts with her and they got along well, unusual for him. Most government bureaucrats annoyed him and he didn’t hide his feelings. Helen Walker was different.
“Jeff, so good to see you,” Helen called out.
“How they hanging, Helen.”
Dressed in a dark grey pants suit and white blouse, Helen came around her desk and walked toward them, She was forty-six, medium height and maintained a trim figure that always caught his eye. Short brown hair framed an attractive, intelligent face. He thought she would be a knockout if she paid more attention to makeup and clothes, but maybe her job dictated a conservative appearance. Regardless, she was a heavy hitter in the administration.
Helen gave him a hug and then turned to Lisa. “You must be Miss Mitchell.”
“A pleasure to meet you, Ms. Walker. Please call me Lisa.”
Helen said, “Jeff speaks highly of you.”
“He does?”
“Yes, he says you’re not half bad at your job, high praise coming from him.” Helen smiled at Jeff. “I don’t believe I’ve ever heard him say a nice thing about anyone else.”
Jeff said, “I’m hard on the outside but just a creampuff on the inside.”
Helen chuckled. “Okay, creampuff, let’s get down to business. Please sit down; we have a great deal to discuss.”
Jeff and Lisa sat in a blue camelback sofa, while Helen took the tan Mary Washington chair next to them. The office, conservatively furnished with a brass chandelier and cherry bookcase, had more of a big government feel than the colonial look Helen was aiming for. Not that it mattered.
“Everything I speak of today is highly confidential, and you can’t disclose it to anyone, even employees of your company.” Helen said. “First I’ll tell you the punch line and then I’ll present all the logic leading up to our decision.” She paused and then said, “Jeff, we want you and your company to take over security for all our nuclear plants under development. We also want you to review security for all the existing plants.”
“But Helen, I don’t know squat---”
She signaled him to stop. “I know nuclear security isn’t your area of expertise. Hear me out.”
Jeff glanced at Lisa, who was staring intently at Helen. Nuclear power! Dental x-rays made him nervous.
“It’s no secret that we are running out of oil,” Helen said. “Our economy is based upon cheap energy, which is primarily generated from oil, natural gas, coal and to a lesser extent, nuclear power. Oil and gas are non-renewable fossil fuels that are rapidly being depleted.”
“I stopped for gas this morning,” Jeff said. “Cost me $28 a gallon.” He smiled. “Which I intend to bill to your department.”
A young aide entered with a silver coffee service, placed the tray on the coffee table and then quietly left the room. Jeff preferred tea, but coffee was better than nothing, so he poured a cup.
“World oil production peaked in 2010,” Helen said. “We had extracted roughly half of all the oil in the world. Located in big fields on land and off the coasts, this was the oil easiest to drill, extract and refine. As the good stuff became scarce, the world concentrated its efforts on tar sands and oil shale. Since this type of oil is solid, it’s incredibly difficult to recover. At this time, we have used most of even that gunk.
“Since 2010, oil production has declined by more than 80%, which has pushed oil prices through the roof. Opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the coastal oil fields off Alaska helped somewhat, but oil production has peaked there, too. We don’t anticipate any major new oil fields, so production will continue to decline, making gasoline the scarce, very expensive fuel you so eloquently pointed out. Basically, our trucks and cars are dinosaurs; in another ten to fifteen years, the combustion engine will be an antique. All the usable oil may be gone.”
“What about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?” Jeff asked. “I thought we had a billion barrels of oil stored in salt caverns.”
Helen didn’t respond at first, then said, “Let’s say we don’t have as much oil stored there as many believe.”
“Shit,” Jeff breathed.
“And whatever we have there will be used for producing medical products, fertilizer, keeping the internet repaired and building nuclear power plants. Most people don’t realize that oil isn’t just used for gas and heating.”
“Without gasoline, how do we ship food to the stores?” Lisa asked. “How do we commute to our jobs?”
“We have a solution, but it will be difficult,” Helen said. “And you have yet to hear the worst of our problem.
“Next, consider the natural gas situation. When I say natural gas, I mean methane, which makes up about 75% of the gas used commercially.” She paused, and then said, “I’ll skip the details --- the problem is that it is very expensive to extract and transport in North America. In addition, it’s a dirty fuel, not as dirty as coal, but it will still foul the environment. We have more gas than oil, but we believe that economic gas reserves have peaked as well.
“So we import natural gas from Russia and the Middle East,” Jeff said with a shrug. “What’s the problem?”
“Their natural gas supplies are becoming depleted, so they have drastically cut back exports. Our supply of natural gas will be virtually gone in twenty to thirty years.”
“I didn’t realize natural gas was being depleted so quickly,” Lisa said. The room was quiet as she poured a cup of coffee.
Ten to fifteen years, Jeff thought. Our economy will collapse. It’ll be worse than FDR’s depression.
“You’re not going to tell us we’re running out of coal, too?” Jeff asked.
“No, we have plenty of coal --- that’s not the problem. We get almost half our electricity by burning coal, but it’s a dirty fuel. Coal generates toxic air pollution, you know, heavy metals, carbon dioxide, all manner of filth. We’ve cleaned it somewhat over the years, but coal will always be dirty. I’d hate to breathe the air of a country that relied on coal for all its energy.”
Helen’s voice dropped and Jeff had to concentrate to pick up her words. “Coal mining is also hugely destructive to the environment. Strip mining destroys our land and poisons our water. It also spits out carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which may lead to climate change. Any way you look at it, coal has big problems.”
“Which brings us to the subject of today’s meeting?” Jeff asked.
“Yes, nuclear power, while far from perfect, is our best option.” Her voice remained low. “It’s clean, uranium is plentiful, spent fuel can be reprocessed, and modern breeder reactors create more fuel than they burn. The safety record for nuclear plants in the US is excellent, although nobody can overlook the disasters in Japan and the Ukraine. It’s not a total solution; nuclear power can charge batteries for plug-in electric vehicles, but batteries are impractical for airplanes, except for short flights by small planes. We would have to conserve our remaining oil for airlines and the military.”
“So you’re planning on building a shitload of nuclear power plants?” Jeff asked. “That’s going to make many of the environmentalists very unhappy.”
“Do you know how many reactors are currently in operation in the US?” Helen asked Jeff, her voice once again strong.
“Not a clue.”
“About one hundred and twenty,” Lisa said.
Helen smiled. “Very good, Lisa. One hundred twenty-seven.”
“How did you know that?” Jeff asked Lisa.
“What you don’t know about me would fill the Grand Canyon.”
A young aide entered the room again and whispered in Helen’s ear.
Helen stood up. “We’re moving the meeting,” she said. “Please come with me.”
After Helen had turned and started walking toward the doorway, Jeff looked at Lisa and shrugged.
Helen led them down the hall, turned left, and then proceeded to the end of the corridor and stopped at an open doorway. Jeff peeked over her shoulder into the Oval Office.
“Mr. President,” Helen said, peering into the room.
Listening to a voice on the speakerphone, a broad-shouldered man with a beefy face looked up. “Come on in,” President Clarke said. “I’ll be with you in a minute.”
Jeff had never been in the Oval Office, but it was just like what he had seen in the movies: creamy white walls, colonial styling, and an ornate presidential desk with the flag behind it. Helen led them in and sat on a plush white sofa, while Jeff and Lisa shuffled past a wooden coffee table to an identical couch.
The man at the desk didn’t look happy. Now in the second year of his administration, President Josh Clarke’s popularity had been falling steadily due to an ongoing recession. Energy costs had risen dramatically, driving inflation into double digits. Waiting lines had been building at gas stations, home heating oil had been rationed in several states, and unemployment was rising.
Clarke quickly finished his telephone conversation and came around his desk to join them. “Pleasure to meet you, Casale,” Clarke said while shaking hands. After greeting Lisa, he sat next to Helen.
Clarke cleared his throat. “Helen tells me that your firm is the best in the security business. That true?”
“Who am I to argue with Helen?” Jeff replied.
“What would you think if I said that I have a job for you?” Clarke asked. “Something like, let’s say, the future of the country depended on your success.”
“I’d say our fees just went up.”
“I’m deadly serious, Casale. I’m betting the country’s future on this project. Your life will be at risk if you take it on.” Clarke glanced at Lisa. “Yours, too.”
“All I know is that this project has something to do with nuclear power,” Jeff replied. “I can’t make a commitment without knowing what’s going on.”
“Fair enough,” Clarke said. “What I’m about to tell you is top secret, but I suppose you already know that.” He paused and took a cigarette from an antique cigarette holder on the coffee table. After lighting up, he said, “You don’t mind, do you?”
Lisa and Jeff shook their heads. Jeff added, “I love smoke. Toughens the lungs.”
A sliver of a smile briefly appeared on Clarke’s lips as he glanced at Helen. “I see what you mean.” He turned back to Jeff. “As I’m sure Helen has explained, the country is running out of energy.” Clarke took a drag on his cigarette, and then said, “The greenies wasted more than twenty years trying to make the so-called renewables into major energy sources. However, sun and wind are too unreliable and inefficient to provide more than twenty percent of our energy. Combined. That leaves a big hole. If we don’t come up with an answer, the computer models predict the US will regress a full century, back to an agrarian society. The automobile will be a memory and most homes will burn coal or wood for warmth. People will fight over scraps of food. Modern medicine will be affordable only by the elite. The models say our population will drop under one hundred million by 2060.
“The only solution is nuclear power. We need to build almost two hundred nuclear power plants over the next two decades just to maintain a reasonably level supply of electricity. This is a tremendous undertaking that will stretch our resources to the limit under the best of circumstances.”
“Two hundred nuclear plants in twenty years?” Lisa said. “That’s about one plant coming online every month, Mr. President.”
“I know it sounds impossible,” the President replied. “But we are going to do it. We wasted years pissing around with wind and solar power. Now we have no other options.”
“It may not be as difficult as it seems,” Helen added. “The design work has been completed for an advanced nuclear reactor. We plan to standardize on a Generation VI design that will shrink construction time to twenty-eight months. It’s called an Integral Fast Reactor, a breeder that produces more fuel than it consumes. A standardized design will also expedite licensing and reduce capital costs.”
“Where will you get the enriched uranium to power two hundred new reactors?” Lisa asked.
Helen looked at the President. “Not just uranium, the Integral Fast Reactor also burns plutonium,” he said. “Military warheads will be recycled to produce mixed oxide fuel specially designed for the new reactors. We’ll also reprocess the waste fuel that has been stored at reactor sites for years.”
“You plan to unilaterally disarm?” Jeff said. “Then what, deter the Chinese and Russians with spitballs. Or maybe I’m just so charming they won’t attack?”
“We don’t think we’ll have to recycle all the warheads,” Helen said. “And once we have a sufficient number of the new breeders in operation, we’ll produce all the fuel we need, and we’ll start building warheads to replace the ones we dismantled.”
“Do you actually have one of these new reactors up and running?” Lisa asked.
“We have a prototype under construction,” Helen replied.
“A prototype! You’re betting the ranch on a prototype?” Jeff said to Helen.
“The physics is well-understood,” Helen said. “Breeders were built by several nations, including us, back in the sixties. The US built a research reactor called the EBR-II in 1964 to demonstrate breeder technology. The reactor was a complete success: it ran for thirty years. During this period, many advances were built into the reactor. It was shut down because of politics, not any real problems.”
“Okay, maybe the technology works,” Jeff said. “There’s still one little-bitty concern: where are you going to find the construction teams to build all these power plants? There are only a handful of corporations that know how to build conventional nuclear plants, let alone this new super-nifty design.”
“See,” Helen said to President Clarke, “I told you he’d zoom in on our weakest point.” She focused on Jeff. “That’s our critical path, Jeff. We are pulling in every construction firm that builds power plants, whether they are focused on natural gas, coal, whatever, and seeding them with engineers from the nuclear industry. We’ll train them in nuclear power and monitor their work tightly until they’re up to speed. Remember, they only have to learn how to construct one type of plant, so they shouldn’t have any major problems.”
“And you want us to provide security for what … as many as a hundred simultaneous construction projects?” Lisa said.
Clarke smiled wistfully. “Not only that. You would also be responsible for security for all the new plants as they go into operation. Listen, I don’t expect you to staff all this work with your own people. We’ll get you anything you need: military, other security firms, subcontractors, whatever it takes. This is essentially the Second Manhattan Project, and you would be responsible for a big chunk of it.”
“We appreciate your confidence in us, Mr. President,” Lisa said, “but why turn security over to a private firm, one with no experience in the nuclear industry?
Clarke glanced at Helen and said, “Because there’s a leak somewhere within the federal government. There are fanatics who don’t want this project to succeed. The lunatic fringe of the environmental movement has coalesced around a leader named Gaia, who has provided the organization and planning lacking in the past. This Gaia has already stolen top secret information and murdered half a dozen people with critical roles in the project. In fact, Helen was almost killed last week. That convinced me that we need someone completely outside both the government and the nuclear industry to head up security. An organization not already penetrated by the fanatics.” He took a drag of his cigarette and said to Jeff, “Helen recommended you.”
“It will be a long and controversial project, Mr. President,” Jeff said. “Will you back us all the way?”
Clarke studied Jeff. “You’ll have my support every step.” He chuckled. “That is, unless you screw up.”
“We’ll need to see your project plans before we make a decision,” Lisa jumped in. “Just the high level documents so we can get a reading ---.”
“We’ll take the job,” Jeff interrupted.
The room was quiet for a moment, and then Clarke said, “I don’t want you to think you’re forced to take this project. I believe in making hard decisions, but it would be okay if you want to take a couple of days to get a better understanding of what we’re asking.”
“No need, we’re on board.”
“I’m surprised you made up your mind so quickly. You’re quite the patriot.”
“Patriot, schmatriot.” Jeff smiled at the President. “If we lose power, how am I going to take my morning shower? You think I’m taking a dip in the Potomac?”
Lisa buried her head in her arms while Helen and Clarke stared at Jeff.
“God help us,” the President said, “the deal is done”.
April 12, 2011
Unholy Domain Giveaway
Win a free copy of UNHOLY DOMAIN, my popular near-future thriller. LibraryThing is offering 25 free ebooks through their Member Giveaway program. Contest ends May 1.
Win a copy of UNHOLY DOMAIN and enjoy a great read.
Win a copy of UNHOLY DOMAIN and enjoy a great read.
February 24, 2011
Meet a Real Artificial Intelligence
Welcome to the future!
Watson, a highly intelligent IBM computer, and two Jeopardy champions, Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter, concluded their final round of Jeopardy! with artificial intelligence the winner. And that means humanity is the real winner. Watson’s ability to process and analyze unstructured data and interpret natural language is a great step forward toward a future that science fiction writers like myself have dreamed about for decades. If we can teach a computer to compete on Jeopardy!, then what will be achieved in the coming years? Move over Star Trek.
For those who haven’t heard the news, IBM's supercomputer Watson defeated two of Jeopardy‘s champions, and it wasn’t even close. Watson, named after IBM’s founder, is based upon DeepQA, software that powers hundreds of simultaneous algorithmic calculations, which enables the machine to parse human speech patterns, check them against its vast database of knowledge, and provide a most likely answer and a confidence level for that answer. To run all those algorithms, Watson includes a hardware platform of 90 32-core IBM Power 750 Express servers and 16 terabytes of memory.
For I.B.M., the showdown was not merely a well-publicized stunt and a $1 million prize, but proof that the company has taken a big step toward a world in which intelligent machines will understand and respond to humans, and perhaps inevitably, replace some of them.
Watson, specifically, is a “question answering machine” of a type that artificial intelligence researchers have struggled with for decades — a computer akin to the one in my novel PeaceMaker that can understand questions posed in natural language and answer them. Luckily, unlike PeaceMaker,Watson doen't have a thirst for power. At least not yet.
Watson showed itself to be imperfect, but researchers at I.B.M. and other companies are already developing uses for Watson’s technologies that could have a significant impact on the way corporations build products, doctors practice medicine and consumers buy goods. Watson is a big step forward into a future that may be startling.
.
Watson, a highly intelligent IBM computer, and two Jeopardy champions, Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter, concluded their final round of Jeopardy! with artificial intelligence the winner. And that means humanity is the real winner. Watson’s ability to process and analyze unstructured data and interpret natural language is a great step forward toward a future that science fiction writers like myself have dreamed about for decades. If we can teach a computer to compete on Jeopardy!, then what will be achieved in the coming years? Move over Star Trek.
For those who haven’t heard the news, IBM's supercomputer Watson defeated two of Jeopardy‘s champions, and it wasn’t even close. Watson, named after IBM’s founder, is based upon DeepQA, software that powers hundreds of simultaneous algorithmic calculations, which enables the machine to parse human speech patterns, check them against its vast database of knowledge, and provide a most likely answer and a confidence level for that answer. To run all those algorithms, Watson includes a hardware platform of 90 32-core IBM Power 750 Express servers and 16 terabytes of memory.
For I.B.M., the showdown was not merely a well-publicized stunt and a $1 million prize, but proof that the company has taken a big step toward a world in which intelligent machines will understand and respond to humans, and perhaps inevitably, replace some of them.
Watson, specifically, is a “question answering machine” of a type that artificial intelligence researchers have struggled with for decades — a computer akin to the one in my novel PeaceMaker that can understand questions posed in natural language and answer them. Luckily, unlike PeaceMaker,Watson doen't have a thirst for power. At least not yet.
Watson showed itself to be imperfect, but researchers at I.B.M. and other companies are already developing uses for Watson’s technologies that could have a significant impact on the way corporations build products, doctors practice medicine and consumers buy goods. Watson is a big step forward into a future that may be startling.
.
December 24, 2010
Engineers or Lawyers?
What Do We Need? Engineers or Lawyers?
I was browsing through a number of online magazines, and I came across an article that was all too familiar: the shortage of engineering talent in the USA. I have read similar stories for many years, but nothing seems to improve.
Here’s the situation, briefly and maybe too simply. Engineers --- chemical, electrical, nuclear, and all the rest --- are the people who take basic science and turn it into products or services required by our society. We need engineers, lots of them. As our world grows more complex, as the human population continues to increase, we need people who can design products and find solutions that improve our standard of living. Without a body of talented engineers, America and every other country will suffer with a declining standard of living.
There are plenty of engineering jobs out there, more so than most other professions. But who will fill those jobs? According to Industry Week, US graduation rates for engineering students declined by 23% between 1985 and 2000. So what’s going on here?
You may not know it, but my first career was in engineering, followed by years in the information technology business, and then my current passion as a novelist. I graduated Columbia University with a shiny new master’s degree in nuclear engineering and went to work designing nuclear reactors for a giant corporation (which shall remain nameless) with a bunch of very bright young men and women. Should have been a great job, but it didn’t work out.
First of all, there was a lack of respect for the engineers. Senior management believed in the mushroom theory – keep everyone in the dark and drop fertilizer on them periodically. Not good for morale.
One day, a few months into the job, a senior engineer took me aside and explained the facts of working life to me. A woman, one of the few female engineers in those days. She explained that the young engineers were hired in with a fairly high salary, and would receive a good raise for the first year or two, but the money would dry up to at best a cost of living increase after four or five years. If I wanted a better salary, move from engineering to management.
Great but sobering advice for a young engineer. Lack of respect and lack of compensation. I loved computer programming, so I decided to move into IT, which was the right decision for me.
Americans continue to hold engineering in fairly low regard among a range of occupations. Harris polls show just a third of respondents consider engineering a prestigious occupation, a figure that has changed little or for the worse since 1977.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
So how does industry maintain an adequate supply of engineers? We import them, mostly from Europe, India and Asia. And they are excellent engineers, so industry comes out all right. But things are changing. An Asian engineer does not have to come to the USA to find work anymore; there’s plenty of work in their native lands.
I should finish this article with a call for more respect and better compensation for today’s young engineering graduates. Okay, I will. But it doesn’t matter. If a bright young person can make much more as a lawyer, it will be impossible to lure a sufficient number of Americans into engineering. And if we can’t import big numbers of foreign engineers, well, we’re in deep you know what.
I was browsing through a number of online magazines, and I came across an article that was all too familiar: the shortage of engineering talent in the USA. I have read similar stories for many years, but nothing seems to improve.
Here’s the situation, briefly and maybe too simply. Engineers --- chemical, electrical, nuclear, and all the rest --- are the people who take basic science and turn it into products or services required by our society. We need engineers, lots of them. As our world grows more complex, as the human population continues to increase, we need people who can design products and find solutions that improve our standard of living. Without a body of talented engineers, America and every other country will suffer with a declining standard of living.
There are plenty of engineering jobs out there, more so than most other professions. But who will fill those jobs? According to Industry Week, US graduation rates for engineering students declined by 23% between 1985 and 2000. So what’s going on here?
You may not know it, but my first career was in engineering, followed by years in the information technology business, and then my current passion as a novelist. I graduated Columbia University with a shiny new master’s degree in nuclear engineering and went to work designing nuclear reactors for a giant corporation (which shall remain nameless) with a bunch of very bright young men and women. Should have been a great job, but it didn’t work out.
First of all, there was a lack of respect for the engineers. Senior management believed in the mushroom theory – keep everyone in the dark and drop fertilizer on them periodically. Not good for morale.
One day, a few months into the job, a senior engineer took me aside and explained the facts of working life to me. A woman, one of the few female engineers in those days. She explained that the young engineers were hired in with a fairly high salary, and would receive a good raise for the first year or two, but the money would dry up to at best a cost of living increase after four or five years. If I wanted a better salary, move from engineering to management.
Great but sobering advice for a young engineer. Lack of respect and lack of compensation. I loved computer programming, so I decided to move into IT, which was the right decision for me.
Americans continue to hold engineering in fairly low regard among a range of occupations. Harris polls show just a third of respondents consider engineering a prestigious occupation, a figure that has changed little or for the worse since 1977.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
So how does industry maintain an adequate supply of engineers? We import them, mostly from Europe, India and Asia. And they are excellent engineers, so industry comes out all right. But things are changing. An Asian engineer does not have to come to the USA to find work anymore; there’s plenty of work in their native lands.
I should finish this article with a call for more respect and better compensation for today’s young engineering graduates. Okay, I will. But it doesn’t matter. If a bright young person can make much more as a lawyer, it will be impossible to lure a sufficient number of Americans into engineering. And if we can’t import big numbers of foreign engineers, well, we’re in deep you know what.
December 11, 2010
Do you want a century-long lifespan?
Immortality, it just doesn’t seem right. But would I want additional decades? Absolutely, as long as the quality of life was there.
Start thinking about these issues, especially you folks under thirty. You will have decisions to face for yourself and your children.
Scientists are working hard to increase the human life span. And they are making progress in a number of fields. I’m not writing a research paper, but here are a few snippets of exciting advances.
People in most western nations are living much longer than their ancestors. A century earlier, the average lifespan in the US was about forty years. Now it’s in the late seventies. The keys have been more and better food, a more nurturing society, and vastly better health care. But this is just the beginning.
Hormone therapy shows promise. Scientists have successfully slowed down the aging process in laboratory animals with a hormone known as DHEA. Insects treated with DHEA live up to 45% longer than normal. Mice treated with Melatonin live as much as 25% longer than typical mice.
Genetic engineering may also lengthen the human lifespan. By manipulating genes, the lifespan of some roundworms has been increased by a factor of six.
Biologists know that the telomere, part of the chromosome, is shortened each time the cell reproduces. When about 20% of the telomere is lost, the cell dies. However, with an appropriate enzyme treatment, the telomere can be regenerated. This opens up the possibility that the cell may be able to grow and divide for a much longer period than is presently the case.
All this is encouraging, but I have to admit as yet there is no hard evidence that advanced science can increase the human lifespan to the 100 year mark. But many fields show promise, and I believe that a normal lifespan exceeding a century is ossible for people born in the US two or three decades from now.
Okay, let’s get back to the question: Do you want to live much, much longer? Maybe not immortality, but a very long lifespan. Surprisingly, most people aren’t convinced. Immortality seems to go against the natural order of things. Who wants a world overstuffed with old geezers using up all the resources? Just look at Social Security and Medicare in this country. How are we going to support all the aging baby boomers? Something has to give. Will taxes go through the roof on young workers? Will they become virtual slaves, supporting older generations?
It seems to me most senior citizens will have to continue working far beyond the normal retirement age of 65. So what happens to all the young people entering the workforce? Will they have to linger in lower level positions until the seniors retire?
Sometimes I think I’m awfully glad to be living my life in the present age. But I would love to see the future unfold, if I have my health. Even with all the issues, it’s going to be an exciting time to be alive.
Start thinking about these issues, especially you folks under thirty. You will have decisions to face for yourself and your children.
Scientists are working hard to increase the human life span. And they are making progress in a number of fields. I’m not writing a research paper, but here are a few snippets of exciting advances.
People in most western nations are living much longer than their ancestors. A century earlier, the average lifespan in the US was about forty years. Now it’s in the late seventies. The keys have been more and better food, a more nurturing society, and vastly better health care. But this is just the beginning.
Hormone therapy shows promise. Scientists have successfully slowed down the aging process in laboratory animals with a hormone known as DHEA. Insects treated with DHEA live up to 45% longer than normal. Mice treated with Melatonin live as much as 25% longer than typical mice.
Genetic engineering may also lengthen the human lifespan. By manipulating genes, the lifespan of some roundworms has been increased by a factor of six.
Biologists know that the telomere, part of the chromosome, is shortened each time the cell reproduces. When about 20% of the telomere is lost, the cell dies. However, with an appropriate enzyme treatment, the telomere can be regenerated. This opens up the possibility that the cell may be able to grow and divide for a much longer period than is presently the case.
All this is encouraging, but I have to admit as yet there is no hard evidence that advanced science can increase the human lifespan to the 100 year mark. But many fields show promise, and I believe that a normal lifespan exceeding a century is ossible for people born in the US two or three decades from now.
Okay, let’s get back to the question: Do you want to live much, much longer? Maybe not immortality, but a very long lifespan. Surprisingly, most people aren’t convinced. Immortality seems to go against the natural order of things. Who wants a world overstuffed with old geezers using up all the resources? Just look at Social Security and Medicare in this country. How are we going to support all the aging baby boomers? Something has to give. Will taxes go through the roof on young workers? Will they become virtual slaves, supporting older generations?
It seems to me most senior citizens will have to continue working far beyond the normal retirement age of 65. So what happens to all the young people entering the workforce? Will they have to linger in lower level positions until the seniors retire?
Sometimes I think I’m awfully glad to be living my life in the present age. But I would love to see the future unfold, if I have my health. Even with all the issues, it’s going to be an exciting time to be alive.
November 23, 2010
Faster Than A Speeding Bullet
Is our destiny to create a new, greatly enhanced species of humanity?
As the greatest of all the superheroes, Superman possesses extraordinary powers represented as “faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive, and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound”, a description made famous in the Superman TV series of the 1950s. Superman’s capabilities include flight, super-strength, invulnerable skin, super-speed, x-ray vision, super-hearing, and the ability to blow with the power of gale-force winds. Besides that, he was pretty much invulnerable to disease and smart as a whip. This is one tough dude.
These certainly are abilities “far beyond those of mortal men” as the old TV series proclaimed, but is technology pushing us in this direction? Is our destiny to create a new, greatly enhanced version of humanity? In other words, a new species of superhumans?
I believe that’s exactly where we are heading. As we continue to advance the big four technologies — genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics and nanotechnology — we will create a new version of humanity that will have as little in common with us as we have with Cro-Magnon man. The next three to five decades will place humanity firmly on the path to this new reality.
I don’t mean to sound gloomy, because the destination will be pretty damn good for the most part. It’s the transition that concerns me; technological evolution will proceed so rapidly that many will fall by the wayside. Underdeveloped countries may fall far behind, lost forever. Even in technology-rich North America, pockets of people may lose their way. Don’t let it happen to you.
Genetics
DNA can be considered the program code guiding the development of our bodies. Each of us caries DNA in our cells, and this DNA provides the instructions that lead to the growth and formation of our minds and bodies. As we begin to understand this code, as well as the other mechanisms of our bodies, we have an increasing capability to intervene. By manipulating DNA, by adjusting processes, we will be able to prevent or cure disease, enhance intelligence, strength, speed and other factors and increase the human lifespan. Are there any limits? Probably, but we are just getting started.
Artificial Intelligence
In comparison to other animals, our bodies are weak, we don’t have lethal teeth or claws, we’re not that big, we don’t reproduce quickly or in large numbers, we can’t fly or even run very fast … well, you get the idea. So why are we such a successful species? You know the answer, of course — our magnificent brain. Intelligence wins out. At least it has so far.
It’s clear that increasing our intelligence improves our survival prospects. We have learned that the computer, combined with the right software, can display a certain degree of intelligence, which we can harness for our own purposes. In certain limited areas — such as playing chess — artificial intelligence can defeat the best humans. Although humans are far ahead of the machines in broad based intelligence, the differential is shrinking. Some experts predict artificial intelligence will catch and then surpass us in as little as three or four decades. I’m not sure about the timeframe, but I am sure that we will enhance the capabilities of our brains with artificial intelligence. Wireless connections to networked AI will provide these fortunate individuals far greater intelligence than unconnected humans. Over the coming decades, we will begin to rely more on artificial intelligence than our native brainpower, even for individuals with minds genetically enhanced. The combination of genetic enhancements and networked AI will push us up the evolutionary scale.
Robotics
If artificial intelligence will gradually surpass our natural intelligence, what about our bodies? Sure, they will be genetically enhanced, but it’s not going to stop there. Robotics will play a big role, but not the kind of mechanical man we have become familiar with through the movies. No, the type of robotics I anticipate are the artificial components built into our bodies. We are already familiar with artificial hips and knees, prosthetic leg extensions and replacements, hearing aids and glasses. Why not a second mechanical heart for a backup or to supply extra blood when the workload is extreme? Why not super strong but lightweight supports built into your arms and legs, all run by your artificial intelligence? Get the picture? Like our brains, our bodies will gradually give way to mechanical devices superior to our original body parts.
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is the process of building with molecules, even atoms, which will allow us to precisely design and fabricate virtually any body part. This could be a tiny object that would fit into a human cell or something as large as a bone or organ. At some point, we may be able to build tiny medical bots in the cells, which could monitor the performance of biological parts. Or we could build more efficient blood cells, perhaps self-powered so that a heart is no longer required. In any case, nanotechnology will enable us to fabricate replacements that may be superior to the original items.
The Bottom Line
Some people would ban most, if not all, of the technological developments that we have outlined. This may be due to religious or moral beliefs that we shouldn’t tamper with God’s design. Or they may be concerned that these technologies could get into the wrong hands, such as terrorists or rogue states. Even with the best of safeguards, serious problems that may endanger human health, or even survival, might appear many years after implementation. In any case, the development of a superman could lead to conflict between the haves and have-nots in our society.
These are serious considerations, but there is no turning back; the genie is out of the bottle. Superman is coming and he’s moving with super speed. Our best hope is to combine government regulation with built-in scientific self-monitoring. If the advanced nations can agree on a course of action, Superman may be the best thing that’s ever happened to us. But if things get out of control …
As the greatest of all the superheroes, Superman possesses extraordinary powers represented as “faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive, and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound”, a description made famous in the Superman TV series of the 1950s. Superman’s capabilities include flight, super-strength, invulnerable skin, super-speed, x-ray vision, super-hearing, and the ability to blow with the power of gale-force winds. Besides that, he was pretty much invulnerable to disease and smart as a whip. This is one tough dude.
These certainly are abilities “far beyond those of mortal men” as the old TV series proclaimed, but is technology pushing us in this direction? Is our destiny to create a new, greatly enhanced version of humanity? In other words, a new species of superhumans?
I believe that’s exactly where we are heading. As we continue to advance the big four technologies — genetics, artificial intelligence, robotics and nanotechnology — we will create a new version of humanity that will have as little in common with us as we have with Cro-Magnon man. The next three to five decades will place humanity firmly on the path to this new reality.
I don’t mean to sound gloomy, because the destination will be pretty damn good for the most part. It’s the transition that concerns me; technological evolution will proceed so rapidly that many will fall by the wayside. Underdeveloped countries may fall far behind, lost forever. Even in technology-rich North America, pockets of people may lose their way. Don’t let it happen to you.
Genetics
DNA can be considered the program code guiding the development of our bodies. Each of us caries DNA in our cells, and this DNA provides the instructions that lead to the growth and formation of our minds and bodies. As we begin to understand this code, as well as the other mechanisms of our bodies, we have an increasing capability to intervene. By manipulating DNA, by adjusting processes, we will be able to prevent or cure disease, enhance intelligence, strength, speed and other factors and increase the human lifespan. Are there any limits? Probably, but we are just getting started.
Artificial Intelligence
In comparison to other animals, our bodies are weak, we don’t have lethal teeth or claws, we’re not that big, we don’t reproduce quickly or in large numbers, we can’t fly or even run very fast … well, you get the idea. So why are we such a successful species? You know the answer, of course — our magnificent brain. Intelligence wins out. At least it has so far.
It’s clear that increasing our intelligence improves our survival prospects. We have learned that the computer, combined with the right software, can display a certain degree of intelligence, which we can harness for our own purposes. In certain limited areas — such as playing chess — artificial intelligence can defeat the best humans. Although humans are far ahead of the machines in broad based intelligence, the differential is shrinking. Some experts predict artificial intelligence will catch and then surpass us in as little as three or four decades. I’m not sure about the timeframe, but I am sure that we will enhance the capabilities of our brains with artificial intelligence. Wireless connections to networked AI will provide these fortunate individuals far greater intelligence than unconnected humans. Over the coming decades, we will begin to rely more on artificial intelligence than our native brainpower, even for individuals with minds genetically enhanced. The combination of genetic enhancements and networked AI will push us up the evolutionary scale.
Robotics
If artificial intelligence will gradually surpass our natural intelligence, what about our bodies? Sure, they will be genetically enhanced, but it’s not going to stop there. Robotics will play a big role, but not the kind of mechanical man we have become familiar with through the movies. No, the type of robotics I anticipate are the artificial components built into our bodies. We are already familiar with artificial hips and knees, prosthetic leg extensions and replacements, hearing aids and glasses. Why not a second mechanical heart for a backup or to supply extra blood when the workload is extreme? Why not super strong but lightweight supports built into your arms and legs, all run by your artificial intelligence? Get the picture? Like our brains, our bodies will gradually give way to mechanical devices superior to our original body parts.
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is the process of building with molecules, even atoms, which will allow us to precisely design and fabricate virtually any body part. This could be a tiny object that would fit into a human cell or something as large as a bone or organ. At some point, we may be able to build tiny medical bots in the cells, which could monitor the performance of biological parts. Or we could build more efficient blood cells, perhaps self-powered so that a heart is no longer required. In any case, nanotechnology will enable us to fabricate replacements that may be superior to the original items.
The Bottom Line
Some people would ban most, if not all, of the technological developments that we have outlined. This may be due to religious or moral beliefs that we shouldn’t tamper with God’s design. Or they may be concerned that these technologies could get into the wrong hands, such as terrorists or rogue states. Even with the best of safeguards, serious problems that may endanger human health, or even survival, might appear many years after implementation. In any case, the development of a superman could lead to conflict between the haves and have-nots in our society.
These are serious considerations, but there is no turning back; the genie is out of the bottle. Superman is coming and he’s moving with super speed. Our best hope is to combine government regulation with built-in scientific self-monitoring. If the advanced nations can agree on a course of action, Superman may be the best thing that’s ever happened to us. But if things get out of control …
November 12, 2010
Women are Becoming Just Like Guys
Are women becoming too masculine. Where will it end?
My novels are set slightly into the future: PeaceMaker in 2012, Unholy Domain in 2022, and 2031: The Singularity Pogrom in, well, 2031. In the initial planning for these novels, I researched trends in technology and Western culture, with the objective to make the settings realistic. I tested this research against a lifetime of observation, and solicited feedback from reviewers and writers. What I discovered led me to create a balance of power between the sexes in the near future. It became clear, at least to me, that the two genders were moving toward each other in world view, attitude and actions. Women were becoming more like men and men more like women (but that’s a subject for another time). I don’t claim this is a conclusion based upon rigorous scientific procedures, but however informal, it makes sense to me.
When men think about women, we always focus first on appearance, so let’s start there. Is she pretty? Not too heavy, but with plenty of curves? Soft, pure face of an angel? Those are the questions we asked thirty years ago, and we still ask them today, but the women have changed.
Today’s females are bigger and more athletic than previous generations. Go to any workout facility and what do you see? Plenty of women. And not just doing aerobics, either. Pumping iron, pushups, building their strength against all manner of exercise machines. They’re dropping baby fat and showing off lean, hard muscles. Not that they are becoming bodybuilders (although some do), but they are not the women of your mother’s generation either.
Drive around town and you’ll certainly come across a jogger. What’s the gender most of the time? And she’s probably setting a fast pace, too.
Muscles are no longer solely a masculine domain. Check out the ladies playing basketball or tennis, let alone the boxers. Not a wimp in the bunch. Female voleyball players range up to six feet six, and that's just their legs. Title IX has opened the door for women to excel at sports, and they are succeeding. You want to see Serena Williams getting ready to serve a cannonball at you? I don’t. That doesn’t mean today’s women aren’t as beautiful or sexy as previous generations. I think they look better, actually, with their lean, athletic figures.
Okay, they look different, but what about their attitudes? The way they lead their lives?
Back in the fifties, college was primarily a man’s domain. Now the majority of underclasspeople (did I get that right?) are women. Women mature more rapidly than men and do better in their studies. They graduate at a higher rate and move into the professions. Some would say they’ve swarmed into the professions, shouldering men out the door as they push in. A guy risks getting trampled if he holds a door open.
Women start most of the small businesses in North America. Bet you didn’t know that. A few decades ago, if you called your doctor, your lawyer or your accountant, a masculine voice came over the line. Not any longer. It’s more likely the voice will be pitched higher and smoother.
My profession has gone the same way. Most readers and writers seem to be women, at least from what I can see. Pick up a novel at random and the author’s name usually begins with Karin or Nancy or … you get the picture. There are still a lot of us guys turning out thrillers and science fiction, but that’s changing, too.
Remember how, a couple of generations ago, women would spend much of their time searching for a man to marry? When all they wanted was a home, a child and a good husband to take care of them? Well, today’s gals are in no rush to get married. They have options. They think the way guys think. Date, have fun, get some action but don’t rush into marriage. Get the career started, then, maybe, think about family. And keep working. It’s a significant break with the past.
Why have women done so well? Attitude and opportunity. Fifty years ago women were locked out of many of the opportunities men enjoyed, but that’s changed now. With a few exceptions, such as really dangerous or heavy physical work, women can do anything a man can do. And women have just as much determination, courage and brains as men. Combine that with sexuality and they can get where they want to go, maybe with more options than men. Actually, as I think about it, we men are outgunned.
You know, as I look this stuff over, it seems to be generally positive. Yeah, the women are becoming more like men, but that’s better for them and for the guys, too. But there’s a negative side.
When a woman starts a business, she has to work like crazy to make it successful. If she’s a single Mom, what happens to her children? Daycare is usually okay, but it’s not the same as having a full-time mother. If she’s married, the man will pick up some of the slack, right? He’ll try, but remember, he’s got his career, too. And there aren’t many stay-at-home Dads. We discovered that society doesn’t respect a guy who relies upon his wife to be the bread winner.
There are more women in prison than ever before. Just like men, some aggressive, the rules-don’t-apply-to-me women take what they want. White collar crime, violence, sexual predators, the whole nine yards. And what’s going on with these female teachers who seduce their high school, even grammar school, students? This rarely happened back in my day.
Damn!
Too many women are waiting too long to get married. They’re going out to the bars, drinking, flirting, having sex with any guy that appeals to them. Wait, this was supposed to be a negative. Sorry about that.
Anyway, I think you get the idea. Women are becoming more masculine in Western society, and it seems to be working out, but there have been bumps in the road. And a few potholes. Quite a few.
And so, as I outlined my novels, I decided that the female characters would not be crammed into the stereotypes found in many stories. Take Dianne Morgan, the most dominant character to emerge from my novels. She’s the real mover and shaker, the person driving the action across all three books. Dianne is the CEO of a giant software company, a single mother and a self-made billionaire. Sexy, sometimes tender and very determined. On the other hand, she’s violent, erratic, and trusts no one. Fits the description of a masculine villain, doesn’t she (except for the single mother part)?
Dianne is an example — maybe a bit extreme — of today’s alpha woman. With three male partners, she grows a business from startup to giant corporation. She uses all the weapons nature provided to become CEO of the world’s largest software maker. Ray Brown is her key acquisition, a brilliant software engineer who has developed an intelligent operating system that understands the spoken language. Just like the computer in Star Trek. She knows all other software will be made obsolete, so she recruits Ray, then seduces him. He’s married, but business is business. Ray becomes an alcoholic, loses his family, winds up in rehab, but what the hell, Dianne has the software. She actually cares for him, but first things first.
Okay, ladies, I admit it, I’m trying to get a rise out of you. I’ve enjoyed thinking about women becoming more like men, and I’d like to hear what you think. Make a comment if you have the ... spherical components of the masculine anatomy.
My novels are set slightly into the future: PeaceMaker in 2012, Unholy Domain in 2022, and 2031: The Singularity Pogrom in, well, 2031. In the initial planning for these novels, I researched trends in technology and Western culture, with the objective to make the settings realistic. I tested this research against a lifetime of observation, and solicited feedback from reviewers and writers. What I discovered led me to create a balance of power between the sexes in the near future. It became clear, at least to me, that the two genders were moving toward each other in world view, attitude and actions. Women were becoming more like men and men more like women (but that’s a subject for another time). I don’t claim this is a conclusion based upon rigorous scientific procedures, but however informal, it makes sense to me.
When men think about women, we always focus first on appearance, so let’s start there. Is she pretty? Not too heavy, but with plenty of curves? Soft, pure face of an angel? Those are the questions we asked thirty years ago, and we still ask them today, but the women have changed.
Today’s females are bigger and more athletic than previous generations. Go to any workout facility and what do you see? Plenty of women. And not just doing aerobics, either. Pumping iron, pushups, building their strength against all manner of exercise machines. They’re dropping baby fat and showing off lean, hard muscles. Not that they are becoming bodybuilders (although some do), but they are not the women of your mother’s generation either.
Drive around town and you’ll certainly come across a jogger. What’s the gender most of the time? And she’s probably setting a fast pace, too.
Muscles are no longer solely a masculine domain. Check out the ladies playing basketball or tennis, let alone the boxers. Not a wimp in the bunch. Female voleyball players range up to six feet six, and that's just their legs. Title IX has opened the door for women to excel at sports, and they are succeeding. You want to see Serena Williams getting ready to serve a cannonball at you? I don’t. That doesn’t mean today’s women aren’t as beautiful or sexy as previous generations. I think they look better, actually, with their lean, athletic figures.
Okay, they look different, but what about their attitudes? The way they lead their lives?
Back in the fifties, college was primarily a man’s domain. Now the majority of underclasspeople (did I get that right?) are women. Women mature more rapidly than men and do better in their studies. They graduate at a higher rate and move into the professions. Some would say they’ve swarmed into the professions, shouldering men out the door as they push in. A guy risks getting trampled if he holds a door open.
Women start most of the small businesses in North America. Bet you didn’t know that. A few decades ago, if you called your doctor, your lawyer or your accountant, a masculine voice came over the line. Not any longer. It’s more likely the voice will be pitched higher and smoother.
My profession has gone the same way. Most readers and writers seem to be women, at least from what I can see. Pick up a novel at random and the author’s name usually begins with Karin or Nancy or … you get the picture. There are still a lot of us guys turning out thrillers and science fiction, but that’s changing, too.
Remember how, a couple of generations ago, women would spend much of their time searching for a man to marry? When all they wanted was a home, a child and a good husband to take care of them? Well, today’s gals are in no rush to get married. They have options. They think the way guys think. Date, have fun, get some action but don’t rush into marriage. Get the career started, then, maybe, think about family. And keep working. It’s a significant break with the past.
Why have women done so well? Attitude and opportunity. Fifty years ago women were locked out of many of the opportunities men enjoyed, but that’s changed now. With a few exceptions, such as really dangerous or heavy physical work, women can do anything a man can do. And women have just as much determination, courage and brains as men. Combine that with sexuality and they can get where they want to go, maybe with more options than men. Actually, as I think about it, we men are outgunned.
You know, as I look this stuff over, it seems to be generally positive. Yeah, the women are becoming more like men, but that’s better for them and for the guys, too. But there’s a negative side.
When a woman starts a business, she has to work like crazy to make it successful. If she’s a single Mom, what happens to her children? Daycare is usually okay, but it’s not the same as having a full-time mother. If she’s married, the man will pick up some of the slack, right? He’ll try, but remember, he’s got his career, too. And there aren’t many stay-at-home Dads. We discovered that society doesn’t respect a guy who relies upon his wife to be the bread winner.
There are more women in prison than ever before. Just like men, some aggressive, the rules-don’t-apply-to-me women take what they want. White collar crime, violence, sexual predators, the whole nine yards. And what’s going on with these female teachers who seduce their high school, even grammar school, students? This rarely happened back in my day.
Damn!
Too many women are waiting too long to get married. They’re going out to the bars, drinking, flirting, having sex with any guy that appeals to them. Wait, this was supposed to be a negative. Sorry about that.
Anyway, I think you get the idea. Women are becoming more masculine in Western society, and it seems to be working out, but there have been bumps in the road. And a few potholes. Quite a few.
And so, as I outlined my novels, I decided that the female characters would not be crammed into the stereotypes found in many stories. Take Dianne Morgan, the most dominant character to emerge from my novels. She’s the real mover and shaker, the person driving the action across all three books. Dianne is the CEO of a giant software company, a single mother and a self-made billionaire. Sexy, sometimes tender and very determined. On the other hand, she’s violent, erratic, and trusts no one. Fits the description of a masculine villain, doesn’t she (except for the single mother part)?
Dianne is an example — maybe a bit extreme — of today’s alpha woman. With three male partners, she grows a business from startup to giant corporation. She uses all the weapons nature provided to become CEO of the world’s largest software maker. Ray Brown is her key acquisition, a brilliant software engineer who has developed an intelligent operating system that understands the spoken language. Just like the computer in Star Trek. She knows all other software will be made obsolete, so she recruits Ray, then seduces him. He’s married, but business is business. Ray becomes an alcoholic, loses his family, winds up in rehab, but what the hell, Dianne has the software. She actually cares for him, but first things first.
Okay, ladies, I admit it, I’m trying to get a rise out of you. I’ve enjoyed thinking about women becoming more like men, and I’d like to hear what you think. Make a comment if you have the ... spherical components of the masculine anatomy.
November 7, 2010
Free Novels
Between now and December 7th, my novels (PeaceMaker, Unholy Domain and 2031: The Singularity Pogrom) are available in PDF or Word format FREE. In conjunction with All Things That Matter Press, I will email you a free digital copy of one of these novels. All you have to do is select the one you want. Send an email to danron@ptd.net right now with your choice, and I will send you the document immediately.
The novel is for your reading enjoyment; please do not sell it to anyone. Feel free to tell your friends to email me with their selection.
Happy reading!
The novel is for your reading enjoyment; please do not sell it to anyone. Feel free to tell your friends to email me with their selection.
Happy reading!
