Puneet Mathur's Blog - Posts Tagged "crystal-gazing"

Prediction, as defined by Wikipedia, is a statement about an uncertain event it is often but not always, based on experience or knowledge. So prediction always involves an uncertain event in the future. It also requires experience or knowledge. So the key elements which define prediction and forecast involve experiential knowledge about what is going to happen. There are people who say what is going to happen is not known but prediction involves knowing this unknown which is going to happen at a distant point in time. I make another distinction which normally other authors do not make about prediction is that it involves predicting outliers. Traditional Predictive Analytics techniques use statistical methods and are based on the notion that "Past will follow through the future". This means if we see a trend in the past this assumption warrants that this will definitely happen in the future. Ask yourself this question how many events which happen in our lives in our states in our regions and in our countries have happened in the past have also happened in the future. How many 9/11 type of events have happened in the past?, how many Lehman Brothers type of financial debacles happened in the past? How many World wars of the same type happened in the past? The answer to all the above questions is None. These events as per Predictive Analytics are known as Outliers and Random events part of the Standard Error which cannot be predicted. I found in my researches the secret formulae which helps us unearth the models which can predict event Outliers. You can read all about it in my new Book Predictology. Where I have used both Data Science and Astrology to build a model for predicting US Presidential elections 2016. More on this in my next blog posts. Bye for now. Do remember to post comments below and ask any questions that may occur to you.