Steve Bull's Blog, page 66
March 18, 2024
Will BRICS launch a new world in 2024?
BRICS doubled its membership at the start of 2024, and faces huge tasks ahead: integrating its newest members, developing future admission criteria, deepening the institution’s groundings, and most importantly, launching the mechanisms for bypassing the US dollar in international finance.
(Photo Credit: The Cradle)MOSCOW – Across the Global South, countries are lining up to join the multipolar BRICS and the Hegemon-free future it promises. The onslaught of interest has become an unavoidable theme of discussion during this crucial year of the Russian presidency of what, for the moment, is BRICS-10.
Indonesia and Nigeria are among the top tiers of candidates likely to join. The same applies to Pakistan and Vietnam. Mexico is in a very complex bind: how to join without summoning the ire of the Hegemon.
And then there’s the new candidacy on a roll: Yemen, which enjoys plenty of support from Russia, China, and Iran.
It’s been up to Russia’s top BRICS sherpa, the immensely capable Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, to clarify what’s ahead. He tells TASS:
We must provide a platform for the countries interested in rapprochement with the BRICS, where they will be able to work practically without feeling left behind and joining this cooperation rhythm. And as to how the further expansion will be decided upon – this should be postponed at least until the leaders convene in Kazan to decide.
The key decision on BRICS+ expansion will only come out of the Kazan summit next October. Ryabkov stresses that the order of the day is first “to integrate those who have just joined.” This means that “as a ‘ten,’ we work at least as efficiently, or, rather, more efficiently than we did within the initial ‘five.'”
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Bye-bye Carbon
Photo by K B on UnsplashOurs is a carbon based economy. On the other hand, carbon emissions are wrecking the climate; for proof just take a look at this short tour de force from Paul Beckwith. In related news UK emissions in 2023 fell to lowest level since 1879. But why is that so? Are we on a path to a green Nirvana, or something entirely different is going on? If you suspect that it is the latter, then this one is for you.
For starters, take a look at this chart, from the Carbon Brief article linked above. Wow, the UK is back to 1879 levels of emissions, when steam locomotives were all the hype, and we didn’t have neither airplanes nor cars! I mean, isn’t that shocking?! This is a precipitous, relentless fall, clearly signalling an end to an era.
SourceThere is one minor snag though: this has little to nothing to do with climate policies. And while the well researched and fairly objective Carbon Brief article admits so, it fails to name the elephant in the room. Beyond the many blips and dents what you can see on this chart, dear reader, is a textbook example on how peak carbon looks like. The UK has unwillingly provided us with a Petri-dish experiment on how the depletion of a finite energy resource puts an end to an era of economic, military and geo-strategic dominance together with rising living standards.
Missing entirely from the conversation around both emissions and economic growth is the fact that this is what happens when a country is running out of cheap and easy to access carbon, like easy to mine coal, or oil and gas gushing out from a well. Take a glance at the chart above once again…
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March 16, 2024
EIA Confirms U.S. Producing More Oil Than Any Country in History
In mid-December, I wrote here that the U.S. had set a new annual oil production record:
“The U.S. set a new annual oil production record on December 15, based on data from the Energy Information Administration. Although the official monthly numbers from the EIA won’t be released for a couple of months, we can calculate that a new record has been set based on the following analysis.”
I could project that new record based on the weekly production numbers from the EIA, but I noted that official confirmation wouldn’t come until sometime this year. On March 11, 2024, the EIA made it official: United States produces more crude oil than any country, ever.
The EIA analysis notes that not only did the U.S. break the previous record in 2023, but speculated that no other nation is likely to break it any time soon:
“The United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time, according to our International Energy Statistics, for the past six years in a row. Crude oil production in the United States, including condensate, averaged 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019. Average monthly U.S. crude oil production established a monthly record high in December 2023 at more than 13.3 million b/d.
The crude oil production record in the United States in 2023 is unlikely to be broken in any other country in the near term because no other country has reached production capacity of 13.0 million b/d. Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Aramco recently scrapped plans to increase production capacity to 13.0 million b/d by 2027.”
The EIA analysis noted that following nearly 40 years of annual production declines, in 2009, U.S. crude oil production experienced a resurgence, attributed to the widespread adoption of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques by producers. Since then, production has continued to climb steadily.
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Advances and challenges in understanding compound weather and climate extremes
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public DomainIn the context of global warming, many extremes, such as heat waves, heavy precipitation, and droughts, have become increasingly frequent and intense, as expected theoretically. Somewhat unexpectedly, these extremes have also exhibited tightened linkage in both time and space, constituting compound weather and climate extremes with larger impacts.
During the past decade, compound events received considerable attention, with much progress in event typology, impacts, changes and risks already made.
A study led by Prof. Zengchao Hao (College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University) and Prof. Yang Chen (State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences) explores more than a dozen recent compound events. The paper is published in the journal Science China Earth Sciences.
By synthesizing nearly 350 peer-reviewed papers, the authors thoroughly documented definitions and impacts, physical mechanisms, and historical/future changes as well as attribution evidence with respect to 13 reported and relatively well-studied compound events. Some of these events are specific to East Asian monsoonal regions.
They also pointed out deficiencies and gaps in existing studies on each of these events. At the end of the review, they attempted to identify data and methodological challenges common to the field and came up with outlooks on the future directions of the emerging topic.
More specifically, they laid out their review by order of definition, mechanisms, changes, and attribution. For each of the reviewed events, the authors adopted an impact-centric approach to introduce the definition by illustrating how the fashion of compounding aggregated and amplified impacts. Distinct from previous reviews on some types of compound events focusing largely on long-term changes, the new review assigned a large volume of space to the underlying physical processes, especially from the dynamic (including monsoon dynamics) and multi-sphere interactive perspectives.
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The Next Ten Years and the Fate of Civilization, Why We’re at a Crossroads in History, Plus, What Broken Ages End In
(Why) We’re at a Crossroads in History
It’s hard to believe, but we’re almost halfway through the 2020s. It’s the year 2024, and…how would you say things are going? For us, whether as societies, the world, a civilization, human beings?
I often say that we’re at a turning point or crossroads in human history. I think that sometimes people imagine I mean this metaphorically. But I don’t. I mean it literally. It’s almost halfway through the 2020s, and we’re at a turning point in human history, right now.
This year, the next one, the rest of this decade. They’ll determine the trajectory we’re all on, collectively, for decades to come, and perhaps longer. Think of the next year, two, five, as a hinge, that’ll determine whether history swings up—or down.
Today we’re going to talk about just how—and why—a little bit.
This year is a crucial one for democracy, if you haven’t heard already. An unusually large number of elections are taking place. But it’s hardly just that. In a very specific context, and not a sunny one. Democracy’s barely hanging on by its fingernails, at just 20% of the world fully so, and dropping like a rock. Meanwhile, these elections are also, therefore, unusually crucial. Like America’s choice in November, between Trump’s overt authoritarianism, and Biden’s nascent path towards, perhaps, modernizing a decrepit America. The EU will vote for its parliament, too, in June, and we’ll see if its rightwards drift continues. And many more.
What does all that mean, though? The central questions are: will history repeat itself? Will growing fissures of collapse become jagged cracks, fragmenting our civilization itself? Are we going to choose implosion or reinvention?
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Polar plastic: 97% of sampled Antarctic seabirds found to have ingested microplastics
Global distribution of study sites and relative 13 species considered (red dots = Arctic sites; red line = Arctic species and samples; yellow dots = Antarctica sites; yellow line = Antarctica species and samples). For each species, the matrices analyzed are shown in a dot near the species’ picture. The articles considered analyzed pellets, stomach contents, pouch contents, and guano. The number of samples considered for each matrix is presented on the bottom, separated for the Arctic (red line) and Antarctica (yellow line). Credit: Frontiers in Marine Science (2024). DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2024.1343617Anthropogenic plastic pollution is often experienced through evocative images of marine animals caught in floating debris, yet its reach is far more expansive. The polar regions of the Arctic and Antarctica are increasingly experiencing the impacts of plastic reaching floating ice and land, not solely as larger macroplastics (>5 cm), but as microplastics (0.1 µm—5 mm) and nanoplastics (<0.1 µm) that may be carried vast distances from their source or be ingested in more populated areas during seasonal migration.
A new review, published in Frontiers in Marine Science, has investigated the scale of this issue, particularly with respect to seabirds who call these glaciated regions home.
Ph.D. researcher Davide Taurozzi and Professor Massimiliano Scalici, of Roma Tre University, Italy, embarked on a project to summarize 40 years of research into seabird ingestion of microplastics, from 1983 to the present day.
Across >1,100 samples, the researchers explored stomach contents, crop pouch near the throat for temporary food storage during foraging trips, guano (excrement mixture of food and metabolic waste) and regurgitated pellets of undigested food and other particles. Pellets formed the main component of the samples, followed by stomach contents and guano, while pouch contents were minimally present.
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Synthetic Controversy
Regarding modern psywar application of the divide and conquer strategy
Chapter 7: Competitive Strategy
In war, the army succeeds by deception(surprising the enemy), by moving the enemy with benefits, and by divide or concentration of forces in variation.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
In his first Italian campaign in 1796 and 1797, Napoleon was outnumbered by nearly 20,000 troops by the Piedmontian and Hapsburg armies. He was able to defeat them by using rapid, forced advances which separated the two armies, allowing him to fight them singly.
The American Civil War provides an excellent example of the “divide and conquer” strategy with Stonewall Jackson’s Shenandoah Valley Campaign. While fielding only 17,000 men, Jackson was able to defeat three Union columns (60,000 troops) by using the difficult to terrain to ambush and fight each singly rather than facing all at once.
In warfare, dividing and conquering is a common tactic. It involves splitting the enemy forces into smaller groups, isolating them, and attacking each group separately to weaken their overall strength.
In politics, divide and conquer tactics typically involve creating divisions among opponents or within rival groups to maintain control or gain an advantage. By sowing discord, exploiting existing divisions, or creating new divisions using the method of synthetic controversies it becomes much easier to weaken opposition and consolidate power.
But how are divide and conquer tactics deployed during modern PsyWar and hybrid warfare?
In media, including legacy/mainstream, social and other alternative media, controversy sells. And it often seems like all media has become much more about sales than about sharing factual information. Controversy generates clicks, re-posting, and message amplification. The controversy can focus on either a substantial or a trivial issue. In modern PsyWar, with its emphasis on censorship, propaganda, and psychological shaping or manipulation, facts and reality are increasingly irrelevant. It is no longer necessary for the controversy to be fact-based…
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March 13, 2024
Climate Crisis-Scientist Rings the Alarm, “We are witnessing consequences of our inaction unfold in real-time.”
Global catastrophe and Global Warming ConceptClimate Crisis-“It turns out the climate is changing for the worse far quicker than predicted by early climate models.“
Climate change is taking affect in an era defined by soaring temperatures and escalating environmental perils, the release of Bill McGuire’s latest work, “Hothouse Earth,” resonates with striking urgency.
As humanity grapples with the profound consequences of climate change, McGuire, an esteemed emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, delivers a sobering narrative that lays bare the stark realities of our planet’s impending climatic catastrophe. In this comprehensive exploration, we delve into McGuire’s compelling analysis, examining the profound implications of his insights and the imperative for decisive action in the face of escalating environmental threats.
Against the backdrop of record-high temperatures and intensifying climate extremes, McGuire’s points out our planet’s perilous trajectory. With a career spanning decades in the field of geophysical and climate hazards, McGuire brings a wealth of expertise to bear on the urgent question of climate change.
From unprecedented heatwaves to catastrophic floods and devastating wildfires, McGuire paints a vivid portrait of the profound disruptions wrought by climate change on ecosystems and societies worldwide.
Beyond the Tipping Point: Understanding Climate Breakdown
At the heart of McGuire’s analysis lies a sobering recognition: we have crossed the threshold into an era of irreversible climate breakdown. Despite decades of warnings and mounting scientific evidence, humanity has failed to heed the call for urgent action on climate change. Now, as McGuire warns, we are witnessing the consequences of our inaction unfold in real-time.
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Alfred McCoy, Living in a Quagmire World
Americans have never liked to think of themselves as part of the West’s imperial history that began with the Roman empire and may now quite literally be ending, as historian and TomDispatch regular Alfred McCoy suggests, in a distinctly un-American moment. The author of a classic history of empire, To Govern the Globe: World Orders and Catastrophic Change, McCoy has previously suggested that, in symbolic terms, if Donald Trump were to win the 2024 presidential election (or even lose it and once again contest it, possibly, thanks to his most fervent followers, in an ominously well-armed fashion), he could prove to be the end of empire personified.
Certainly, as McCoy explains today, it’s hard not to imagine that, from Ukraine to Gaza to Asia, this country is on a dramatic imperial downward slide. His own findings only serve to reinforce a view taking root among America’s European and Asian allies that the United States, globally dominant since 1945 and triumphantly the lone superpower on Planet Earth in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is now experiencing an epoch-ending terminal failure. The global Pax Americana (that proved to have all too much war in it) is, it seems, crumbling amid two grim conflicts, one in Europe and the other in the Middle East, and a political and military stand-off with China that could, at any moment, take a turn for the worse.
And let me add: it’s strange to see the American Moment (and yes, historically speaking, I do think that should be capitalized!) potentially ending here at home with two elderly men locked in an electoral knife fight that could blow the American imperium sky-high from the inside out. Tom
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Minimisation Is The New Denial – climate scientists and the false hope of net-zero
The temperature extremes of 2023 and those coming in 2024, tell us we face the possibility of climate catastrophes that cause the collapse of whole societies and threaten the lives of millions, not at some distant point in our children’s futures but within our own lifetimes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and public-facing scientists have raised awareness and concern but they failed to predict the speed of these accelerating changes and now minimise the immediate threats they pose.
In 2023 the average global temperature was close to 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, the limit which the 2015 Paris COP21 climate summit told us we had to avoid breaching — by the end of the century — to avoid calamitous global consequences. The 12 months to the end of February 2024 took us to 1.56°C and we’re still climbing fast. It is true, as the ‘expert minimisers’ rush to say, that when the current ‘El Niño’ ends temperatures will dip down but they will not get much below 1.5°C again, if ever. These extremes make a mockery of the underestimates in climate scientists’ models, on which humanity’s inadequate climate plans still rely.
This simple, devastating information should be on everyone’s mind, everywhere. Yes, terrible conflicts and injustices rage across the planet but none of them, with no disrespect to the suffering of the people involved, presents the same scale of risks as climate change, not even close. Everyone should be connecting this alarming heating to the increasing number of ever-worsening extreme events they cause, happening on every continent, plus those soon to come — but they are not. Instead, all politicians, the media and most people still just don’t get that we are right now in dangerous, ‘uncharted waters’ (the latest climate cliché no-one listens to) — without a paddle.
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