Steve Bull's Blog, page 53

Hidden threat: Global underground infrastructure vulnerable to sea-level rise

Hidden threat: Global underground infrastructure vulnerable to sea-level riseDr. Shellie Habel of the University of Hawai’i measures the salt concentration of emerging groundwater in a basement in Waikiki. Credit: Chloe Obara, University of Hawai’i

As sea levels rise, coastal groundwater is lifted closer to the ground surface while also becoming saltier and more corrosive. A recent study by Earth scientists at the University of Hawai’i (UH) at Mānoa has compiled research from experts worldwide showing that in cities where there are complex networks of buried and partially buried infrastructure, interaction with this shallower and saltier groundwater exacerbates corrosion and failure of critical systems such as sewer lines, roadways, and building foundations.

The research is published in the journal Annual Review of Marine Science.

“While it has been recognized that shallowing groundwater will eventually result in chronic flooding as it surfaces, what’s less known is that it can start causing problems decades beforehand as groundwater interacts with buried infrastructure,” said Shellie Habel, lead author and coastal geologist in the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) at UH Mānoa. “This knowledge gap often results in coastal groundwater changes being fully overlooked in infrastructure planning.”

The research team aimed to create awareness about these issues and offer guidance from world experts on managing them. Habel and co-authors reviewed existing literature to examine the diverse effects on different types of infrastructure. Additionally, by employing worldwide elevation data and geospatial data that indicate the extent of urban development, they identified 1,546 low-lying coastal cities and towns globally, where around 1.42 billion people live, that are likely experiencing these impacts.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Is Hunting and Gathering Really Better Than Agriculture?

Is Hunting and Gathering Really Better Than Agriculture?

Popcorn Overlook, Lake Burton, Georgia

Answering the question of the title of this entry, an article first published 37 years ago written by Jared Diamond says, “YES!”Comprehending precisely why civilization is unsustainable requires a rather extensive knowledge of the technology of agriculture. But it isn’t enough to simply understand agriculture in and of itself, one must also comprehend how ALL technology use reduces and/or removes negative feedbacks which once used to keep our numbers in check with the rest of nature. Agriculture may have started this process in earnest, but it also provided for innovation in many other fields (pun intended) as I wrote about in this article. Language (both oral speech and written material such as this article) and fire and simple technologies preceded agriculture and were formative innovations. Just like everything else in this blog, these innovations were all seen to be good things by most people until we “lifted the hood to see what’s underneath.”That’s the one true thing about this blog – that I keep finding more and more items which we were all conditioned to believe are good things which in reality have very dark sides to them. Agriculture, technology, civilization, and quite literally many more subjects (those three main topics cover a LOT of ground!)  ALL  have dark sides making them unsustainable. So, to be honest, we’ve been running down the road to extinction for a very long time. We just didn’t really know it, and for most people,  The Limits to Growth  study was probably the first time such a concept even entered one’s mind. William Catton, Jr. brought a reminder to us in 1980 in Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change.…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Getting to the other side of the biodiversity crisis

Getting to the other side of the biodiversity crisis

A 4-pronged strategy can turn the tide of species extinction.

Source: Shutterstock/Open Art

Unless you’ve been hibernating, you know that planet Earth is in the midst of a full-blown, global-scale biodiversity crisis. Biodiversity refers to the total number of organisms across the planet that are present in ecosystems, species and genes.

Across the past 500 million years of Earth’s history, there have been five previous biodiversity “extinction” crises that have wiped out vast pools of living things. Earth’s recovery from these previous known extinctions (none of them caused by humans) has averaged 10 million years. A growing number of scientists and authors have concluded that we have entered the sixth extinction crisis — and this one is attributable to human activities.

Three facts amplify the speed and scale of our expanding biodiversity crisis:

Humans have already exterminated 83 percent of known wild mammals and about one-half of all identified plants and extensively changed two-thirds of marine environments. One million species are at risk of extinction in the next several decades — a rate tens to hundreds of times higher than the average over the past 10 million years.In its 2022 Living Planet Report, WWF has reported an average 69 percent decline in the relative abundance of monitored wildlife populations around the world between 1970 and 2018.Biodiversity loss is accelerating from climate change through its impacts from higher atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, species migration, intensification of forest fires, movement of invasive species, and acidification and warming of marine environments. While these adverse outcomes are not solely explained by climate change, the latter is increasingly a “force multiplier” of widening impacts.

Business as usual for biodiversity protection

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The distinct danger of being naive

The distinct danger of being naive

Don’t assume it’ll all be OK or that you alone will be able to evade the consequences of collapse.

The writer and commentator  is known for his discussions on global economic trends, the decline of the middle class, and the future of economies around the world.

In a post yesterday, he presented a somber forecast of what he says is “the most likely trajectory of the global financial system, based on history and the dynamics of human systems.”

He describes the unsustainable expansion of credit, which has far outpaced real production and consumption and has been supported by inflated asset price bubbles that will inevitably burst.

Most importantly, Smith warns against the naively optimistic idea that it’s possible to completely evade the consequences of economic collapse by holding hard money assets or offshoring wealth. He argues that emergency measures and increased surveillance will likely thwart such attempts.

As the bottom 99.5% feel the squeeze, their rage at those at the top not paying their fair share will rise exponentially, and the political pressure on authorities to go after the hyper-wealthy will become too intense to ignore. Many of those trying to save the system will have already had enough of coddled billionaires, bankers and financier grifters.

Another conviction that will be revealed as naive is the faith that the rules will stay unchanged, allowing us to hoard our stash and emerge unscathed to scoop up the bargains offered by the less prescient. History is again rather definitive: the rules will change overnight, and continue changing, as needed. One “emergency measure” after another will be imposed and become normalized.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Flooding in Central Asia and southern Russia kills scores and forces tens of thousands to evacuate to higher ground

Flooding in Central Asia and southern Russia kills scores and forces tens of thousands to evacuate to higher groundUnusually heavy seasonal rains have left a vast swath of southern Russia and Central Asia reeling from floods, with dozens of people dead in Afghanistan and Pakistan and tens of thousands forced to flee their homes in Kazakhstan and Russia.

Authorities say the flooding — the atypical intensity of which scientists blame on human-driven climate change — is likely to get worse, with more rain predicted and already swollen rivers bursting their banks.

Scores killed in Pakistan and Afghanistan

Lightning and heavy rains killed at least 36 people in Pakistan, mostly farmers, over three days, emergency response officials said Monday, as a state of emergency was declared in the southwest of the country. Most of the deaths were blamed on farmers being struck by lightning and torrential rain collapsing houses, The Associated Press quoted regional disaster management spokesperson Arfan Kathia as saying Monday. He noted that more rain was expected over the coming week.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a televised address that he’d ordered authorities to rush aid to the affected regions, where swollen rivers and flash floods have also severely damaged roads.

Onlookers gaze towards municipal workers using heavy machinery to level the ground after damage due to floodwaters following heavy rains on the outskirts of Quetta on April 15, 2024.BANARAS KHAN/AFP/GETTY

In neighboring Afghanistan, the country’s Taliban rulers said Sunday that heavy flooding from seasonal rains had killed at least 33 people and left more than two dozen others injured over three days. Abdullah Janan Saiq, the spokesman for the government’s disaster management agency, said the flash floods hit the capital, Kabul, and several other provinces.

He said more than 600 homes were damaged or destroyed completely, with hundreds of acres of farmland destroyed and many farm animals killed.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“The Federal Reserve Is Clearly Trapped”: Lawrence Lepard

“The Federal Reserve Is Clearly Trapped”: Lawrence Lepard

Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week.

Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter this week. He gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.

Photo: Kitco

Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his thoughts heading into Q2 2024. The letter has been edited ever-so-slightly for formatting, grammar and visuals.

QUARTERLY OVERVIEW 

Globally, the stock markets continued their 45-degree angle rise during the first quarter. Crude oil, and  commodities broadly, also had a stair-step rise consistently during the quarter. Gold and silver and the  miners were an interesting dichotomy. Bullion prices were flat to slightly down in January and February,  and the miners were clobbered during those early months of Q1. However, in March the price of gold  broke through the long-standing $2,070 ceiling and the miners responded, driving the Fund up by 25.4%.  Gold miner indices were down 17% in the first two months before the March move.

Note that the gold mining stocks still have not provided any leverage to the price of gold. In fact, in the  first quarter they did not even keep pace with the increase in the price of gold. With gold up 8.1% in the  quarter, the gold mining indices were up 2%. Typically, gold miners provide 2x to 3x leverage in terms  of returns; so with gold up 8%, the miners would typically have been up 16% to 24%. This supports our  thesis that the miners are still undervalued and are going to mean revert with a vengeance as this bull  market in gold continues. The gold mining shares have a long way to go before they reflect fair value.

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Iran on the Rise: Retaliation, “Important Military Targets”. Peter Koenig

Iran on the Rise: Retaliation, “Important Military Targets”. Peter Koenig

The warning was on the wall. Ever since Israel attacked “out of the blue” on 1 April 2024 the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing 7, including two generals, an Iranian retaliation was to be expected. 

The New York Times (NYT) reports

“Iran mounted an immense aerial attack on Israel on Saturday night, launching more than 200 drones [other sources talk about 300 drones] and missiles in retaliation for a deadly Israeli airstrike in Syria two weeks ago, and marking a significant escalation in hostilities between the two regional foes.” 

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say there were over 300 areal threats, including some 200 drones, 100 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles. See this.

Israel and her Western friends claim that many of the drones were intercepted by IDF and the help from allied military support. The latter apparently include the UK, France, and Jordan – and most likely also US-NATO forces that have long been stationed in the region.

Nevertheless, according to several RT reports, a large-scale missile and drone attack against Israel has been a success, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said in a statement published by IRNA news agency. The Islamic Republic’s military managed to “hit and destroy” some “important military targets,” it added, without providing any further details.

Short video clips published by Iranian media on social networks, viewing Islamic Republic’s missiles hitting their targets in Israel. Several missiles appeared to have been striking targets in a settlement, RT reports, however without being able to confirm the veracity of the clips.

The Guardian informs, that it was the Islamic Republic’s first-ever direct attack on the Jewish State, a development that brings the two countries to the brink of all-out conflict after more than a decade of shadow war and soaring stress six months into Israel’s war in Gaza, following the Hamas attack last October.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

A Blameless Explanation of Why Everything is Falling Apart, for Schoolkids

A Blameless Explanation of Why Everything is Falling Apart, for Schoolkids

If I were invited to talk to a group of students (of any age) today, to explain why everything seems to be hopeless and falling apart, this is what I think I would tell them.

When I was young and idealistic, back in the 1960s — back when your grandparents were your age — everything seemed possible. We’d apparently forced an end to the ghastly war in Vietnam through our massive protests. We were strident environmentalists, really believing we could avert the global ecological disaster many were already predicting.

There were seven things in particular we thought were true and important to fight for, and there seemed to be nearly universal agreement that these goals were both possible and desirable to achieve:

world peacean equitable (re-)distribution of wealth (and power) — enough that everyone could live a comfortable life, and not so much for anyone that it would inevitably lead to waste or abuseradical action to halt and reverse ecological destruction — we already knew back then about the risk of catastrophic climate changewomen’s equality, and autonomy over their own bodiesfree, universal, quality health care, education, employment security, old-age security, and public transportationenforced regulations to rein in capitalist excesses and oligopolies, and ensure clean, safe communities and workplaces, anda truly democratic polity — a system where the citizenry was well-informed, and the political system was democratic and responsive to the citizens’ collective will.

We didn’t believe that any of these goals would be easy to achieve, but in the late 1960s we thought they were possible. In fact, it was generally considered the absolute responsibility of governments to work towards and sustain these seven goals.

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

“Weasel Words” – Stella Assange Challenges US Over Julian’s Fate

“Weasel Words” – Stella Assange Challenges US Over Julian’s FateStella Assange claims US diplomatic assurances offer no real protection for Julian under the First Amendment.

Stella Assange has once again urged the Biden White House to give up on prosecuting her husband Julian Assange, at the same time accusing the US authorities of resorting to “blatant weasel words” when addressing the issue of granting the WikiLeaks founder First Amendment protections.

In a post on X, Stella Assange said that a diplomatic note from the US that was supposed to provide assurances regarding Assange’s future if extradited to the US did not succeed in doing that.

When it comes to the First Amendment, the note amounted to being “a non-assurance,” Stella wrote, which did not override the prosecution’s claim her husband had no rights guaranteed in this respect because he is not a US citizen. Instead it now only said that he can “seek to raise” the First Amendment if he finds himself in custody in the US.

At the same time, the note contained “a standard assurance in relation to the death penalty,” the post said. (Reuters cited the document as stating that “a sentence of death will neither be sought nor imposed.”)

The note “does nothing to relieve our family’s extreme distress about his future – his grim expectation of spending the rest of his life in isolation in US prison for publishing award-winning journalism,” Stella Assange wrote.

The “assurances” note she is referring to was requested by the British, as a court there is getting ready to issue its final decision regarding Assange’s ability to again appeal extradition. The High Court in London previously said a new appeal would not be possible if the US side provided “certain guarantees.”

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…

Let’s talk about Civil War

Let’s talk about Civil War

The movie, I mean.

Mrs. Woe and I went to see Alex Garland’s Civil War last Sunday evening.1 It’s worth seeing, and if you’re going to see the movie, see it on the big screen at a good theater. We saw it with Dolby Cinema and it was a powerful experience. Our seats vibrated with every gun shot, every helicopter, every explosion. Neither of us had experienced such a visceral war movie since Saving Private Ryan.

Warning: The remainder of this essay will contain spoilers for the movie.

After finishing Civil War, my wife and I discussed its politics. Both of us agreed that Garland had done such a good job of making the movie sufficiently opaque that an average American of either Blue or Red persuasion could enjoy it. Most people would, we felt, look no deeper than the superficial message: “civil war bad.”

But we also both concluded it was, at its core, a left-wing movie. “Given the movie’s left-wing sentiments, the progressive critics must have loved it,” I thought. “Let’s see what they have to say!”

So I opened up Wired.com to read its review, entitled
The Troubling Politics of Alex Garland’s Civil War:

When director Alex Garland sat down in 2020 to write his new movie, Civil War, he was clearly worried about the polarization of American society. The Covid-19 pandemic was just beginning to take hold, and former US president Donald Trump was still in the White House. It was a much different country from the one in which Garland is releasing his biggest film to date.

Garland [has] created… a far-right fantasy recruiting tool. In Civil War, Garland’s apocalyptic US features a country ostensibly stripped of partisan labels, where both the left and right become intolerant of each other and turn deadly….

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…