Steve Bull's Blog, page 5
May 7, 2025
The Bulletin: May 1-7, 2025
If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview .
A Key Longevity Antioxidant Is Fading From Our Food Supply
The Limits of Business-as-Usual in AEO 2025 | Art Berman
Complexity, Collapse, and the Lessons of Late Antiquity
More Than 150 Nobel-Prize Winning Scientists Warn of Imminent Global Famine: “We Must Act Now”
Major Escalation By Pakistan, Firing At International Border, India Responds
Do You Believe In Magic? – by Aurelien
Pakistan Warns It Has ‘Credible Intelligence’ India Will Attack Within 36 Hours | ZeroHedge
Resource Scarcity and Eco-Fascism | Antonio Turiel
Heat and Fire Making Pollution Worse Across Much of the U.S. – Yale e360
Old growth forests in eastern Canada show that the climate started changing almost 100 years ago
Technology Addiction and Lessons, Part 2
Death of Empires: History Tells Us What Will Follow the Collapse of US Hegemony | Covert Geopolitics
The 5 Stages of Collapse: Will We Survive the Breaking Point?
Information Burnout: Are We Past Peak Sensemaking?
The two horsemen of the net zero apocalypse
Self-Inflicted Civilizational Collapse — An Ancient Climate Story
Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the International Dictatorship of the Future
Global Food Prices Climb Toward Arab Spring-Era Highs Amid Trade War Turmoil | ZeroHedge
El Blackout – by Isaac Orr and Mitch Rolling
How to reduce microplastic exposure and protect your health
Seabed Mining, Health Mining, and Health/Enviro Unity
A Clash of Titans – The Honest Sorcerer
#302: At the end of modernity, part one | Surplus Energy Economics
Human Extinction Ahead: How Many Years Left? – by Ugo Bardi
Why More Shale Oil Is Not Gonna Happen
The Mouse Utopia That Ended in Collapse — And Why Humanity is Next
Climate change and the Overton Window – resilience
The 6th Mass Extinction | Are We Witnessing a Silent Apocalypse?
Waking Up From The Nightmare Of Western Civilization
Techno-Optimism Won’t Save the Day
US Crude Oil Output to Peak As Early As This Year: Kpler | ZeroHedge
Trump Leaves Another Clue About Who Blew Up the Nord Stream Pipeline
The Collapse of Civilization is Ongoing. There’s a Lot to Like About That.
Does the Concept of Pollution Match the Complexity of Human-Biosphere Interactions?
India Launches Strikes On Pakistan After Terror Attack | ZeroHedge
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
April 30, 2025
The Bulletin: April 24-30, 2025
This past week’s articles of interest…
If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview .
Killing People by Lies: The New CO2 Campaign
$10T Money Print! Fed’s New Plan Will Dwarf Bernanke Era | ZeroHedge
How I Unintentionally Became an Urban Farmer
Banned DDT discovered in Canadian trout decades after use, research finds | Pollution | The Guardian
The Once and Future Nuke – by Albert Bates
By Disaster or Design – by Matt Orsagh
Rights of Nature as Direct Action to Confront Unjust Systems of Power
Brace for rapid changes in the economy; the world economy is reaching Limits to Growth
The 19 richest households in America added $1 trillion in wealth last year
Pakistan Warns Of ‘Act Of War’ After India Cancels Landmark Water Treaty | ZeroHedge
Kremlin Issues Nuclear Warning Aimed At West As Ukraine Peace Efforts Stall | ZeroHedge
Told You So. Trump’s Top Adviser Just Confirmed the Reset
Bringing Back the Rains To Southern Africa
Seeing lost winters, not just rising temperatures, shakes climate indifference
India Warned of ‘Act of War’ By Pakistan As Relations Collapse – Newsweek
India, Pakistan Trade Gunfire & Build-Up Militaries After Kashmir Terror Attack | ZeroHedge
There is No Way Out of This That Doesn’t Involve Money Printing | ZeroHedge
Major Iranian Port Paralyzed: 700 Injured, 5 Dead After Massive Explosion | ZeroHedge
Tensions over Kashmir and a warming planet have placed the Indus Waters Treaty on life support
Health Prepping: Seed Oils Are Poison
Energy transition: the end of an idea – by Chris Smaje
Thorium nuclear bombs and reactors have too many challenges – Peak Everything, Overshoot, & Collapse
How Much Is Enough? – Charles Hugh Smith’s Substack
Part 2: Interview With Just Collapse
Longtermism: The Key to Human Survival?
Belligerence On ‘Energy Dominance’ Is Losing The U.S. Respect
The CEOs of Walmart, Target, Home Depot Warn That Store Shelves All Over America Could Soon Be Empty
The Endlessness of a Temporary Tax – Doug Casey’s International Man
Population Control Versus Population Growth
William of Ockham and the Collapse Of Complexity: A Razor’s Edge for the End Times
Supply Chain Crisis Looms: Shortages Set to Slam Markets! | ZeroHedge
Product shortages and empty store shelves loom with falling shipments from China
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
April 25, 2025
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCII– Hydrocarbons: Our Finite, Master Energy Resource and the Implications Of Its Peak For Modernity
Hydrocarbons: Our Finite, Master Energy Resource and the Implications Of Its Peak For Modernity
Sun setting on an oil field.
If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview .
I’m finding that Large Language Models (LLMs) are a fantastic tool for skimming large amounts of information and summarising what it has scanned–it might take me hours/days/weeks to locate, access, read, interpret, summarise in my own words, and then review multiple times for grammar/spelling/flow of thought/etc. a fraction of the data that these computer programmes can take seconds to do. As such, I’ve spent some time using one for the purpose of following some thoughts on Peak Oil, a topic that I have been interested in for 15+ years and continue to keep at the forefront of my thinking when interpreting world events and attempting to better understand our modern, complex societies.
As I’ve asserted repeatedly, energy is everything. Nothing exists without it and it is most certainly fundamental to human complex societies–the more energy we have available and use, the larger and more complex our societies and their various systems become. Yes, our ingenuity and technological prowess have helped us create and build these complexities, but it is all underpinned by energy of one form or another and we have repeatedly leveraged energy to support our various adaptations, technologies, and massive expansion to most corners of our planet.
Our modern world is dependent upon huge amounts of energy and in particular that provided by a finite cache of hydrocarbons. From an energy perspective hydrocarbons–particularly oil–are the commodity resource that should be considered humanity’s ‘master energy resource’; and it is one that appears irreplaceable given its energy-return-on-investments, density, transportability, and a variety of other characteristics that have led to its primacy in supporting our societal complexities.
And for better or worse, the waning days of this phenomenal and paramount energy resource are clearly in sight (or at least should be). So what are the implications of this for ‘Modernity’?
Let’s explore what the LLM Deepseek (DS) garners from the information it has access to regarding this hugely significant resource.
I asked the following five preparatory questions:
How much oil does the world use per day? What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery? What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable? What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources? What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?My culminating question based upon the responses to the above inquiries:
Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?The response to this last question begins by stating: “The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability.”
And DS concludes: “Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse.” (You can find the full responses to my questions directly below my opening comments.)
First, ‘profound’ would be one way to describe what Peak Oil portends for our societies. The peaking and subsequent shortfall in hydrocarbon extraction will send (is sending?) our current societal systems spinning in some very ‘interesting’ ways–including some Black Swan events that few, if any, can envision.
There’s a very good argument that this process began quite a number of years ago and has resulted in such ‘adaptations’ as significant expansion of manipulation/machination within impacted societal systems, especially our economic and geopolitical ones. And this will be/is particularly true for the current global hegemon (i.e., the US-NATO Empire) whose ‘power’ is greatly at risk as a result–continued expansion and control is virtually impossible without massive energy resources to support them.
Second, while I disagree with the ‘solution’ (pursuit of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’) proposed by DS–not that I asked for one–I am not surprised by it.
LLMs base their ‘answers’ to questions upon the prompts that are inputted by the person performing the inquiry and the data/information they have access to. Most individuals and groups (including, but especially profit-driven industries, governments, and academic institutions) are firmly entrenched in the denial and bargaining phases of awareness concerning our energy-resource predicament, and they are the ones that have dominated our research, reporting, and conversations about the issue.
As such, our media and public spaces are flooded with the narrative (and derivations of it) that human ingenuity and our technological prowess can ‘solve’ any ‘problem’ that we encounter–and those that can have leveraged this societal belief to extract ‘wealth’ and reinforced it at every opportunity. On top of this, most have not only been conditioned to believe this tale but want to believe desperately that it is true. So, it is not the least bit surprising that LLMs would ‘conclude’ that we can address the predicament of Peak Oil via our technology of ‘renewables’ and forthcoming ‘clean’ energy ‘breakthroughs’. (I can’t help but think of the saying “garbage in, garbage out”, or in this case: “hopium in, hopium out”.)
Whether you agree with DS’s proposed ‘solution’ to this predicament depends greatly upon your worldview/paradigm/schema/interpretive lens and the stage of awareness/grieving you find yourself presently within. If you do hold this story to be ‘true’, I recommend looking behind the curtain of the ‘renewables-will-save-us’ storyline and especially into the dark corners where is hidden the disastrous impacts upon our ecosystems of the production of these industrial products and their reliance upon massive hydrocarbon inputs.
To sum up the ‘risks’ and ‘solutions’ the LLM DS suggests regarding a peaking of oil resources [along with what I suspect may accompany each]:
-Hydrocarbon price volatility due to supply shocks and geopolitical conflict [expect deflection regarding what is causing price volatility and the ramping up of nationalism, warmongering, and othering in light of geopolitical tensions].
-Risk to economic systems as prices inflate due to higher energy costs [expect dramatic debt-/credit-based money ‘creation’ and significant price inflation–blamed on anything but waning hydrocarbon supplies, money ‘printing’, and wealth extraction by the ruling ‘elite’ and various snake oil salesmen].
-Escalating geopolitical tensions due to resource nationalisation and competition [even more nationalism, warmongering, and othering along with reasons for everyone (except the elite) to tighten their belts as we invest ever-greater amounts of resources into domestic resource exploration/extraction and the military–to help in accessing/controlling non-domestic resources].
-Technological adaptation to minimise reliance upon hydrocarbons [expect the narratives surrounding our ability to ‘solve’ hydrocarbon supply shocks to be ever-present and arguments for gargantuan monetary investments in these technologies and research around them; along with massive wealth gains for those connected to these–completely ‘justifiable’ because they’re ‘saving the world’].
-Increasing energy poverty, particularly for the already ‘disadvantaged/marginalised’ [expect those already suffering from our current socioeconomic and sociopolitical systems to take it on the chin even more while our ‘leaders’ argue that just the opposite will occur with our energy-security and military ‘investments’–in other words, even more pronounced socioeconomic inequality and increasing narrative management regarding this].
It’s certainly a fine mess we find ourselves caught up in. Prepare accordingly…
A handful of my recent Contemplations that touch on the subjects discussed above:
-Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future. March 28, 2025. Website Medium Substack
-Imperial Longevity, ‘Collapse’ Causes, and Resource Finiteness. March 7, 2025. Website Medium Substack
-Beyond Peak Oil: Will Our Cities Collapse? February 20, 2025. Website Medium Substack
-‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1. January 12, 2025. Website Medium Substack; Part 2. January 25. Website Medium Substack; Part 3. January 31. Website Medium Substack
–US Peak Shale Oil & Gas: When the Walls Come Tumblin’ Down. December 30, 2024. Website Medium Substack
-Sorry, folks, but ‘renewables’ are NOT going to save humanity or the planet. December 1, 2024. Website Medium Substack
–Collapse = Prolonged Period of Diminishing Returns + Significant Stress Surge(s), Part 1. October 7, 2024. Website Medium Substack; Part 2. October 15. Website Medium Substack;Part 3. October 23. Website Medium Substack; Part 4. October 28. Website Medium Substack
–‘Renewables’: The Great ‘Solution’ (NOT). August 20, 2024. Website Medium Substack
The detailed DeepSeek responses follow.
How much oil does the world use per day?As of recent data (2023-2024), the world consumes approximately 100 million barrels of oil per day (mb/d). This figure includes all forms of petroleum liquids, such as crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and refinery processing gains. =
Key Insights on Global Oil Consumption:
Top Consumers:– United States (~20 mb/d)
– China (~15–16 mb/d)
– India (~5–6 mb/d)
– European Union (~13–14 mb/d combined)
Demand Trends:– Oil demand has been rising gradually, driven by emerging economies (Asia, Africa, Middle East).
– Developed nations are seeing slower growth due to energy transitions and efficiency improvements.
Future Projections:– The International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC expect demand to peak between 2030–2040 as renewable energy and electric vehicles expand.
– Short-term demand remains strong due to industrial needs, aviation, and petrochemicals.
What percentage of oil reserves get extracted within 5-10 years of discovery?The percentage of oil reserves extracted within 5–10 years of discovery depends on several factors, including the type of reservoir, technology, economics, and geopolitical conditions. Here’s a general breakdown:
Typical Recovery Rates in Early Years
Conventional Oil Fields (Easy-to-extract reserves):– ~10–30% of the total recoverable reserves may be extracted in the first 5–10 years.
– Faster extraction occurs in large, high-pressure fields (e.g., Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar).
– Offshore and deepwater projects (e.g., Brazil’s pre-salt) may take longer due to complexity.
Unconventional Oil (Shale, Tight Oil, Oil Sands):– ~20–50% of reserves can be extracted quickly (within 5–10 years) due to hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling.
– However, shale wells decline rapidly (~60–70% in the first year), so continuous drilling is needed.
Heavy Oil & Oil Sands (e.g., Canada’s Alberta):– Only ~5–15% may be extracted in the first decade due to slower, energy-intensive extraction methods (e.g., steam-assisted gravity drainage).
Key Factors Affecting Early Extraction
– Technology: Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods (e.g., CO₂ injection) can speed up extraction.
– Economics: High oil prices incentivize faster development.
– Regulations: Strict environmental policies (e.g., Norway, U.S. offshore) may delay production.
– Field Size: Giant fields (>1 billion barrels) take longer to develop but produce for decades.
Long-Term vs. Short-Term Extraction
– Most fields produce for 20–50 years, with peak output often 5–15 years after discovery.
– Example: The Permian Basin (U.S.) saw rapid fracking-driven extraction, while deepwater fields (e.g., Guyana’s Stabroek) take ~5–7 years from discovery to first oil.
What percentage of discovered oil reserves tend to end up as actually recoverable?The percentage of discovered oil reserves that end up being actually recoverable depends on geological, technological, and economic factors. Here’s a breakdown of key concepts and estimates:
Definitions– Original Oil in Place (OOIP): Total oil in a reservoir (100%).
– Proved Reserves (1P): Oil that is ~90% likely to be recoverable with current tech/economics.
– Recoverable Reserves: What can realistically be extracted over time (usually 30–60% of OOIP).
Recovery Factors by Reservoir Type:Reservoir TypeTypical Recovery FactorNotesConventional Oil (e.g., Saudi Arabia, North Sea)20–50%Depends on pressure, permeability, and secondary recovery (water/gas injection).Unconventional (Shale/Tight Oil) (e.g., U.S. Permian Basin)5–15%** (per well)Fracking improves extraction, but wells decline fast.Heavy Oil/Oil Sands** (e.g., Canada, Venezuela)5–30%Requires steam or solvent injection (SAGD).Deepwater/Offshore** (e.g., Brazil pre-salt)15–40%High-tech extraction but challenging conditions. Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)** (CO₂, chemical flooding30–60%+Can boost recovery beyond primary/secondary methods.Why Isn’t 100% Recovered?
– Physical Limitations: Oil sticks to rocks (residual saturation), and reservoirs lose pressure.
– Economic Constraints: Extracting the last 20–30% may cost more than the oil’s value.
– Technological Barriers:Some reserves (e.g., ultra-deep, Arctic) are too difficult with current tech.
Industry Trends Improving Recovery– Digital Oilfields (AI, sensors) optimize extraction.
– EOR Methods (CO₂ injection, microbes) push recovery rates higher.
– Nanotechnology & Advanced Fracking** help tap more shale oil.
Real-World Examples– Ghawar Field (Saudi Arabia): ~50–60% recovery (best-case conventional).
– Permian Shale Wells: ~5–10% per well, but new drilling keeps reserves “replenished.”
– Alberta Oil Sands: ~10–20% recovery via mining, up to ~30% with in-situ methods.
Bottom Line
Globally, only about 35–45% of discovered oil is typically recovered from conventional fields, with some EOR pushing it to 50–60% in ideal cases. Unconventional oil (shale, heavy oil) often recovers far less (5–30%).
What percentage of recent oil production comes from unconventional sources?As of recent data (2023–2024), unconventional oil sources (shale/tight oil, oil sands, and deepwater) contribute a significant and growing share of global oil production. Here’s the breakdown:
Global Oil Production: Unconventional vs. Conventional
SourceShare of Global ProductionKey RegionsUnconventional (Total)~30–35% (~30–35 million barrels per day)U.S., Canada, Brazil, ArgentinaShale/Tight Oil~15–18%** (~15–18 mb/d)U.S. (Permian, Bakken), Argentina (Vaca Muerta)Oil Sands~5–6%** (~5–6 mb/d) Canada (Alberta)Deepwater/Ultra-Deep~8–10%** (~8–10 mb/d)Brazil (pre-salt), Gulf of Mexico, West AfricaConventional Oil~65–70%** (~65–70 mb/d)Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE
Key Trends
U.S. Dominance in Shale Oil– The U.S. is the world’s **top oil producer**, thanks to fracking (shale/tight oil accounts for ~65% of U.S. production).
– The Permian Basin alone produces ~6–7 mb/d (more than most OPEC countries).
Canada’s Oil Sands– Alberta’s oil sands produce ~3.5–4 mb/d, but growth is slowing due to climate policies.
Brazil’s Deepwater Boom– Pre-salt fields (e.g., Tupi, Búzios) now produce ~2.5–3 mb/d, making Brazil a top-5 global producer.
OPEC’s Declining Share– Conventional oil (led by OPEC+) still dominates, but its market share has dropped from ~50% in 2000 to ~35–40% today due to the U.S. shale revolution.
Future Outlook
– Unconventional production (especially shale) will remain critical but faces challenges:
– Shale decline rates (wells lose ~60% of output in Year 1).
– Investment constraints (ESG pressures, fewer new drillings).
– Deepwater and oil sands will grow moderately, while shale may peak in the 2030s.
What is the trend for new oil field discoveries for the past twenty years?Over the past 20 years (2004–2024), the trend in new oil field discoveries has shifted dramatically, with significant implications for global supply. Here’s a breakdown of key trends:
Declining Volume of Discoveries– 2000s (Peak Era):
– Annual discoveries averaged ~15–20 billion barrels (Gb) of oil equivalent (boe) in the early 2000s.
– Major finds: Kashagan (Kazakhstan, 2000), Tupi (Brazil pre-salt, 2006), Jubilee (Ghana, 2007).
– 2010s (Sharp Drop):
– Discoveries fell to ~5–10 Gb/year, with a record low of ~4 Gb in 2016 (Rystad Energy).
– Reason: High exploration costs, focus on shale, and underinvestment in conventional drilling.
– 2020s (Partial Recovery):
– Improved technology (AI, seismic imaging) boosted discoveries to ~8–12 Gb/year, but still below replacement levels.
– Recent giants: Guyana’s Stabroek Block (Exxon, 2015+), Namibia’s Venus (2022).
Shift to Offshore & Unconventional– Deepwater/Ultra-Deepwater Dominance:
– ~60% of new reserves since 2010 came from offshore (Brazil, Guyana, Namibia).
– Example: Guyana’s discoveries (>11 Gb since 2015) now produce ~600,000 b/d (rising to 1.2+ mb/d by 2027).
– Shale’s Short-Term Boom:
– U.S. tight oil surged but relies on reserve growth via drilling (not new field discoveries).
– Shale adds ~5–10 Gb/year in “technically recoverable” reserves but has steep decline rates.
Smaller Average Field Size– Pre-2000: Average discovery size was ~500 million barrels (Mb).
– Post-2010: Dropped to ~100 Mb, with fewer “elephant” fields (>1 Gb).
– Exceptions:
– Guyana (Exxon’s Stabroek: 11 Gb+**).
– Namibia (TotalEnergies’ Venus: **~3 Gb+**).
Replacement Ratio Crisis– Global oil consumption:~35–40 Gb/year.
– Discoveries vs. Demand:
– Only ~20–30% of consumed oil was replaced by new discoveries in the past decade.
– The industry now relies more on reserve growth in existing fields (e.g., EOR, shale drilling).
5. Future Outlook
– Offshore Focus: Brazil, Guyana, Namibia, and the East Mediterranean will drive new supply.
– Exploration Risks:
– ESG pressures limit investment in frontier regions (e.g., Arctic).
– National oil companies (NOCs) now dominate exploration (vs. shrinking major oil firm budgets).
Key Takeaway
New discoveries have failed to keep pace with demand since the 2010s, pushing the industry toward:
Smaller, technically complex fields (deepwater, shale). Lower-carbon extraction (methane reduction, CCUS). Geopolitical shifts (Guyana/Namibia rising, Middle East stabilizing). Given that: the world uses 100 million barrels of oil per day; only 10-30% of conventional oil fields, 20-50% of unconventional oil, and 5-15% of heavy oil can be recovered within 5-10 years of discovery; only 35-45% of conventional fields and 5-30% of unconventional oil is typically recovered; unconventional oil sources provide a significant and growing share of oil production; and that for the past twenty years new oil discoveries have failed to keep up with demand, what are the implications for modern, complex societies?The implications of these trends for modern, complex societies are profound, touching on energy security, economic stability, geopolitics, and environmental sustainability. Here’s a breakdown of the key challenges and potential outcomes:
Energy Security & Supply Crunches– Growing Demand vs. Stagnant Discoveries:
– The world consumes ~35–40 billion barrels/year, but discoveries replace only 20–30% of that.
– Result: Dependence on existing fields (many in decline) and unconventional sources (costly, finite).
– Geopolitical Vulnerabilities:
– Reliance on a shrinking number of producers (OPEC+, U.S. shale, Guyana, Brazil) increases price volatility.
– Conflicts or underinvestment could trigger supply shocks (e.g., 1970s-style crises).
Economic Risks– Higher Oil Prices:
– Tighter supply + rising demand (especially from Asia) could push prices above $100/barrel long-term.
– Inflationary pressure on transport, manufacturing, and food production.
– Shale’s Limits:
– U.S. tight oil has peaked in prime basins (Permian growth slowing by 2030s).
– Fracking requires continuous drilling—capital and labor shortages could disrupt output.
Geopolitical Shifts– New Power Centers:
– Guyana, Brazil, and Namibia gain influence; traditional producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia) face budget strains.
– Resource Nationalism:
– Countries may hoard reserves (e.g., Mexico’s PEMEX reforms, Venezuela’s sanctions battles).
– Energy Wars:
– Competition over remaining resources (Arctic, South China Sea) could escalate tensions.
Industrial & Technological Adaptation– Efficiency & Substitution:
– Airlines, shipping, and petrochemicals will face scarcity-driven innovation (e.g., biofuels, hydrogen).
– Electric vehicles (EVs) reduce transport demand but won’t offset industrial/oil-heavy sectors fast enough.
– Enhanced Recovery:
– AI, robotics, and nanotechnology may squeeze 5–15% more oil from old fields, delaying collapse.
Societal & Environmental Strains– Energy Poverty:
– Rising prices disproportionately hit low-income households (heating, transportation costs).
– Climate Trade-Offs:
– Societies may delay decarbonization to secure oil (e.g., Europe’s post-Ukraine coal revival).
– Or accelerate renewables if oil shocks become frequent (1970s spurred nuclear/solar investments).
Potential Scenarios1. “Muddling Through” (Most Likely)
– Oil prices oscillate between $80–150/barrel, driving slow adoption of alternatives.
– Repeated supply crunches spur stop-gap measures (coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids).
2. Crisis & Collapse
– A major geopolitical disruption (e.g., war in the Gulf) triggers global recession.
– Shortages cripple logistics chains (food, medicines) and destabilize governments.
3. Rapid Transition
– Oil shocks force WWII-scale mobilization into renewables, nuclear, and synthetic fuels.
– Cities redesign transport (walkability, EVs), industries pivot to circular economies.
Key Takeaways for Policymakers & Businesses
Diversify Energy Mix: Fast-track renewables, nuclear, and hydrogen to reduce oil dependence. Strategic Reserves: Expand stockpiles for supply disruptions. Demand Reduction: Mandate efficiency (CAFE standards, industrial electrification). Geopolitical Alliances: Secure partnerships with stable producers (e.g., U.S.-Guyana ties).Bottom Line
Modern societies built on cheap, abundant oil face a decade of reckoning. The choices made now—between clinging to fossil fuels or aggressively transitioning—will determine whether the 21st century sees managed adaptation or chaotic collapse.
Exploring questions of the impact upon the planet’s ecosystems of the proposed ‘solution’ of an aggressive transition to ‘renewables’ is fodder for a future Contemplation…
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
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AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
April 23, 2025
The Bulletin: April 17-23, 2025
If you’re new to my writing, check out this overview .
How Climate Change Fuels Increasing Wildfire Disasters
Extended Heatwave in India, Pakistan To Test Survivability
History Will Not Repeat Itself – George Tsakraklides
Zero-Based Extinction: Nature’s Life Support Gets a Sunset Clause
The Structure of Geopolitical Revolutions | Art Berman
Technology Addiction and Lessons
The unregulated link in a toxic supply chain | Grist
What will happen when the world runs out of oil? | 60 Minutes Australia
EIA Says U.S. Oil Production Will Peak in 2027 | OilPrice.com
Unintended Consequences in a Complex World – by Nate Hagens
How Things Break: Hyper-Optimization
Being Certain About Uncertainty – The Honest Sorcerer
2030 Doomsday Scenario: The Great Nuclear Collapse
Poverty and Progress – by Gunnar Rundgren
Our Sad Species | how to save the world
What’s “Normal” in a Hyper-Normalized World?
Science Snippets: The Disasters Of Cooking and Heating With Plastic
Pope Francis Failed: Now we Need a New Religion?
From Gridlock to Road Rage: What Collapse Feels Like
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
April 16, 2025
The Bulletin: April 10-16, 2025
Living Without Fossil Fuels: How Living Energy Farm Created a Comfortable Off-Grid Lifestyle
The Economics Of A Dying Empire
The Sharp Turn: Global Collapse Picks Up Speed
Uruguay – by Matt Orsagh – Degrowth is the Answer
New Trump Orders Aim to Keep Coal Power Alive, Despite Climate and Economic Costs
Economists now say a dire economic slowdown has already begun – MarketWatch
Street Medics For A Just Collapse
Trump Suggests Israel Would ‘Lead’ Possible Attack On Iran | ZeroHedge
Contamination threatens the last source of clean groundwater in west New Mexico – High Country News
Water Wars, Begun They Have | ZeroHedge
We are losing soil moisture, why? – by Anastassia Makarieva
THE DEEPER DIVE: The Economic World Order Is Cracking up and Taking the Dollar Down with it
On the Path to War with Iran – Glenn Diesen’s Substack
Peak Population: The Global Reversal Unfolds – by Ugo Bardi
China Halts Rare Earth Exports Desperately Needed by the US – MishTalk
Why Bug Out States Are Not a Good Idea to Move Into
Canadian mayors push federal leaders for action on climate, not pipelines | CBC News
Trade, Tariffs, Currencies, Colonialism, the Gold Watch and Everything
Putting the Earth Back in Model Land | Art Berman
Our World Is Paved With Indifference
How Modern Lifestyles Contribute to Disease – Global Research
No More Heroes Or Seeking Strong Gods
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
April 9, 2025
The Bulletin: April 3-9, 2025
This past week’s articles of interest…
Nuclear Infrastructure and Radioactive Threats in a Post-Collapse World
We May Be Directly at War with Russia Already
Green Colonialism Is Still Colonialism
How the US Ran the War In Ukraine
Rewilding 15 Million Acres: Why True Wealth Means More Than Money
Planned blackouts are becoming more common − and not having cash on hand could cost you
Iran, False Flags, and Manufacturing Consent For War
The Amazon rainforest emerges as the new global oil frontier
Everything in Moderation – by Matt Orsagh
Pollinator and Civilizational Collapse
Water Is the New Oil’ as Texas Cities Square Off Over Aquifers – Inside Climate News
Net Zero and Other Delusions: What Can’t, Won’t and Might Happen
China Strikes Back With 34 Percent Tariffs, Stocks Plunge Second Day – MishTalk
Catastrophe Looms Above: Space Junk Problem Grew ‘Significantly Worse’ In 2024 | ZeroHedge
Is a Global Economic Crash Required to Trigger a Social Reset?
Oxygen is running low in inland waters—and human activities are to blame
Did the Bronze Age Collapse Predict Our Future? Ancient Lessons for Modern Civilization
Wars Make the Rich Richer and the Poor Dead
Bye-Bye Saudi America – The Honest Sorcerer
The Collapse of the American Empire – by Ugo Bardi
Words Won’t Cut It – by Rachel Donald – Planet: Critical
Empire Diminished. – by Matt Orsagh
15 Biggest Environmental Problems of 2025 | Earth.Org
How Survivors Spanned The Globe After Earth’s Biggest Mass Extinction – Astrobiology
Pentagon Prepares for Trump to Go Berserk
Maximum Power, Minimum Awareness | Art Berman
3 Shocking Truths Most People Don’t Know About Money in Bank Accounts…
The Doomer’s Dilemma | Collapse of Industrial Civilization
What Are the Rights of Nature? – Inside Climate News
Oil Execs Warn Privately That Trump’s ‘Chaos’ Could Be ‘Disaster’ for Their Industry – DeSmog
“The Bailout Of All Bailouts” Is Coming
We’ve Become Business Partners in the Apocalypse
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
April 2, 2025
The Bulletin: March 27-April 2, 2025
This past week’s articles of interest…
Swedish shoppers boycott supermarkets over ‘runaway’ food prices | Sweden | The Guardian
The future of wetlands: Predicting ecological shifts in the Middle Yangtze River Basin
Agriculture in the Crosshairs: Breadbasket Collapse at 2°C and 3°C
US Government is a Big Money Laundering Operation – John Rubino | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog
Ukraine Was CIA Regime Change Operation – by Jeffrey Sachs
Collapse: What Would Grok Do? – by Ugo Bardi
Clouds may amplify global warming far more than previously understood
States Work To Make Gold and Silver Alternative Currencies To US Dollar
Resistance and the First Amendment: What You Can (and Can’t) Say in a Dying Empire
Earth’s storage of water in soil, lakes and rivers is dwindling. And it’s especially bad for farming
Earth’s Land Masses Are Drying Out Fast, Scientists Warn – Inside Climate News
Can We Find Unity in Collapse? – by Geoffrey Deihl
Researchers Identify Diets In Mid-Life Linked To Healthy Aging
Foes and Friends of Nuclear Power Face Off Near Three Mile Island
MIT Predicted Society Collapse: Are We Doomed Sooner Than Expected?
From the Archives: So That’s Who’s Screwing Up Everything
Guide to Personal and Household Preparedness
Biodiversity Collapse, Climate Feedback Loops, the Population Bottleneck, and Human Extinction
This Is Collapse. What Do We Do Now?
Ishmael: Chapter 2 | Do the Math
Biden Lied About Everything, Including Nuclear Risk, During Ukraine Operation
Advanced Economies Are Being Pushed Toward Financial Collapse
Ice storm leaves more than 450 000 customers without power in U.S. and Canada
The Loneliness Of Ecological Awareness
The High Price Of War With Iran: $10 Gas And The Collapse Of The US Economy
Rethinking Science, Reclaiming Wisdom | Art Berman
BRACE FOR IMPACT – by Margi Prideaux, PhD – Radically Local
Redrawing Boundaries in a Multipolar World: A New Phase of World War 3
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
March 28, 2025
Today’s Contemplation: Collapse Cometh CCI– Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future
Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation: Envisioning An Alternative Future
Pompeii, Italy (1992). Photo by author.
Following on the heels of my Contemplation that looked at a Peak Oil article that focused upon whether our cities would ‘collapse’ or not as a result of waning hydrocarbons (see: Website; Medium; Substack), I offer a summary and some thoughts regarding the final chapter of the book Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conversation that forwards the prospects for an alternative future to a ‘collapsing’ one.
The book itself offers a variety of perspectives written by an assortment of academics and other experts on subjects that overlap with energy, economics, and ecology. Below is the Table of Contents from this monograph.
While I only read the final chapter, there seemed to be some conflicting messages within its body: a recognition of our predicaments but the proposal of ‘solutions’ that tend to prolong or exacerbate the mechanisms mostly responsible for our dilemma.
First, on the one hand the editors argue that ‘renewables’ cannot possibly support industrial civilisation, their production consists of ecologically-destructive processes, and the scale of industrial manufacturing being called for by many would result in devastating and significant detrimental environmental impacts. On the other hand, they suggest that we should pursue these technologies to help us with the impending consequences of Peak Oil and climate change.
Another example of such conflicting messaging is the argument that ‘advanced’ economies need to reduce their consumption dramatically but that material throughputs should continue in order for ‘emerging’ economies to grow theirs. This is one of the suggestions that I have heard from a number of people within the ‘environmental’ movement and have some difficulty with.
Is shifting economic growth from advanced economies to emerging ones going to dramatically reduce material throughputs and all the deleterious impacts such activity has on our planet and its ecosystems?
It seems increasingly obvious that advanced economies need to throttle back their consumption dramatically if we are to hope for a reduction in the destruction that has accompanied economic growth systems, but I am not in agreement with the suggestion that this should be shifted towards emerging economies in an attempt to bolster their growth–and consequently their dependence upon modernity’s extractive and destructive industrial systems. Given how far we seem to be into ecological overshoot and the fact that continued material throughput exacerbates that situation, attempts to grow economies anywhere is problematic (and certainly not ‘sustainable’).
In fact, in their discussion on economic growth the authors raise the unsustainability of its pursuit. So, why would we encourage it anywhere? This problematic aspect of complex societies’ chasing of perpetual growth should be obvious to anyone who appreciates the finiteness of resources within the closed system that is our planet.
Unfortunately, many do not see this impediment to continuing growth. I believe this is thanks mostly to the stories that have been created to rationalise it–particularly the tales about human ingenuity and associated technological innovation’s ability to ‘bypass’ the restrictions that the finiteness of resources creates. It is here I would recommend viewing the presentation by the late Dr. Albert Bartlett, entitled Arithmetic, Population, and Energy, that demonstrates how quickly exponential growth can overwhelm a system.
The tendency of many to deny the issues raised in their book and place their faith in technological ‘breakthroughs’ is also discussed. What I believe most of the tech-faithful don’t realise is that the vast majority of such ‘breakthroughs’ never materialise and tend to be marketing/hype to attract investment in the project being highlighted–either directly or by way of government. But ‘success’ in controlled lab settings or with small-scale trials rarely if ever can be scaled up to meet civilisational needs–if such ‘success’ is even ever realised.
Add to this that many ‘innovations’ are energy and/or resource intensive (sometimes even sinks), requiring the destructive extraction and refinement of materials to continue and/or grow. ‘Breakthroughs’ are often simply profit-seeking schemes perpetuated by snake oil salesmen with media complicity through the ‘advertising’ of them. Their hype is meant to attract investors, not ‘solve’ anything for the benefit of society.
Another of the suggestions in the chapter that I have difficulty with is looking to our political systems to steer the establishment of self-sufficient communities. This is, in my opinion, misguided; as I have written about repeatedly. Subscribing to the Conflict Theory of how our governing institutions came to be and have ‘evolved’ (as opposed to Integrationist/Structural Functionalism Theory which the elite tend to push), I hold that our political systems are not the beneficent institutions we have been led to believe and that the political class and media crow on about repeatedly.
The systems’ primary role is and has been to help the ruling caste of society control and expand the wealth-generation and -extraction systems that provide their revenue streams. They ‘kick back’ a portion of this wealth to the masses to support the narratives about them being ‘representative’ of the people and acting in their best interests, but they siphon off most of the ‘wealth’ being generated by society and extracted from Nature. They only care about the environment in their messaging, not in their actions. And they certainly take no responsibility for the consequences of these actions.
Apart from these ‘inconsistencies’, the chapter (and book) cover some of the most important issues that confront our species and planet. Perhaps the most significant aspect raised in this text is the need to protect the planet’s wildlife and the ecosystems that all species depend upon. The options for doing this ‘successfully’, I’m afraid, are few.
If humanity wishes to avoid Nature responding in ways we probably don’t want or will ‘enjoy’, it seems to me that rapid and significant degrowth is the only remaining option. Given the ‘costs’ that would be involved and who the primary societal ‘influencers’ tend to be, I am increasingly doubtful that humanity as a whole will opt for a ‘managed’ path and that Nature will have the final say in our fate.
Time, of course, will tell how this all unfolds.
Some of my personal Contemplations that discuss the above topics:
Collapse Cometh CXCV–‘Renewable’ Energy: See, Hear, and Speak No Evil, Part 1 (Website; Medium; Substack), Part 2 (Website; Medium; Substack), Part 3 (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CXCII–Sorry, folks, but ‘renewables’ are NOT going to save humanity or the planet (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CXCI–The Nexus of Population, Energy, Innovation, and Complexity. (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXXIII-Complexity and Sustainability (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXXII-Tech ‘Solutions’ Are Us (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXXI-The Politics of Dancing: The politicians are now dj’s… (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXXI–A ‘Solution’ to Our Predicaments: More Mass-Produced, Industrial Technologies (Website; Medium; Substack)
Collapse Cometh CLXV-Rackets: Keeping the Curtains on Reality Drawn (Website; Medium; Substack)
Summary Notes
Peak Oil, Economic Growth, and Wildlife Conservation
J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger, & B. Czech (editors)
Springer Science and Business Media (2014)
Chapter 15: Envisioning An Alternative Future (pp. 316-339)
J.E. Gates, D.L. Trauger, & B. Czech
The authors argue that the planetary limits to growth of human activity seems imminent as does the peaking of energy production and economic growth (that will impact human populations directly). On top of this, our hydrocarbon-based industrial civilisation has contributed to destabilising our planet’s climate and the loss of biodiversity and wildlife habitat
With our population continuing to grow due to demographic momentum, in spite of falling reproductive rates in most advanced economies, we must aim to reduce our material consumption within these advanced economies to help them move towards sustainability while those experiencing widespread poverty can pursue economic growth.
A Peak Oil recap is provided with the conclusion that humans have squandered their hydrocarbon reserves on all sorts of frivolous things. Oil has become indispensable and there is no other form of energy that can replace it. A mythology surrounding a new oil boom has arisen in the US but it saw its best energy reserves extracted more than 70 years ago.
Even if new reserves that are inexpensive can be discovered, it would be in the planet’ best interests to stop extracting and burning hydrocarbons since ”exponential growth of our fossil-fuel-driven economy is accelerating biodiversity loss, and potentially contributing to irreversible planetary state shifts” (p. 318)
Whether we can adapt to an elimination of hydrocarbons depends on a number of factors including the rate of decline and lifestyle changes. A number of substitutes and technologies have been proposed to aid our weaning from hydrocarbons but they cannot provide the energy density and the cost and scale necessary is extremely problematic..
While environmentalists have railed against coal and oil, they have failed to consider arguing against all forms of energy production due to the continuing environmental damage from alternatives. And politicians have embraced the ‘green’ bandwagon as a way of providing jobs and stimulating the economy (while many continue to also support hydrocarbons)–they appear more concerned about increasing energy production than what source it comes from, its costs, or the environmental impacts; their actions appear to be mostly about supporting economic growth and business as usual.
The ‘solutions’ that have been proposed to address the various hurdles are insufficient due to issues of scale and dependence upon non-renewables. In addition, the rollout of alternatives have been adding to our energy use and not resulting in a decline in hydrocarbon use.
“Many proponents of industrial-scale solar arrays and wind turbines also fail to acknowledge their detrimental impacts on wildlife species and massive alteration of wildlife habitats in many locations (southwestern deserts, forested mountain ridge-lines, prairie and sagebrush habitats); plus, these devices produce electricity, not liquid fuels that are needed” (p. 320)
Liquid fuel ‘solutions’ carry their own environmental destruction aspects, low EROEI, and have issues of scale. In fact, virtually all ’solutions’ to the predicament of Peak Oil appear to be the result of wishful thinking, delay tactics, and/or for appearance. Disentangling our societies (especially economies) from hydrocarbons is near impossible
-convincing society to pay much more for ‘renewables’ to help us is also near impossible. Hydrocarbons are likely to continue to play a role in the future despite all the negative repercussions as alternatives have not been adopted to the scale required and as a result any action in response to possible catastrophic ecosystem collapse or climate system chaos will be too late.
Peak Economic Growth and Interest On Debt
Economic Growth
All world economies are pursuing growth (usually gauged via Gross Domestic Product; based upon personal consumption, business investment, goods and services exports, and government spending). While GDP is criticised as a measure for a variety of reasons, it does seem to be a good indicator of biodiversity loss. Anathema to economic growth is a stable or declining population/workforce and/or per capita consumption. Regardless, there must exist a limit to economic growth since the materials and energy required are of finite supply, and these limits must be recognised and respected to avoid an extended contraction and/or collapse. Growth rates are not sustainable and current growth has led to a number of negative consequences (e.g., sink overloading, biodiversity loss).
Monetary System
Our credit-/debt-based monetary system is one aspect of our economic system. To maintain this system and GDP growth, new debt must grow faster than old debt (this also ensures that loan principal plus debt is paid off). A decline in the rate of growth of the energy required to sustain these systems is resulting in increasing debt defaults with wealth being transferred to the rich (currently in the US, the top 1% of wealth-holders claim 40% of the total wealth). Such inequality has negative impacts upon social stability and are also destroying our natural assets.
Peak Nature and Earth’s Biodiversity
Mass Extinctions
Based upon past species extinctions, many biologists believe we are experiencing another Mass Extinction and caused primarily by human activity. Current extinction rates are about 1000-10,000 times higher than typical rates.
Threats To Human Health and Well-Being
Extinctions are irreversible and can have profound consequences for humans. “[T]he loss of one keystone species on which numerous other species are dependent could cause a trophic cascade, resulting in the extinctions of numerous species and compromising the functioning of the entire ecosystem. Many species also provide critical ecosystem services, such as processing wastes and recycling nutrients, at no cost to us. Other species aid in the control of pest species in agriculture and forestry, reducing the use of insecticides and treatment costs to society.” (p. 325). Plant pollinators are one such keystone species.
Anthropogenic Causes Of the Sixth Mass Extinction
Most, if not all, human activity is contributing to the mass extinction occurring; for example: ecosystem destruction, overexploitation of resources, land system changes, population growth, agriculture, pollution, introduction of invasive species. Many of these activities stem from our pursuit of economic growth. “Our sheer numbers and activities have made us a force of nature that now threatens the functioning of our planet’s life-support system.” (p. 326)
Reconnecting With the Earth
Most ignore this relatively slowly unfolding tragedy given seemingly more-pressing problems. “Trying to reconcile the cognitive dissonance that occurs in our perceptions of the future, ranging from a utopian, technological paradise to something out of “Mad Max”, can cause much mental stress and discomfort.” (p. 327) It’s easier to believe that all these ‘problems’ will be solved and we can continue with our business-as-usual path.
Existence without hydrocarbons would be vastly different from today’s modern complex societies. Hydrocarbons have provided the energy to grow our industrial civilisation and the benefits of many ‘energy slaves’. Given these are finite, either we will choose to scale them back on our own terms or this will be forced upon us. It is likely that many/most will not support purposeful contraction of their use and our economies, and will tend to blame the usual suspects when this happens. Some will claim to have ‘solutions’ if given enough power, and/or technological ‘breakthroughs’ will be heralded as the answer to Peak Oil.
Moving Toward Sustainability
Any sustainability movement should attempt to address a number of issues (e.g., resource depletion, biodiversity loss, sink overloading, etc.) and biodiversity loss should be a prominent component given its importance but it has not been. Current population growth and consumption are not sustainable (i.e., being maintained without exhaustion of resources or resulting in ecological damage).
“[W]e need to adapt our entire civilization to withstand shocks and roll with the punches of Peak Oil, resource depletion, climate change, and biodiversity loss; in other words, we need to build resilience and redundancy into our human and natural systems to increase their viability, which up until now have been shaped entirely by growth in the human economy.” (pp. 328-329)
To help transition to a shrinking economy, localised self-sufficient communities should be developed with significant rethinking about the many complexities of modern society (e.g., manufacturing, banking, transportation, governance, etc.). A more sustainable economic system is needed and should be founded in ecological economics and aiming to reduce consumption. A more sustainable agricultural system is also required using methods that protect the environment, human health, and animal welfare–practices must protect biodiversity and foster healthy ecosystems first and foremost. Such systems require more intensive manual labour as they are less reliant upon hydrocarbons and their adoption would result in far more people being involved in food production
“However, meeting the needs of a growing population would require producing more food on the same amount of agricultural land—a daunting task without fossil-fuel energy, herbicides, pesticides, fertilizer, and hybrid and genetically engineered (GMO) crops!” (p. 330)
Human Impacts On Earth’s Biodiversity
Human activity impacts natural landscapes in a number of ways but especially edge effects that provide routes for invasive species and are created by such things as power transmission corridors, fencing, and roadways
-in many countries, roadways are the most pervasive form of fragmentation (in the US alone, there are over 6 million kilometres of mapped roads). The continuing proliferation of this particular activity is leading to increasing edge effect impacts, habitat isolation, and species extinction. While there is “little that can be done at this point in time to save pristine ecosystems and their biota…benign neglect by humans could make it even worse, speeding up extinction rates and causing ecosystems to collapse rather than degrade. Humans need functioning ecosystems to provide the ecological services on which our civilization depends for its continued existence.” (p. 332)
Managing the Biodiversity Crisis
There exist a number of operations actively attempting to address the biodiversity crisis but the challenge is beyond environmental; it is human attitudinal and trying to get people to understand the importance of functioning ecosystems and how they support human welfare. This need, however, is “often up against powerful, well-connected and ecologically illiterate developers and interest groups, who feel that their way is the only way, particularly if they can cloak their project around economic growth.” (p. 333) Past compromises to provide mitigation have failed with total protection now being the only viable option that must be communicated to decision-makers.
Human population growth and its associated consumption must be confronted. This is challenging at the best of times, but even more so as we experience energy and resource depletion, economic uncertainty, climate chaos, and social unrest.
Hope For the Future
The hope is to take the steps necessary to save biodiversity but so long as economic growth is pursued that is unlikely to occur. “We need to reassess our long-term vision for human civilization and decide what we must do now to move it toward a more sustainable future for the benefit of the planet and generations yet to come.” (p. 335)
Once we envision where we want to go, we can begin our work to get there. “We envisage a future society distinguished by a stable population and per capita consumption, a more equitable distribution of income and wealth, full recycling of materials, waste streams that the environment can easily absorb or reuse in productive ways, and use of alternative, non-fossil-fuel sources of energy. Populations will be much smaller and in dynamic balance with available resources. Improvements in infrastructure by governments will be made without consumption of fossil fuels or piling on more debt and interest on debt.” (p 335)
Achieving this may or may not be possible and a balance between consumption and the planet’s ability to regenerate resources will eventually occur, either by human choice or Nature’s rebalancing processes. We can do things better and that are ecologically healthier but must reign in the pursuit of wealth/status and develop resilient, sustainable systems. If we cannot do this, we will be confronted by collapse of our modern societies alongside the loss of large portions of our biodiversity.
The more detailed summary notes can be found here.
Recent articles of related interest:
Natural Ecosystems and Climate Stabilization
The Local System Builds Community, The Global System Destroys It
The Energy Transition That Isn’t
Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract
Zooplankton study reveals how rising temperatures could lead to population crashes
EROEI and Civilization’s Forced Decline
How many more species will we let disappear?
Butterfly population in US shrinking by 22% over last 20 years, study shows | US news | The Guardian
Drill Baby Drill, Imperial Trump and the Collapse of American Energy Dominance
Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit
The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens
Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times
Reality Check: Energy Transition
Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil
US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism
Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times
Why OPEC+ is Supporting a Potentially Disastrous Rise in Oil Production | OilPrice.com
The “Energy Transition” is a Pipe Dream | Jean-Baptiste Fressoz
Biodiversity loss in all species and every ecosystem linked to humans – report
What is going to be my standard WARNING/ADVICE going forward and that I have reiterated in various ways before this:
“Only time will tell how this all unfolds but there’s nothing wrong with preparing for the worst by ‘collapsing now to avoid the rush’ and pursuing self-sufficiency. By this I mean removing as many dependencies on the Matrix as is possible and making do, locally. And if one can do this without negative impacts upon our fragile ecosystems or do so while creating more resilient ecosystems, all the better.
Building community (maybe even just household) resilience to as high a level as possible seems prudent given the uncertainties of an unpredictable future. There’s no guarantee it will ensure ‘recovery’ after a significant societal stressor/shock but it should increase the probability of it and that, perhaps, is all we can ‘hope’ for from its pursuit.”
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
AND
Released September 30, 2024
It Bears Repeating: Best Of…Volume 2
A compilation of writers focused on the nexus of limits to growth, energy, and ecological overshoot.
With a Foreword by Erik Michaels and Afterword by Dr. Guy McPherson, authors include: Dr. Peter A Victor, George Tsakraklides, Charles Hugh Smith, Dr. Tony Povilitis, Jordan Perry, Matt Orsagh, Justin McAffee, Jack Lowe, The Honest Sorcerer, Fast Eddy, Will Falk, Dr. Ugo Bardi, and Steve Bull.
The document is not a guided narrative towards a singular or overarching message; except, perhaps, that we are in a predicament of our own making with a far more chaotic future ahead of us than most imagine–and most certainly than what mainstream media/politics would have us believe.
Click here to access the document as a PDF file, free to download.
March 26, 2025
The Bulletin: March 20-26, 2025
Threats to U.S. Security: Aging Infrastructure, Fragile Systems, and Information Warfare
The Planet Can’t Afford AI – by Kollibri terre Sonnenblume
The Market Will Crash – Here’s When
Here is how the government will force you to enlist in the army
Infrastructure is the collapse indicator no one is talking about
The “Energy Transition” is a Pipe Dream | Jean-Baptiste Fressoz
Health Prepping: Stop Poisoning Yourself, Part 1
Americans See the Risks but Still Do Nothing
The Nuclear War Plan for Iran – Ken Klippenstein
Major-power conflict ‘no longer unimaginable’, Australian intelligence review finds
Forests: The Impossible Mitigation Task – by Ugo Bardi
Trump Invokes Wartime Powers to Boost U.S. Critical Minerals Output | OilPrice.com
How NATO provoked Russia in Ukraine and prevented peace
The Eternal Present: The Good That’s Been Forgotten Has Been Lost
We are in the middle of a climate apocalypse. But do we really care? | The Indian Express
Andean Glaciers Threaten Million People
The Evolution of Modernity – resilience
How Decades Of Factory Farming Paved the Way For Today’s Superbugs Crisis
Is the AI juice worth the carbon squeeze?
The Nuclear Non-Solution – The Honest Sorcerer
The Mad Scramble for Power: Global Superpowers’ Strategies for Energy, Economics, and War
Hegseth Orders Additional Carrier To Middle East Amid Yemen Escalation | ZeroHedge
A Hidden Risk That Could Trigger Financial Collapse
Iran in the Crosshairs. Mike Whitney – Global Research
Ishmael Overview | Do the Math
How to Die by Living: A User’s Guide to Modern Collapse
Scientists identify ‘tipping point’ that caused clumps of toxic Florida seaweed
From deluges to drought: Climate change speeds up water cycle, triggers more extreme weather
Microplastics: a quick beginner’s guide | by The Medium Newsletter | Mar, 2025
Canada Pressures Social Media to Censor Election Content
America’s Self-Destruction Continues
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
March 19, 2025
The Bulletin: March 13-19, 2025
The Great Gas Pipeline Caper of 2025 – by Terry Cowan
BlackRock CEO Says American ‘Practicalism’ Can ‘Make Energy Great’ | The Epoch Times
Some Psychology for Responding To a World in Chaos
Can We Feed Ourselves Just out of Our Vegetable Gardens?
The Lost Art of Grieving: Grief as Ritual, Resistance, and Resilience
Welcome to the Era of Energy Realism – by Roger Pielke Jr.
We Have Even Less Time than We Thought to Get Ready for Collapse
Canada’s critical minerals and why Trump wants them
What about installing solar arrays on farms? Isn’t that a good use of land?
Acres of Amazon rainforest trees cut down to build road for climate summit
When Dissent Becomes a Crime: The War on Political Speech Begins – Global Research
Power and Control- The Vast Censorship Enterprise
The 2027 American War with Canada — A Soldier’s Perspective
The Ponzi Is Crumbling – by Lau Vegys
Mind-Boggling: Microplastics are Blotting Out Photosynthesis
The 7 Fundamental Drivers of Overshoot – by Nate Hagens
The twilight of American hegemony – Collapse Life
You’ve Got a Blackout in Pennsylvania | RealClearWire
Doug Casey on Fort Knox, Government Secrecy, and the True Role of Gold
9 Takeaways from the JP Morgan Chase Energy Study You Won’t Want to Miss
Many U.S. bird species seen as reaching population ‘tipping point’ – The Japan Times
Europe Faces Late-Winter Test to Its Energy System Resilience | OilPrice.com
The Global Reset: Energy, Geopolitics, and Market Upheaval | Art Berman
Throwing the Monkey Wrench Into the System
A Civilisation Built on Conflict and Supremacy – George Tsakraklides
Alexa’s Privacy Backtrack: Amazon Pushes All Voice Data to the Cloud
Degrowth: Sanity in Spiraling Chaos – by Geoffrey Deihl
Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over the Future of Oil
US wild bird populations continue steep decline | Climate & Capitalism
Jeff Currie’s “New Joule Order”—A Compelling but Flawed Energy Framework | Art Berman
The Ball Comes to Rest | Do the Math
Trump Says He’s Authorizing Use of Coal for Energy Production | The Epoch Times
Is 100 Years Of Cheap Food Coming To An End?
Shut Up About Trump, It’s Not Resistance
Trump Positions US Military For Imminent War With Iran
If you have arrived here and get something out of my writing, please consider ordering the trilogy of my ‘fictional’ novel series, Olduvai (PDF files; only $9.99 Canadian), via my website or the link below — the ‘profits’ of which help me to keep my internet presence alive and first book available in print (and is available via various online retailers).
Attempting a new payment system as I am contemplating shutting down my site in the future (given the ever-increasing costs to keep it running).
If you are interested in purchasing any of the 3 books individually or the trilogy, please try the link below indicating which book(s) you are purchasing.
Costs (Canadian dollars):
Book 1: $2.99
Book 2: $3.89
Book 3: $3.89
Trilogy: $9.99
Feel free to throw in a ‘tip’ on top of the base cost if you wish; perhaps by paying in U.S. dollars instead of Canadian. Every few cents/dollars helps…
https://paypal.me/olduvaitrilogy?country.x=CA&locale.x=en_US
If you do not hear from me within 48 hours or you are having trouble with the system, please email me: olduvaitrilogy@gmail.com.
You can also find a variety of resources, particularly my summary notes for a handful of texts, especially William Catton’s Overshoot and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies: see here.
