Steve Bull's Blog, page 39
May 9, 2024
You Need 2 Years of Food – Martin Armstrong
Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong has new data on how well the Biden economy is doing. Spoiler alert: It’s not doing well, and the financial system is about to tank. I asked Armstrong if the US government could default on its debt if countries around the world continue to stop buying it? Armstrong explained, “I think the US could default on its debt as early as 2025, but probably in 2027. We have kicked the can down the road as far as we can go. It’s not just in the United States. Europe is in the same boat. So is Japan. This is why they need war. They think by going into war, that’s the excuse to default on the debt. They simply will not pay China. If they try to sell their debt–good luck. We are not redeeming it. The same thing is happening in Europe. So, once that happens, you go into war, and that is their excuse on this whole debt thing to collapse, which wipes out pensions etc. Then they can blame Putin. This is the same thing Biden was doing before saying this was Putin’s inflation. Then, with the whole CBDC thing (central bank digital currency) . . . . the IMF has already completed its digital coin, and they want that to replace the dollar as the reserve currency for the world. . . . These people are desperately just trying to hang on to power. Nobody wants to give it up, and nobody wants to reform.”
I asked Armstrong what should the common person be doing now? Armstrong surprisingly said, “I think you need, safely, two years’ worth of food supply. . . .This is what I have. It’s not just prices will go up, but mainly because there will be shortages….
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Israel’s Battle Against Free Speech: The Shuttering of Al Jazeera
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“Politics,” as the harsh, albeit successful German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck claimed, “is the art of the possible, the attainable – the art of the next best.”
To that should be added the stark awareness of being prudent, gingerly wise, appropriately cautious. Mind how you go in avoiding any foolishness on the way.
Going after the motley press and news outlets while claiming to be a card-carrying member of the democracy club is far from prudent and more than a touch foolish, bound to make the critics croak and other fellow members decry. And this is exactly what has happened in the context of Israel’s decision to shut down the Qatar-backed station Al Jazeera.
On May 5, police raided the offices of the network at the Ambassador hotel in Jerusalem. According to Israeli Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi, equipment had been seized in the raid.
Al Jazeera duly released a statement strongly condemning and denouncing “this criminal act that violates human rights and the basic right to access of information.” The network went on to affirm “its right to continue to provide news and information to its global audiences.” Oddly enough, the ban is far from being a watertight one, as the channel remains accessible in Israel via Facebook.
Al Jazeera has had a troubled relationship with Israel. Sounding like paranoid family members who have imbibed a bit too much, accusations frothed from various politicians accusing the network of being a Hamas front. In a dubious honour, the network’s name became associated with a law passed by the Israeli Knesset on April 1.
The instrument authorises the Minister of Communication, with the consent of the Prime Minister and the Ministerial Committee on National Committee, to shut down foreign news outlets operating in Israel deemed a national security threat…
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Peter Schiff: Rate Hikes on the Horizon?
Peter’s back to recap the last week in markets and economic news. This episode starts with April’s dismal stock performance and also discusses Jerome Powell’s most recent appearance. Peter wraps up the episode by recounting the Bitcoin debate he participated in on Friday.
Peter notes that April’s losses in the stock market were in part created by doubt about the Fed’s future rate cuts:
“The reason for that was heightened talk not just about the Fed not cutting rates, but for the first time, I heard people discussing the possibility that the Fed might have to raise rates, that the next move may in fact be a hike and not a cut. Now that‘s the first time that I’ve heard any mainstream discussion of that possibility. … I’ve been saying that that is the correct policy. If the Fed really is data-dependent, and if the Fed really wants to fight inflation, based on the data, they should resume their hikes.”
Despite this possibility, markets are unduly optimistic. The Fed’s historical record is not very successful, even decades ago when America’s fiscal health was much better:
“The markets believe that the Fed is going to succeed. This is pure nonsense! I look back at the inflation statistics for the 40 years before the 2008 financial crisis— so 2008, 2007, going back to 1968, those 40 years— there were only 3 years where inflation was 2% or lower. The average inflation rate over those 40 years was 4.8%. … If the Fed wasn’t able to come close to 2% during those 40 years, why does anybody think it’s going to come anywhere near it over the next 30 years?”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell still refuses to criticize federal fiscal policy, despite the apparent need for rate hikes:
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West Fueling Global Conflicts, Trying To Topple Moscow, Putin Says On WW2 Victory Day
As fully expected, Russian President Vladimir Putin struck a defiant tone in his speech at Moscow’s Red Square for the annual events commemorating Russia’s WW2 victory. Addressing thousands of soldiers in ceremonial attire, Putin accused the “arrogant” West of stoking conflict around the world.
“We know what the exorbitance of such ambitions leads to. Russia will do everything to prevent a global clash,” he said. “But at the same time, we will not allow anyone to threaten us. Our strategic forces are always in a state of combat readiness,” he stressed in reference to the country’s nuclear forces.
Via APThe 71-year-old leader hailed that “Victory Day unites all generations,” and vowed: “We are going forward relying on our centuries-old traditions and feel confident that together we will ensure a free and secure future of Russia.”
He called Victory Day “very emotional and poignant” as “Every family is honoring its heroes, looking at pictures with dear faces and remembering their relatives and how they fought.”
He contrasted the “heroes” – Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, with the West – which is “fueling regional conflicts, inter-ethnic and inter-religious strife and trying to contain sovereign and independent centers of global development.”
Present for the ceremony was nearly 10,000 Russian troops, including 1,000 who have fought inside Ukraine. According to AP correspondents, Putin underscored his ‘nuclear deterrent’ messaging by having nuke-capable missiles present:
Nuclear-capable Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles were pulled across Red Square, underscoring his message.
The Soviet Union lost about 27 million people in World War II, an estimate that many historians consider conservative, scarring virtually every family.
One theme which emerged from Putin’s speech is that the West has ignored and forgotten the immense sacrifice that Russians made in defeating the Nazis in WW2.
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May 8, 2024
Turkiye Suspends All Trade With Israel in Surprise New Blow; Israel Threatens Retaliation
Last night, Bloomberg broke the story that Turkiye has suspended all trade with Israel. The Bloomberg account noted that Turkiye had announced the day before that it was joining South Africa in its genocide case against Israel.
A later Financial Times story provides official confirmation after Bloomberg cited “two high official” providing the scoop. From the Financial Times:
Turkey has halted trade with Israel as it again accused the country of stoking a “humanitarian disaster” in Gaza, marking the latest sign of deepening tensions between the two nations.
Ankara’s trade ministry late on Thursday said all export and import transactions related to Israel had been stopped and would not resume until the Jewish state “allows an uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza”.
Ankara in April sanctioned exports in 54 important categories of goods but this latest move will disrupt bilateral trade worth more than $7bn a year. A
Even though Turkiye is depicting the move as temporary, it is conditioning the reversal on Israel allowing adequate humanitarian aid into Gaza, which no way, no how is going to happen. Israel has escalated from sniping Gazans running to get food and supplies from aid deliveries to leaving food-can-like explosives about that go boom on the attempt to open them:
Interestingly, this development is getting varying play in the media. It’s now the lead story at the BBC, but below the fold at the Financial Times and nowhere to be found at the Wall Street Journal. The Financial Times and the Twitterverse speculate that this move is due to Erdogan’s party having performed markedly worse in March elections than expected, and his inaction on Gaza was a big reason why…
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Republic First seizure signals more bank failures to come, expert warns
Fears of contagion reignited by first US bank failure of 2024
Feds’ rate cut promise caused banks to drastically mismark books: McDonald
The Bear Traps Report founder Larry McDonald says the New York Community Bank collapse speaks to a greater economic problem on “Making Money.”
Republic First Bank, a regional lender based out of Philadelphia, became the first bank failure of 2024 on Friday when it was shut down by Pennsylvania’s bank regulator and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) seized control of the operation.
The FDIC quickly made a deal for Fulton Bank to buy Republic First’s assets, but one expert on financial regulatory reform and bank failures says the collapse could be a harbinger of things to come.
“This bank failure indicates that additional failures will occur and will range between smaller community banks and larger banks,” said Joseph Lynyak, a banking attorney at Dorsey & Whitney, regarding the seizure of Republic First by U.S. regulators.
TickerSecurityLastChangeChange %FULTFULTON FINANCIAL CORP.17.23 0.17 1.03%Fulton Financial Corp.
“The cause is twofold: higher-cost deposits exceeding the yield on low-yield treasury securities and similar investments held by banks, and the deteriorating commercial real estate market and commercial real estate loans,” said Lynyak, who specializes in bank receiverships and failures.
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FORECLOSURES JUMPED 117% IN MARCH AS TROUBLE LOOMS
Regional banks have been struggling to retain deposits as customers seek the safety of larger “too-big-to-fail” rivals, and higher interest rates have diminished the value of their loan books due to increased unrealized losses and lower commercial real estate values.
A worker tells people that Silicon Valley Bank’s headquarters in Santa Clara, California, is closed on March 10, 2023. The bank was shut down by California regulators and put in control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)
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“Economics Works In Mysterious Ways”: Is China’s Wealth Effect Being Substituted?
Summary
China’s real estate market suffered heavy losses early this year while stock market investors continue to face huge uncertainty.This will add to the deterioration of household balances and as such could influence private domestic (consumer) demand.While the wealth effect predicts a deterioration of consumption, the substitution effect would predict the exact opposite.This paper concludes that the substitution effect is more likely in the case of real estate.This could be explained by the fact that housing is still expensive despite declining housing prices while at the same time wages are suppressed and youth unemployment is high.But more explanations (like prepayment risks) could be given for the positive correlation between housing prices and the savings ratio.Introduction
The new year in China kicked off with turmoil on China’s stock markets. Amongst others, the decision of the court in Hong Kong to liquidate real estate giant Evergrande further undermined investors’ confidence in China’s stock market. A market that already had been battered during the last three years due to ongoing worries about China’s economic prospects, regulatory crackdowns, a changing geopolitical landscape and a real estate sector in crisis. While China’s stock markets have pared some of the most recent losses due to (expectations of) increased government support, investor sentiment will likely remain fragile for some time to come. Moreover, many of the recently imposed government regulations, such as short selling curbs, are likely to be temporary assuming China is really serious about attracting more foreign investments. This follows from the fact that a full functioning market environment includes the possibility to sell stocks short and let market forces determine market outcomes.
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Sacrifice Zones
As our problems mount, more of Earth’s people will be seen as disposable.
Source: Encorenature.org
A “sacrifice zone” refers to when one community’s health is sacrificed for the sake of another, often for profit or maintaining a way of life in that more fortunate community. A sacrifice zone is often a community living in proximity to pollutants, contaminated water, or some other manmade hazard. People in these communities are often poor and seen as disposable or a “cost of doing business” by those who benefit from the situation.
One clear example is Cancer Alley in the state of Louisiana, in the United States. This area of Louisiana stretches between New Orleans and Baton Rouge, has a high concentration of petrochemical plants, and as a result, boasts cancer rates 50 times higher than the national average. For those of us enjoying the plastics, chemicals, and gasoline that come from this region, we are indirectly supporting this sacrifice zone.
There are plenty of sacrifice zones around the world that we tolerate because they make our lives more convenient.
Quintero and Puchuncavi in Chile are home to the Ventanas industrial complex that includes oil refineries, petrochemical plants, coal-fired power plants, gas terminals, and a copper smelter. David Boyd, the United Nations (UN) envoy for human rights and the environment, warned that Chile is facing a “frightening and interconnected environmental crisis” that is violating the rights of millions of people at the industrial complex known as the “Chilean Chernobyl.” People from the area suffer from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases at a disproportionate rate. Infant mortality and cancer rights are also much higher than average
Kabwe, Zambia: The lead and zinc mine at Kabwe closed in 1994 after operating for nearly 100 years. The site is still negatively impacting the population. Lead poisoning has damaged the internal organs and brains of the children who live there.
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Al Jazeera’s Israeli HQ Raided By Police After Netanyahu Called It “Hamas Mouthpiece”
On Sunday the offices of Al Jazeera in Jerusalem were raided by Israeli police, after the Knesset voted unanimously voted to ban the Qatar-based news network.
The Israeli order effectively shuts down all Al Jazeera broadcasts in Israel and the West Bank. To implement the ban, authorities confiscated equipment at the channel’s Jerusalem HQ inside the Ambassador Hotel.
Additionally Israel will block Al Jazeera’s website after PM Netanyahu alleged that it is a “Hamas mouthpiece.” He has further claimed that the outlet’s coverage of Gaza has put Israeli troops in danger.
“Al Jazeera reporters harmed Israel’s security and incited against soldiers,” Netanyahu said previously. He has for weeks been mounting a public campaign against it.
Al Jazeera has responded by calling the claim a “dangerous and ridiculous lie” and further said “pursue every legal step” to fight being shut down by Israel.Interestingly, last year the Biden administration also began complaining about the channel’s coverage, with an October Axios report saying that Secretary of State Antony Blinken requested that the Qataris “turn down the volume on Al Jazeera’s coverage because it is full of anti-Israel incitement.”
The outlet has said in a statement, “Israel’s ongoing suppression of the free press, seen as an effort to conceal its actions in the Gaza Strip, stands in contravention of international and humanitarian law.”
According to a review by Axios:
Israel’s legislative body, the Knesset, passed a measure last month that empowers Israel’s communications minister to take action against any foreign media network that it can prove poses a national security risk.
The law gives senior government officials power to temporarily shutter foreign news networks on national security grounds for at least 45 days, but that period can be extended.
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Flashback: When Newt Gingrich Demanded Internet Censorship For Terror War
The neocon faction of the permanent ruling class, which permeates both parties, is eternally dangerous and must be perpetually kept in check, if not purged entirely.
The year was 2006, in the middle of a decade that cemented my hate for the state, probably forever.
The terror induced by government’s War of Terror propaganda was at its apex.
Jingoistic “Freedom Fries” were on offer at various patriotic establishment because “French fries” were faggy and soft.
The neocons had their guy, literally minus a beating heart, Dick Cheney, strategically placed as the real president, playing his moronic nominal boss like a fiddle.
The PATRIOT Act was in full effect and American civil liberties had never been more broken — although they would be in subsequent years.
And one Newt Gingrich, the viscerally repulsive, bloated embodiment of the rot in the overfed GOP establishment, wanted to censor the internet… because ‘Merica.
It went without saying at the time that, if you oppose state control of the web, you support terrorism.
In order to defend America, once must undermine all of the fundamental founding principles that made it great in the first place.
Via Politico (emphasis added):
“Back in 2006, Gingrich argued censoring the Internet would be the right thing to do when it comes to Islamic radicals who use the web to organize jihad against the U.S.
‘We need to get ahead of the curve rather than wait until we actually literally lose a city, which I think could literally happen in the next decade if we’re unfortunate,’ Mr. Gingrich said during a speech in New Hampshire, according to a story I wrote at the time for The New York Sun. ‘We now should be impaneling people to look seriously at a level of supervision that we would never dream of if it weren’t for the scale of the threat.’…
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