Steve Bull's Blog, page 34
May 17, 2024
Small-scale farmers in Ethiopia: First came conflict, then devastating drought
Kalayu and other farmers can now harvest up to four times a year, instead of relying only on rain and harvesting only once a year. All photos: Sarah Easter/CARE
Kalayu, 70, was once a self-sufficient farmer, but “last season,” he says, “there was no harvest at all. We did not have any rain.”
Kalayu is from Tigray, Ethiopia, where 95 percent of potentially irrigable land in Ethiopia depends on rainfall. It is also where a two-year-long conflict ended only in November 2022, affecting an estimated seven million people. The conflict led to numerous casualties, mass displacements, food insecurity, and damage to infrastructure.
“First came the conflict, then the drought,” he says. “The conflict took all my resources. All my goats and sheep were lost. They were the source of our happiness and immediate income. We relied on their milk for nutrition.”
The shortage of rainfall has severely affected overall agricultural production, and surface and groundwater resources across the country. In Tigray, out of 1.3 million hectares of cultivable land, only half was planted due to drought where only 37 percent was harvested during the main season.
Nearly 1.4 million people in Tigray need immediate emergency food because of the drought.
“We usually sow between May and June, then the rain starts in June and stays until September. We harvest in October and November. But not last year,” Kalayu says.
June to September is the primary rainy season which accounts for 50 to 80 percent of the annual rainfall. The severe rainfall shortage in Tigray has put the region’s predominantly agricultural population in a precarious situation. Approximately 80 percent of Tigray’s residents are farmers who rely on consistent rainfall and favorable growing conditions to produce the food they need to sustain themselves and their communities.
Water is a major crisis across Tigray, a predominantly arid region.…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Mike Walden: Is it ‘greedflation’ or something more keeping prices high?
Photo by Adam Nir on Unsplash
Although the pace at which prices are rising has moderated, prices are still going up. In 2021, average consumer prices surged 7%; in 2022 they jumped 6.5%; in 2023 prices went up a more tolerable 3.4%, and the latest reading for 2024 shows consumer prices are up 3.5% from the same period in 2023. Cumulatively this puts prices up over 20% since 2021.
As long as consumers’ financial resources increase at the same or a higher rate than price inflation, then there’s no loss of purchasing power. But most people know this hasn’t happened. Indeed, from 2021 to now, the average consumer’s purchasing power is off by 5%.
I mention these statistics to show that inflation is still a problem, which is something most people know. The next question is, why is inflation still a continuing issue?
When inflation began its spurt in 2021 there was an easy-to-understand reason – consumers were trying to buy more than sellers had to offer. Consumers were flush with cash as a result of the COIVD-19 relief programs enacted in both 2020 and 2021. These programs culminated in $6.5 trillion being rapidly pushed into the economy. Initially there were few buying opportunities as large parts of the economy had not yet reopened.
When consumers were able to buy, they had what economists call “pent-up demand,” meaning they wanted to buy a lot! Typically this wouldn’t have been a problem, but there was another issue that had emerged – supply-chain problems. So, in short, consumers wanted to really buy, but many of the shelves were bare. In this situation, it was inevitable prices would rise substantially, which they did.
But today, consumers have spent most of the COVID money, and the supply-chain has mostly been fixed. Yet inflation is running hotter than the 1.8% in 2019, before the pandemic….
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The JFK Assassination Chokeholds That Inescapably Prove There Was a Conspiracy
A Book Review
During my many years of teaching at different universities, nearly all my colleagues insisted that Lee Harvey Oswald alone assassinated President Kennedy, even while the general public questioned such a conclusion. This disparity between gown and town always amused and informed me that something in the “higher education” world was low indeed. Despite the fact that we agreed on many political matters, my academic colleagues laughed at all my writing and courses that presented overwhelming evidence that there was a conspiracy to kill JFK, led by the Central Intelligence Agency. They reveled in their certitude, good humored as it was, but refused to research the matter. They were smug.
Here is an excellent book that, if they would read it with open minds, would, as its subtitle says – inescapably prove that there was a conspiracy – and if Jack Ruby had not killed Oswald and he had been given a fair trial, Oswald would have been acquitted. Written by James DiEugenio, Paul Bleau, Matt Crumpton, Andrew Iler, and Mark Adamczyk, The JFK Assassination Chokeholds lives up to its claim and then some.
For most readers of the general public, the amount of information it contains that proves the official version of the assassination is clearly false may be overwhelming, but for anyone with any scholarly pretensions or who has a particular interest in the JFK assassination, this book is essential. It will last a long time as a key historical document. For the general reader, one or two chapters should suffice to convince them that the authors have emphatically proven their points…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Future Gas Strategy is a betrayal of promised Climate and Environmental Policies
Climate scientists reveal data that earth’s heating is accelerating, heat extremes are increasing and 1.5C has been breached faster than forecast. We are failing to treat climate change as the single greatest threat to humanity.At the same time our government has announced a gas strategy which increases emissions and the earth’s heating. Either we have misjudged the ability of government to understand climate change or they have been conned or captured by gas industries.
The danger is now so great that a majority of national initiatives must be directed to climate change. Yet ominously the Treasurer has been dancing under the falling leaves of deciduous trees muttering about economic and population growth which are already the shibboleths of failed climate and environmental policy.
The global average heating over February 2023 to January 2024 — exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) because governments have succumbed to a delusional policy-making narrative that warming to 1.5–2°C was still possible while continuing emissions to 2050.
One study consulted almost 400 senior authors from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Almost 80% expected a temperature rise of at least 2.5C above pre-industrial levels, unliveable temperatures for most of the world while only 6% thought it would stay within the 1.5C limit.
Data for extreme heat in Northern Australia presented by former Australian Defence Force chief Admiral Chris Barrie suggests that human life will be unviable in many areas of NT where defence bases are sited.
Such climate data are not included in the ADF’s security statement. Admiral Barrie and his team of security experts state that the federal government either doesn’t understand or is hiding from the public the risk of climate change to national security. They say mass migration, food insecurity and other climate risks must be addressed by government and the ADF.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Will sucking carbon from air ever really help tackle climate change?
The direct air capture industry got a boost last week with the opening of Mammoth, the largest plant yet for sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, but questions remain about whether the technology can scale up.
Humanity has spent the past few centuries releasing ever greater amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – a state of affairs that must be reversed if we are to get to grips with climate change. Removing such CO2 in a process called direct air capture (DAC) has been on the cards for some time, but finally, after years of research and small-scale pilot projects, giant carbon-sucking facilities are becoming a reality. The question is, will the industry grow large enough, fast enough?
The Mammoth direct air capture plant in Iceland is the largest in the worldClimeworks
DAC got a big boost last week when Swiss company Climeworks switched on a new plant called Mammoth. This can extract up to 36,000 tonnes of CO2 a year from the atmosphere – living up to its name, at least when compared with its predecessor Orca, which boasted a maximum capture capacity of just 4000 tonnes per year.
The new plant instantly quadrupled global capacity for DAC and is a sign of a step change under way in the industry. Mammoth will only hold the title of world’s largest DAC plant until next year, when the Stratos plant, built by a subsidiary of energy firm Occidental Petroleum using technology from Canadian DAC company Carbon Engineering, comes online. It will be able to extract half a million tonnes of CO2 a year.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Great Ukraine Robbery Is Not Over Yet. Ron Paul
The ink was barely dry on President Biden’s signature transferring another $61 billion to the black hole called Ukraine, when the mainstream media broke the news that this was not the parting shot in a failed US policy. The elites have no intention of shutting down this gravy train, which transports wealth from the middle and working class to the wealthy and connected class.
Reuters wrote right after the aid bill was passed that, “Ukraine’s $61 billion lifeline is not enough.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell went on the Sunday shows after the bill was passed to say that $61 billion is “not a whole lot of money for us…” Well, that’s easy for him to say – after all it’s always easier to spend someone else’s money!
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, was far from grateful for the $170 billion we have shipped thus far to his country. In an interview with Foreign Policy magazine as the aid package was passed, Kuleba had the nerve to criticize the US for not producing weapons fast enough.
“If you cannot produce enough interceptors to help Ukraine win the war against the country that wants to destroy the world order, then how are you going to win in the war against perhaps an enemy who is stronger than Russia?”
How’s that for a “thank you”?
It may be understandable why the Ukrainians are frustrated. Most of this money is not going to help them fight Russia. US military aid to Ukraine has left our own stockpiles of weapons depleted, so the money is going to create new production lines to replace weapons already sent to Ukraine. It’s all about the US weapons industry. President Biden admitted as much when he said, “we are helping Ukraine while at the same time investing in our own industrial base.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
May 16, 2024
Fear, anxiety as thousands flee their homes in Fort McMurray due to threat of wildfire
Evacuees directed to Cold Lake, Edmonton for accommodation
A highway camera photo shows traffic in Fort McMurray jammed in the southbound lane of Highway 63 on the north side of the Athabasca River. The image was captured at 3:11 p.m. MT Tuesday, about an hour after an evacuation order was issued for four neighbourhoods. (511 Alberta)Thousands of Fort McMurray residents headed south to safety as a large out-of-control wildfire drew closer to their community, but many are worried they won’t have a home to return to.
An evacuation order was issued Tuesday afternoon for the neighbourhoods of Beacon Hill, Abasand, Prairie Creek and Grayling Terrace, as the wildfire southwest of the community continues to grow.
Other areas in Fort McMurray remain on evacuation alert and residents need to be ready to leave on short notice.
Marina Barnes has lived in Fort McMurray for four years and evacuated from her home in Abasand Tuesday.
“I think the worst part right now is the unknown,” Barnes told CBC as she and a friend evacuated to Lac La Biche in the evening.
“Not knowing if we’re going to have a home to go back to.”
The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo had told residents to head to an evacuation centre in Lac La Biche, but around 7 p.m., the municipality posted on social media that accommodation in Lac La Biche was full and directed evacuees to Cold Lake, about 147 kilometres to a new evacuation centre at the Agriplex.
The City of Edmonton is also accepting evacuees at a reception centre located in the Clareview Community Recreation Centre at 3804 139th Ave.
As of Tuesday night, the wildfire threatening the community has covered nearly 21,000 hectares as shifting winds and rising temperatures continue accelerating its growth and pushing the flames closer to the community.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
India set to face hotter heatwaves amid preparation gaps, says study
The study advocates for the expansion of mandatory regulations alongside existing action plans to tackle the challenges posed by climate change
Photo: BloombergAs summer arrives, India braces for the onslaught of heatwaves, despite having substantial heat action plans in place. A recent study by the World Weather Attribution group reveals significant gaps in preparedness, including underfunded plans, inadequate consideration of local contexts, insufficient targeting of vulnerable groups, and a lack of periodic evaluations.The incidents of extreme temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in April, which affected billions of people across Asia, were intensified and made more probable by human-induced climate change, according to the rapid attribution analysis by an international team of leading climate scientists from the World Weather Attribution group.“From Gaza to Delhi to Manila, people suffered and died when April temperatures soared in Asia,” said Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute-Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London. “If humans continue to burn fossil fuels, the climate will continue to warm, and vulnerable people will continue to die,” Otto further said.The study advocates for the expansion of mandatory regulations alongside existing action plans to tackle the challenges posed by climate change.“Some countries, such as India, have comprehensive heat action plans in place. Yet, to protect some of the most vulnerable people, these must be expanded with mandatory regulations. Workplace interventions for all workers to address heat stress, such as scheduled rest breaks, fixed work hours, and rest-shade-rehydrate programs (RSH), are necessary but have yet to become part of worker protection guidelines in the affected regions,” it stated.…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Electric Vehicle Subsidies as Complex and Costly as Ever
Electric vehicles (EVs) may be the most subsidized product in America. Federal taxpayers shell out $7,500 every time a new eligible electric vehicle is purchased (usually by wealthy buyers). State and local taxpayers chip in an additional $1,500 for each EV purchase. Then, there’s the tens of billions of dollars “invested” by policymakers into building EV plants. Even these bank-breaking concessions aren’t enough to please the Biden administration. Recently finalized EV tax credit rules expand eligibility for the subsidy while maintaining bizarre trade sourcing rules likely to lead to further tariffs from China. It’s time for President Biden and lawmakers to ditch protectionism and finally end EV subsidies.
From the start, President Biden’s fumbling approach to EV subsidies has harmed the economy without bolstering ecology. In 2022, the chief executive declared, “[t]hanks to American ingenuity, American engineers, American autoworkers… if you want an electric vehicle with a long range, you can buy one made in America.” Prices were already through the roof, with taxpayers being asked to shoulder these pricy purchases. Kelley Blue Book estimates that the average price of a new EV is more than $65,000, compared to $48,000 for gas-powered cars. Biden imposed requirements that EVs must undergo “final assembly in North America,” contributing to even higher prices for taxpayers and consumers.
Biden’s rules make production cost-prohibitive by restricting the foreign mineral inputs (e.g., graphite) that could go into tax credit-eligible EVs. The administration has since reversed course and allowed for a grace period for graphite sourcing. However, the new rules, “introduce a stricter test for measuring whether 50% of the vehicle’s critical minerals come from the United States or a free trade agreement partner…[requiring] automakers to more precisely account for the value added at each step of the supply chain.”…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Producer Price Inflation Has Bottomed and Is Now Heading Back Up
Producer prices were a bit higher than expected today but negative revisions take that away. Importantly, prices appear to have bottomed.
Producer Price Index data from the BLS, chart by MishThe BLS reports the month-over-month PPI for April was 0.5 percent vs the Bloomberg Econoday consensus o 0.3 percent.
However, the BLS revised March from +0.2 to -0.1 so the year-over-year Econoday expectation was right on the mark at 2.2 percent.
PPI Details
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.5 percent in April.Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in March and advanced 0.6 percent in February.On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest increase since rising 2.3 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.Nearly three-quarters of the April advance in final demand prices is attributable to a 0.6-percent increase in the index for final demand services.Prices for final demand goods moved up 0.4 percent. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.4 percent in April after rising 0.2 percent in March.For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 3.1 percent, the largest advance since climbing 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended April 2023.Spotlight Services
Services have a bigger weight in the overall PPI than goods and they are rising steeper. Goods are influenced heavily by food and energy, both quite volatile.
PPI Final Demand Year-Over-Year Four Ways
PPI Year-Over-Year Details
Final Demand: 2.2%Final Demand Goods: 1.3%Final Demand Services: 2.7%Final Demand Food: 0.5%Final Demand Less Food and Energy: 2.4%For now, food is holding down the PPI. How much longer that remains is unknowable. But the key takeaway is the strength in services. If that filters through to the CPI, the Fed will have some difficulty unless rents turn lower.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
