Steve Bull's Blog, page 202
August 10, 2022
Germany’s Industrial Heartland Faces Crisis As Rhine River May Become Impassable By Friday
Water levels on the Rhine River are nearing dangerously low levels, and new forecasts expect Europe’s most critical waterway for inland commodity shipments via barges could be impassable by the end of the week.
The river at Kaub, Germany, is 47 centimeters (18.5 inches) on Wednesday and is expected to drop to the critical depth of 40 centimeters (15.7 inches) by Friday, according to the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration. There is even the possibility water levels could fall as low as 37 centimeters (14.5 inches) during the weekend.
Below 40 centimeters would mean barges at the key transit point in Germany would no longer be able to pass and restrict shipments of energy products and other commodities along Europe’s most crucial waterway amid the worst energy shortage in decades.
In the next couple of days, if forecasts are correct, Germany’s industrial heartland may risk a repeat of the disruption seen during the river’s historical low in 2018. Rhine River becoming impassible would certainly exacerbate Europe’s ongoing energy crisis.
The Rhine snakes about 800 miles (1,300 kilometers) from the Swiss Alps through Europe’s largest industrial areas and has already dented cargo shipments for chemicals giant BASF SE, steelmaker ThyssenKrupp AG, and utility Uniper SE. Bloomberg lists the most exposed companies to low Rhine River levels:
Uniper warned low water levels have reduced barge coal shipments to a major power plant. The utility said its 510-megawatt Staudinger-5 coal-fired power plant had seen fewer and fewer barge shipments of coal due to dwindling low water levels that could soon result in “irregular operation.”
Bloomberg outlines the most transported goods on the waterway. If water levels fall below 40 centimeters, companies must use rail and trucking for transportation.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
August 9, 2022
Phase Shift — Part 1
Loosing polar ice, the Amazon and the fight against a coming recession
Image credit: Pawel Czerwinski via UnsplashNews stories and popular narratives on recent — and not so recent — events like how the economy got broke or why inflation is soaring focus too much on human decisions. As if ‘choices’ leading up to these events were made in a completely rational manner, and as if what would happen tomorrow were completely up to the people making the next round of decisions.
Pundits and politicians tend to refer to events in the age-old framing of good vs evil, people doing the right, or in case of evil folks, foolish things (1). This leads us to the widespread illusion, that all we have to do in case of trouble is to get rid of the wrong people and start doing things the right way (which is always ‘our way’ of course).
It is needless to say how much of a hubris this is. Human exceptionalism at its best. The world, classically understood through the concepts of money, politics and history — all human artifacts — is by definition human centered and thus miss a large swathe of the picture. Stories based on these human concepts naturally focus on the actor and not the scene the actor is playing its role. Just like stories of heroes and kings of old.
Our elites, trained in law schools, history classes and courses on neoclassical economics, however, cannot even think outside this rather narrow framing. Thing is, they do not even need to. Spinning stories masterfully built around money, politics, history and law is more than enough to launch people into power — but it fails exceptionally in driving us through the coming bottleneck.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
August 8, 2022
Steve Keen: “Mythonomics”
On this episode, we meet with Economist, Author, and Research Fellow at the Institute for Strategy, Resilience, and Security at University College in London, Steve Keen.
Keen discusses how mainstream economics misses the centrality of energy to our economy and to our futures, the naive treatment to the risks of money and debt creation, and the disconnect economic theory has to climate change risks.
About Steve Keen:Steve Keen is an economist, author of Debunking Economics and The New Economics: A Manifesto, a Research Fellow at the Institute for Strategy, Resilience, and Security at University College in London.
Show Notes & Links to Learn More03:30 – Frank Stilwell
03:50 – Theory of the Second Best
05:17 – Paul Samuelson and paper (1966)
07:30 – Neoclassical economics
07:40 – Alfred Marshall
09:45 – Basic assumptions of economics
09:30 – Contemporary macroeconomics is applied microeconomics
11:12 – We are deeply social creatures, and this isn’t accounted for in economics
11:40 – Theory of supply (rising marginal costs)
12:15 – In reality, supply has a falling marginal cost (pg 102)
12:35 – Alan Blinder + survey on marginal falling costs (pg 22) and vs his textbook
18:30 – Energy is not included as an input (factor of production)
18:44 – Computable general equilibrium models
19:02 – Rational Expectation Revolution
19:20 – Intertemporal equilibrium models
19:21 – Cobb-Douglas Function
19:24 – Constant elasticity of production function
20:26 – When energy is included it is to a very minimized extent
20:41 – Working paper by Rudy Backmann looking at energy fall implications in Germany
21:57 – Change in energy and change in GDP is 1:1 (or .99)
22:11 – Reiner Kümmel and paper factoring energy into CD Production Function
23:10 – CO2 at 420 ppm
23:48 – Energy consumption/output in roman slaves (pg 558)
24:44 – A barrel of oil is equivalent to 5 years of human labor (Section 4.3)
25:59 – Adam Smith
26:03 – Physiocrats
26:59 – Evolution of Labor Theory of Value
28:40 – Robert Solow
29:30 – The assumption is that technology is responsible for our massive growth
30:12 – Bob Ayres
31:10 – James Watt – Steam Engine
31:00 – Energy is the true driver of growth, not technology
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
August 7, 2022
A Winter of Anger
Vincent van Gogh Beach at Scheveningen in Stormy Weather 1882
It is very simple: if you’d ask most citizens of whichever EU country if they are willing to risk being unable to feed and heat their children in order to support Ukraine and Zelensky, they would say NO. Hell no! But that is what they’re all being pushed towards. Food prices look to at least double from here, after they’ve doubled once already, while energy prices are set to triple or worse. And there’s no logical reason for it.This is not due to some inevitable market mechanism, it’s because the west decided to halt all Russian imports after the latter’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine. All western leaders found that reason enough to cut all, or nearly all, imports from Russia. Gas, oil, fertilizer, food. Essentials. They could have been sitting around a negotiating table, but chose not to. Which only works as long as things remain sort of affordable. And then, it does not.Problem is, they had and have no alternative to the Russian supplies of these goods (and there’s many more). See, this is how we know they don’t make their own decisions. Those are made in Brussels and Davos, and then the “leaders” have to carry out the preconceived programs, and they will.
No elected official on his/her own would risk to destroy their own country’s energy or food safety, with elections coming up every few years. But their WEF/Davos connections have changed that “logic”. The WEF makes sure no western leader gets elected who is not a member of their club. There’s only one path to power these days.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“Revolution Has Begun”: 75,000 Brits To Stop Paying Power Bills Amid Inflation Storm
The resistance is growing as more than 75,000 irritated people in the UK have pledged not to pay their electricity bill this fall when prices jump again.
“75,000 people have pledged to strike on October 1st! If the government & energy companies refuse to act then ordinary people will! Together we can enforce a fair price and affordable energy for all,” tweeted “Don’t Pay UK,” an anonymous group spearheading the effort to have more than one million Brits boycott paying their power bill by Oct. 1.
The strike comes as an inflation storm of high energy prices has obliterated household incomes. Brits are the most miserable in three decades as inflation is expected to hit 13%. And while Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey hiked interest rates the most in 27 years to tame inflation, risks are mounting of a recession.
On Oct. 1, the average household will pay almost £300 a month for power, the BoE warned. Couple surging power costs with negative real wage growth, and it becomes apparent households are being squeezed. This excludes soaring prices for shelter, food, and petrol at the pump — this trend is unsustainable and could result in social instabilities.
British news outlet Glasgow Live said the strike is similar to the “action in the late 1980s and ’90s to fight against the poll tax brought in by PM Margaret Thatcher. In protest, 17 million people refused to pay.”
UK financial journalist and broadcaster Martin Lewis said this about the strike:
“I think I can categorise it more accurately now, the big movement that I am seeing is an increase of growth in people calling for a non-payment of energy bills, mass non-payment. Effectively a consumer strike on energy bills and getting rid of the legitimacy of paying that.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Rather Than Focus on What You Don’t Control (“The News”), Focus on What You Do Control: What You Grow, Eat and Own
Now that globalization and financialization are finally unraveling, people are slowly awakening to the national security foundations of localizing production.
What exactly is “the news” other than an inducement to passivity, despair and derangement? Since we exert zero control over what happens in distant lands and global economies, why waste time passively consuming “if it bleeds it leads” offal designed to addict us to a steady stream of despair and derangement?
Why not ditch “the news” in favor of focusing on what we do control: what we grow, eat and own? It’s almost a binary choice: either focus on screens of addictive offal for hours every day or act on our own behalf in the real world.
Food inflation is highlighting the financial value of home gardens. Paul of the Silver Doctors and I discuss turning gardening savings into more ownership of something we control (for example, precious metals) in Save Money On Food, Get Free Gold & Silver, Beat Price Inflation (1:08 hrs).
I’ve been posting about the value of gardening for over a decade, describing the financial and health benefits. I Dig Dirt: The Remedy for Derealization (July 23, 2011) The Hidden Value of Gardens (September 13, 2014)
Food inflation simply increases the gains: One Solution to Soaring Food Prices: Start Your 2022 Garden Now (November 6, 2021).
Municipalities can either encourage or hinder local food production. Cities once grew between a third and a half of their own food within city limits: Could Urban Gardens Supply 1/3 of a City’s Food? Yes. (March 13, 2010).
If we’re not allowed to grow food, that’s a problem that can be solved by local lobbying or moving to a place where there are fewer restrictions on growing our own food…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
August 6, 2022
Groupthink: we are all victims
US HHS response to COVID was textbook, in all the wrong ways
“Madness is the exception in individuals but the rule in groups.”Fredrich Nietzsche
We all seek to understand the root causes of the COVIDcrisis. We crave an answer, and hope is that we can find some sort of rationale for the harm that has been done, something that will help make sense out of one of the most profound policy fiascos in the history of the United States. In tracing the various threads which seem to lead towards comprehension of the larger issues and processes, there has been a tendency to focus on external actors and forces. Examples include the Medical-Pharmaceutical Industrial complex, the World Health Organization, the World Economic Foundation, the Chinese Central Communist Party, the central banking system/Federal Reserve, the large “hedge funds” (Blackrock, State Street, Vanguard), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Corporate/social media and Big Technology, the Trusted News Initiative, and the United Nations.
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In terms of the inexplicable behavior of the general population in response to the information which bombards all of us, the denialism and seeming hypnosis of colleagues, friends and family, Mattias Desmet’s 21st century update of the work of Hannah Arendt , Joost Meerloo, and so many others is often cited as the most important text for comprehending the large scale psychological processes which have driven much of the COVIDcrisis madness. Dr. Desmet, a professor of clinical psychology at Ghent University (Belgium) and a practicing psychoanalytic psychotherapist, has provided the world with guide to the Mass Formation process (Mass formation Psychosis, Mass Hypnosis) which seems to have influenced so much of the madness that has gripped both the United States as well as much of the rest of the world.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
“Situation Is Really Precarious”: World’s Largest Rice Exporter Faces Output Decline Amid Heatwave
The effects of elevated food prices have rippled worldwide and forced governments to impose price controls and trade restrictions. Price increases are due to supply constraints driven by several variables, including high energy prices, geopolitics, and weather. Ukraine restarted maritime transport of crops to the rest of the world, forcing grain prices to slip, though the food crisis is far from over.
We pointed out in April that the next challenge for the global food supply could be a plunge in rice production (read: here). Fast forward months later, and our suspicions appear to be right as India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has seen planting areas of the crop decline by 13% due to heatwaves and drought.
India accounts for 40% of the global rice trade, and a decline in production will complicate India’s domestic inflation fight. It could result in export restrictions, leading to few supplies for the rest of the world.
In the last two weeks, prices in India have soared more than 10% in top growing states such as West Bengal, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh due to lack of rainfall and crop output concerns, Mukesh Jain, a director at Sponge Enterprises Pvt., a rice trader, told Bloomberg. He expects export prices to reach $400 a ton by next month from $365 this week.
Rice feeds half of humanity and is vital for political and economic stability across Asia. Supply disruptions due to potential trade restrictions by India could create shortages and rising prices elsewhere.
There’s still hope crop output could recover as the monsoon season is expected to produce normal rainfall through September. However, some farmers sounded the alarm output is expected to drop significantly.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Collapse Won’t Just Reset Society, It Will Destroy It
I
The collapse of techno-industrial civilization is likely to occur on the present business-as-usual mode of social functioning, probably by 2030, but there are scenarios where it could be before Christmas 2022, if the West and Russia slide into nuclear war; that is our position, supported here. This article is a response to Adam Van Buskirk’s paper “Collapse Won’t Reset Society” (Van Buskirk, 2022), who argues that collapse does not lead to the Mad Max/zombie apocalypse scenario, even in the case of all-out nuclear war. We could not disagree more; hence this response. But the Van Buskirk article is typical of “normie” responses to the confrontation with civilizational collapse, so it is instructive to critique his article as a sample of a general pattern of thought. Indeed, the senior member of this duo was reminded of the famous record album cover by the English rock group Super Tramp, Crisis, What Crisis? (1975), featuring a guy laying back relaxing in a deck chair, under an umbrella, with chaos and destruction all around him. He is oblivion to the dark fate that is rushing to engulf him. Most people, including academics and general members of the chattering class, are like that guy in the deck chair.
According to Van Buskirk “collapse” (a term which will need to be explicated below) and “the threat of imminent destruction” is a “thrilling possibility” to some people from both progressive and conservative groups, including “backwoods fundamentalists, deep green radicals, apocalyptic cults, and pessimistic online doomers.” That is indeed true, with “collapse” being a hot topic on YouTube, discussed daily at sites such as Canadian Prepper, The Angry Prepper, The Prepared Homestead, Ice Age Farmer and The Modern Survivalist (“Ferfal”), to name but a few. This selection, by the way, is highly racially diverse, so doomsday is not an exclusive preoccupation of “Whiteness.”
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
