Steve Bull's Blog, page 19
June 16, 2024
IEA’s Staggering Oil Glut is Staggeringly Unlikely
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a dishonest broker of information because of its renewable energy bias. This week, it reported that there will be a staggering oil glut by the end of the decade.
“Total supply capacity is forecast to rise to nearly 114 million barrels a day by 2030 – a staggering 8 million barrels per day above projected global demand…This would result in levels of spare capacity never seen before other than at the height of the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020.”
It’s important to clarify that the surplus in question pertains to spare capacity, not actual supply. Spare or excess oil capacity arises from production exceeding demand. Understanding the oil supply-demand balances that lead to excess capacity is critical.
Reproducing the IEA’s projections to 2030 from its Oil 2024 report was challenging because it did not include OPEC oil supply data for the projection period (Figure 1). Omitting a third of the world’s supply is significant and makes IEA’s conclusions difficult to verify. When comparing data from OPEC, discrepancies were found in the 2022 and 2023 data compared to IEA’s table.
Figure 1. IEA Table 1b WORLD OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND – WEO Regions. Source: IEA Oil 2024.Figure 2 shows that the IEA’s projected oil supply-demand surplus of 6.3 million barrels of oil per day (mmb/d) by 2030 is nearly seventy times greater than the average projections from OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the same period.
This significant discrepancy raises a red flag, suggesting potential issues with the IEA’s calculations, assumptions, or both. In two decades of monitoring these three agencies, I’ve never encountered a discrepancy of this magnitude.
Figure 2. IEA expects world oil supply-demand balance to exceed 6 mmb/d 2029-2030.OPEC and EIA expect supply and demand to be near balance after 2025.
Source: IEA, OPEC, EIA & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.
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The Crises and Sacrifices Yet to Come
The timing of finally embracing risk and sacrifice as the only option left is exquisitely sensitive: finally caving in a moment too late leads to the system collapsing beyond recovery.
The sense that we’re approaching a tipping point into a crisis with no easy resolution is pervasive, a sense that beneath the veneer of normalcy (the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates and that will fix everything), we sense the precariousness of this brittle normalcy.
While many are uneasily scanning the horizon for geopolitical crises, others see the crisis emerging here at home, possibly a political crisis or a financial crisis that ensnares us all.
Few look at the decay of our social order as the source of crisis. Few seem to notice that corruption has become so normalized that we don’t even recognize the ubiquity and depth of our corruption; we tell ourselves that this isn’t corruption, it’s just healthy self-interest, the “invisible hand” of the market magically organizing our economy to optimize efficiency and productivity. This provides cover for our worship of self-interest, a polite phrase for limitless greed.
While the media glorifies illusions of salvation and grandeur (AI!), few look at what’s been lost in the decay of our social order, a list that starts with sacrifice for the common good and civic virtue.
The American Dream has a peculiarly truncated vision of sacrifice: we make individual sacrifices to advance our personal goals, but sacrifices for the common good are not part of the Dream: sacrifices for the sake of our fellow citizens are at best unnecessary and at worst a waste of money, something only chumps fall for.
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Prepare for the Repricing of Risk Globally
There are no more “saves” available for the next market meltdown.
The past 24 years can be viewed as an era in which risk declined due to the dynamics of globalization and financialization.
The ascent of China as “workshop of the world” generated a deflationary wave of lower prices for products (due to lower labor costs and lower quality components) that blunted the inflationary impact of the global economies adding $150 trillion in debt since 2000. Global debt, public and private, now tops $315 trillion, 333% of global GDP.
Absent the deflationary impact of globalization, this vast increase in money sloshing around would have sparked inflation. Absent the vast expansion of money via financialization, the expansion of production and consumption enabled by globalization could not have occurred.
At the same time, central banks coordinated policies to steadily reduce interest rates, reaching effectively zero or negative rates (when adjusted for inflation) in 2009 and beyond. This reduction of rates far below historic norms enabled creditors to borrow more even as their debt service costs fell.
Financialization vastly increased leverage and the commodification of credit/debt, enabling emerging-market nations and enterprises and consumers globally to increase their borrowing/spending.
Globalization generated incentives for nations and their central banks to “play nice” and cooperate with other governments and banks to spur profitable (and happily deflationary) trade. These coordinated efforts enabled the global economy to avoid the potentially fatal disruptions of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008-09.
Despite localized droughts and extreme weather, global food production increased by expanding land in production and intensifying agricultural methods.
All of these risk-reducing trends are reversing or reaching diminishing returns.
Extreme weather events are increasing, leading to massive losses by insurers, a trend described in As Insurers Around the U.S. Bleed Cash From Climate Shocks, Homeowners Lose (New York Times)(seechart below):
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June 15, 2024
The Thing About AI
As if we didn’t have enough to worry about with economic, political and ecological collapse, genocides, grotesquely incompetent ‘leaders’, and nuclear brinkmanship, now we also have to worry about AI.
To some extent, as Indrajit Samarajiva has repeatedly pointed out, we have had AI around for centuries, in the form of corporations — separate entities that make decisions, control politicians, overthrow governments, and even foment and manage wars, and which now even have ‘personhood’ rights without any of the commensurate responsibilities to rein in their inherently psychopathic behaviours.
It is they, not the humans whose job is now merely to do their bidding (or be fired), who have the real power in our civilization, and contrary to claims and assurances, they are now so complex and vast as to be completely beyond human control, and increasingly not even subject to human regulation. We have handed them the reins of managing our crumbling civilization with a shrug, as if some divine force of angels will somehow steer them in the ‘right’ direction. Even our government and military administrations, which work hand-in-hand with large corporations, are incorporated organizations, and, Trumpian fantasies notwithstanding, they are not controlled by any ‘one’. They are machines, operating according to their own immortal, self-perpetuating logic. They are AI. It is not just a metaphor.
But new technologies, and massively increased computing power, are now allowing us to create new forms of AI that can mimic other human behaviours besides the management of resources — such as creating art, literature and music, and acting as friends and even lovers.
I’ve seen this evolving for two decades now — we’ve created imaginary worlds like Second Life and the worlds of MMOs and MMORPGs, which have many seductive AI elements to them, and which are now developing “realistic” AI “characters”…
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IEA’s 2030 Outlook – I Don’t Even Know Where To Start
Summary
IEA predicts global oil demand will peak by 2030, leading to an 8 million b/d surplus due to Electric Vehicle and energy transition movement.IEA’s outlook shows a disconnect between GDP growth and oil demand growth, with unrealistic assumptions about EV penetration and gasoline demand drop.Despite IEA’s flawed projections, there are insights in the report suggesting peak oil supplies this decade, particularly in US shale production.We see an oil market that’s going to be in a sustainable deficit by 2030.Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of HFI Research get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »
Roman Mykhalchuk
IEA published its latest 2030 outlook yesterday, and I don’t even know where to start. The big headline from the IEA medium-term outlook is that global oil demand will peak by 2030, and oil producers are going to face a surplus as large as ~8 million b/d thanks to Electric Vehicles (“EVs”) and the energy transition movement.
IEA
For energy investors, this is the greatest confirmation signal you needed. As a golden rule in energy investing, we’ve learned that fading the IEA has almost always worked. Who remembers IEA’s famous call in March 2022 for Russia to lose ~3 million b/d of oil production following the Ukraine invasion?
We remember, and at the time, we published a piece cautioning those following IEA’s prediction. In addition, we also tweeted at the time the following:
HFIR
With the benefit of hindsight, Russia lost zero barrels, and we ended up being wrong about the 400k b/d to 600k b/d export loss as well.
Nonetheless, the point of this article is to look at the rationale behind IEA’s massive surplus estimate. There are some notable bullish figures in these charts as well, disguised behind the hideous demand estimates.
Let’s get started.
Delusion
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#280: Not what you’ve been told
A YOUNG PERSON’S GUIDE TO THE ECONOMY
Introduction
Intended for an educational documentary, The Young Person’s Guide to the Orchestra is a 1945 composition by Bejamin Britten. A similar title – A Young Person’s Guide to King Crimson – was used for a progressive rock compilation album released in 1976.
What we need now is a Young Person’s Guide to the Economy. The term “young” can be applied however we wish, and the main advantage enjoyed by those who are young in years is that they have less to un-learn.
What passes for economic orthodoxy is, for the most part, a set of tarradiddles determinedly rooted in the agrarian economic conditions of the 1770s. Chief amongst these tarradiddles is that the economy can be explained and managed in terms of money alone, such that natural resources in general – and energy in particular – need not be taken into account.
This, given our control of the human artefact of money, leads to the proposition that we can look forward with confidence to infinite, exponential economic expansion on a finite planet. This is an idea which – in the words of Kenneth E Boulding, co-founder of general systems theory – could only be taken seriously by “a madman or an economist”.
The main problem with conventional economic theory is that it originated at a time when virtually the only energy used in the economy was provided by human and animal labour, and the nutritional energy which made that labour possible. We hear echoes of this era every time someone measures productivity by comparing economic output with hours of human labour.
Back in the 1770s, it was reasonable to conclude that labour (remunerated financially), monetary capital investment, ingenuity and financial incentive were the factors that drove the economy….
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June 13, 2024
‘Gateway to hell’ in Siberia ‘rapidly expanding’, experts warn as landmark can be seen from space
A giant crater in Siberia which can be seen from space is “rapidly expanding” due to climate change ReutersThe crater’s ever-increasing size will pose problems for the surrounding habitat, scientists say
The giant “Gateway to Hell” crater in Siberia which can be seen from space is “rapidly expanding” due to climate change.
Scientists say that the 200-acre wide, nearly 300-foot-deep Batagaika crater’s increasing size is posing problems for the surrounding habitat.
In a recent study, it was reported that the ginormous crater has grown by 35 million cubic feet (around one million cubic meters every year).
It was first formed in the 1960s, when melting “permafrost” soil within the Siberian tundra began to release tons of previously frozen methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, into the planet’s atmosphere.
The crater was first detected on images taken in 1991 and has been growing in size ever since, as global warming causes permafrost to melt.
Glaciologist Alexander Kizyakov, the study’s lead author, said that it “demonstrates how quickly permafrost degradation occurs”.
The research, published in Geomorphology, discovered that the rate of methane and other carbon gasses released as the crater grows has reached 5,000 tons per year.
Kizyakov said that soon enough, the “Gateway to Hell” will leak all of its remaining greenhouses gases.
A recent computer-generated image shows its current size
He said that there is little room for it to grow deeper as the permafrost melt has almost reached the bedrock at the bottom.
This will likely cause problems for the nearby Batagay River, as it will increase erosion on the riverbank.
However, Kizyakov, who teaches at Lomonosov Moscow State University in Russia, said that the melt could continue but sideways.
“Expansion along the margins and upslope is expected,” Kizyakov told Atlas Obscura.
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40% Surge: Growing Nitrous Oxide Emissions Trigger Scientific Alarm
Nitrous oxide emissions, largely from agriculture, have increased significantly from 1980 to 2020. Efforts to reduce these emissions are critical as there are no means to remove the gas from the atmosphere, posing risks to climate and environmental health.
Over four decades, nitrous oxide emissions have risen sharply, driven mainly by agriculture. Without technologies to remove it, the focus must shift to reducing emissions to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
Recent increases in emissions heighten concerns over their impact on global warming and environmental health.
Nitrous Oxide EmissionsBetween 1980 and 2020, emissions of nitrous oxide—a greenhouse gas more potent than carbon dioxide or methane—continued unabated, with over 10 million metric tons released into the atmosphere in 2020 alone, predominantly due to farming practices. This finding comes from a new report by the Global Carbon Project.
The report, “Global Nitrous Oxide Budget 2024,” led by researchers from Boston College and published today (June 11) in the journal Earth System Science Data, states that agricultural production was responsible for 74 percent of human-driven nitrous oxide emissions in the 2010s. These emissions were mainly due to the use of chemical fertilizers and animal waste on croplands.
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A recession indicator with a perfect record has been flashing red for 20 months. It may not be wrong yet.
Yuichiro Chino/Getty Images
A recession indicator with a flawless record has been flashing red for 20 months.The economist behind the inverted yield curve says it’s too soon to declare it’s wrong this time.Campbell Harvey, a Duke finance professor, pointed to signs of a cooling job market to back his concerns.A recession indicator with a perfect track record has been flashing red for 20 months now, but the economist who pioneered its use warned against dismissing it just yet.
“I think it’s way too early to declare a failure,” Campbell Harvey told Fox Business about the inverted yield curve.
The 3-month Treasury yield has climbed above the 10-year yield before eight of the past eight recessions dating back to the 1960s, without any false positives. Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University, first identified that pattern over 30 years ago.
Stock market crash: 60% downside for S&P 500, expert warns
The same yield curve has been inverted for around 20 months since October 2022. But past recessions have struck with up to a 23-month lag, Harvey noted.
“We’re still not out of the woods,” he said, noting the indicator will only exceed its historical lead time if there’s still no downturn by October.
Even so, he advised investors not to rely on his alarm bell alone, but to combine it with other measures to gain a fuller picture of the economy’s health and outlook.
Harvey pointed to several economic “red flags” including employment figures for May that were released on Friday. Headline unemployment ticked up to 4%, with Black unemployment jumping from 5.6% to 6.1%. The labor force participation rate also dropped to 62.5% as some people exited the job market.
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Egypt sets hottest June day in African history; historic heatwave hits Cyprus
Aswan in Egypt recorded 50.9 °C (123.6 °F) on June 7, 2024, setting the highest reliable temperature ever recorded in Egypt and the hottest June day in African history. On the same day, Cyprus experienced its hottest June day ever with temperatures hitting 44 °C (111 °F), breaking its record for the second time this month.
On June 7, 2024, Aswan in Egypt reached a staggering 50.9 °C (123.6 °F), setting the highest reliable temperature ever recorded in Egypt and marking the hottest June day in African history. Previously, Egypt recorded a temperature of 51 °C (123.8 °F) on July 4, 1918, also in Aswan, but it was taken without a Standard Stevenson Screen, which raises questions about its accuracy.
Additionally, Alula in Saudi Arabia set a new monthly record at 47 °C (116.6 °F) on June 7.
The same day saw Cyprus set its new national record for the hottest June day ever, with temperatures soaring to 44 °C (111 °F) — 10 °C (18 °F) above the usual peak June temperatures. This marked the second time in the same month that Cyprus broke its highest June temperature record, following a previous high of 43.7 °C (110.7 °F) set on June 5.
On June 11, Rhourd Nouss in Algeria experienced historic temperatures as high as 48.8 °C (119.8 °F) with a minimum of 35.9 °C (96.6 °F). The same day, El Borma in Tunisia registered 48 °C (118.4 °F), and Tripoli in Libya recorded 46.8 °C (116.2 °F), according to climatologist and weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.
Other notable temperatures in the region included Rhourd Nouss, which on June 10 recorded a minimum of 34.2 °C (93.6 °F) and a maximum of 47.6 °C (117.7 °F), while El Borma reached 46.1 °C (115 °F) and Essbea near Tripoli hit 46.2 °C (115.2 °F). In Saudi Arabia, Gassim set new June records with a minimum of 34 °C (93.2 °F) and a maximum of 47 °C (116.6 °F), while Najran reached 43 °C (109.4 °F) on June 10.
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