R.W. Krpoun's Blog, page 15

Nation building: the failure of cumulative effort

For years I have studied the Vietnam War with a growing emphasis on the advisory effort, and as of late I have been studying the advisory efforts in Iraq prior to the advent of ISIS/ISIL. The inescapable conclusion I have reached is that both efforts encountered the same problems, and both failed to achieve their intended goals.

The US doctrine in Vietnam was sound, and in three parts: 1) use US military force to hammer down the invasion of North Vietnamese regular forces coming south while suppressing the indigenous Veit Cong. While this was going on, 2) the existing advisory effort would build up ARVN (the South Vietnamese Army) and the associated forces to a point where they could exert government control on their own. And 3), civilian advisory would help the South Vietnamese government institutions mature and earn popular support.

The VC were utterly destroyed by 1968 (it helped that the Soviet-trained North Vietnamese was not unhappy to see them go, as having experienced indigenous guerrillas around was not conducive to a calm absorption of the target nation; the Soviets used similar tactics with the Polish Home Army in 1944). The NVA were fought to a standstill. When Nixon brought the bombing campaign back, the North Vietnamese went to the peace table.

This should have had a happy ending, except that the advisory campaigns wre by and large complete failures.

The concept of the advisory effort was sound: experienced US personnel would integrate at every level of the army and civilian government and help their Vietnamese counterparts absorb the lessons, training, and experience that an instant nation created from an abruptly freed colony lacked. They would also help the Vietnamese absorb the military and civil aid being pumped into the country. Key Vietnamese personnel would be sent to the USA for advanced and technical training. North of the DMZ, the Soviets and Chinese were doing the same thing.

On the technical side, the US effort was an unqualified success; by the time the US ground forces withdrew in accordance with the peace agreement, the South Vietnamese had, and could operate/maintain, everything from long-range radio systems to combat jets.

On the Human side, the US effort was a complete failure. Corruption was epidemic in both military and civilian organizations. Promotions were issued on the basis of political reliability, and the US utterly failed to convince the majority of ARVN and civil leaders that the USA would actually pull out and go home.

The advisory effort failed to build a military where professionalism and competence were routinely valued and rewarded, and where the organization was valued and served as an institution.

John Paul Vann, the shining star of the advisory effort, observed that after 12 years of advisory effort, the Vietnamese had ‘one year of advise repeated 12 times’. While the South Vietnamese were capable of fighting as well and hard as their northern counterparts, their military lacked the technical and organization values of an well-grounded system, so consistent performance was impossible.

Advisers rotated out every year, and with each rotation a new team had to struggle with language and cultural barriers while trying to incorporate organizational change while lacking any real authority. There was no cumulative effect of years of advisory effort: each new set of advisers rotated in and found the clock was set back to near the starting point.

When the NVA invaded south in 1975, using more tanks than Patton had ever commanded, many ARVN units stood and fought well, while an equal number simply collapsed and fled. Coupled with the decision by Congress to not honor our treaty obligations to provide military munitions, supplies, and air support, South Vietnam was doomed.

How it could have turned out differently is amply demonstrated by two examples. The first is the Army of North Vietnam: the Soviets and Chinese sent advisers in even as WW2 was waning, but instead of offering advice, they were empowered to give orders. Locals who did not cooperate or perform to desired standards were sacked, and often jailed. The result was a professional, modern military.

The second example was the Special Forces/CIA controlled MIKE Forces, which were battalions of various ethnic minorities and Cambodian volunteers who were commanded, trained, and paid by US forces, and which uniformly performed as well as any combatants in the conflict.

Ironically, these methods mirror that of the birth of the US Army, in which Baron von Stuben, a German professional soldier, was made a flag officer of the Continental Army and charged with training the US forces to a professional standard.

Fast forward to Iraq. The US handily toppled Saddam Hussain’s regime, and then undertook to build a democratic nation in its place.

To do so, we applied a three-part strategy: 1) the US military would defeat the various insurgent/loyalist factions, 2) military and contract advisers would organize and train a new army and revamp the existing police forces, while 3) civilian advisers would build a new government.

Part 1 went well; the US/Coalition military crushed the opposition, and stability extended control over the nation (over time, but we are talking in strategic terms).

Parts 2 and 3 were more rocky; once again, the technical aspect went well. Pilots, mechanics, and the like were trained and the force was equipped with suitable gear, a mix of US gear and legacy equipment from the Saddam regime. But the Human aspect failed miserably: corruption was rife, and the differences between muslim faiths, and tribal groups, and the Kurds/Iraqis were never significantly addressed. Team after team arrived, struggled with language and cultural barriers, and attempted to persuade the local leaders to follow new doctrines, only to rotate home on shedule as new teams arrived.

The job basically done, the US/Coalition forces withdrew, and once they were safely out, ISIS/ISIL, with solid foreign backing, hit the Iraqis. Once again, some units stayed loyal and fought well, while others simply folded.

I firmly believe that the lessons are inescapable: advising does not work. Either send in personnel on multi-year tours with the authority to command, or do not try at all.

Use of Force by police (USA)

I though this might be of interest to writers who plan to include police actions in their works, or just general interest. In any case, I dashed it off yesterday when I was thinking ‘what should I blog about’.

I’m still hitting the keyboard, BTW. Thanks to all my readers, both of my novel and this minimalist blog.

When can officers use force? To protect their lives, to protect the life/lives of a third party(s), to effect an arrest or search, or to maintain the public peace/safety (each state has its own legal code, so the terminology varies).

What is maintaining the public peace/safety? The classic example is a homeless person brandishing a knife or club and shouting nonsense in a public place, say the parking lot of a grocery store. Is he breaking the law? Not necessarily. Is he placing others in fear for their safety? Yes. Is he disturbing the peace? Certainly. Will this end badly? Often.

While the 56,000-odd police agencies in the USA are autonomous, all state and local agencies have the same rules on use of force (the Feds have their own). These rules are known as the Use of Force Continuum, and are set by case law from the higher (Federal) courts.

In this context, force is generally described as ‘any action which is intended or designed to affect the actions of another’.

Think of the Continuum as a ladder, starting at the bottom. Different agencies do sometimes use different terms and make small adjustments, but this is an applicable, if general, guide.

The Use of Force Continuum

Officer Presence. The presence of a police officer will usually impact peoples’ behavior.

Verbal commands. Telling people what to do, or not do.

Soft Hand. Slapping, pushing, restraining, pressure point control, and the like.

Chemical Devices. OC pepper spray, pepper balls, and the like. I don’t know if any agency in the USA still uses Mace, but if they do, that will fall higher in the Continuum because some people have strong allergic reactions. Some agencies rate Chemical Devices equal to Heavy Hand.

Hard or Heavy Hand. Punching, kicking, head butting, stomping, and the like.

Electronic Control Device. Tasers, stun guns, and the like. Because this technology is relatively new, some agencies put this between Soft and Hard Hand, or equal to Hard Hand. Case law has not fully nailed this down.

Blunt Impact. Hitting with batons, rocks, handcuffs, portable radios, or anything else. Shotgun beanbag rounds sometimes appear here, although they also get put into Deadly Force.

Deadly Force. This is any use of force which is intended, or by its nature designed, to inflict serious bodily harm or death.

Pretty simple, right? Now let’s throw in some modifiers:

Each use of force is taken in context to the totality of the circumstances, and also the perception of the officer at the time the force is used. If the officer perceives that a subject had a handgun, and employs deadly force, the fact that the subject’s weapon was unloaded, a toy, or something else entirely is not relevant so long as the conditions were such that a reasonable person in the exact same circumstances could make the same perception.

There is no requirement to proceed literally up the Continuum. An officer can transition directly from Officer Presence to Deadly Force if the situation requires.

Devices such as Chemical Agents or ECDs, which require very specific conditions, can be excluded from the Continuum in a situation where they cannot be brought into effective use.

An officer can employ one level of force higher than that which is being used against him. In other words, if a subject tried to slap an officer, that officer is justified in body slamming them or punching them. Note that the officer does not have to employ this extra force; it is simply an option. Officers often use less force than is being brought against them, if it can be done safely.

An officer is never required to place their life or physical safety at risk.

Deadly Force

Note that Deadly Force doesn’t mention weapons. Can you beat someone to death with your bare hands? Obviously, it happens literally every day. The circumstances of each use of force are weighed on their own merits.

Nearly all agencies prohibit the use of the choke hold, but if an officer is in a deadly force situation and uses the hold, is that a violation? No. The final tier of the Continuum (Deadly Force) can be taken very simply as ‘what is needed to survive’.

People often ask ‘why didn’t the officer just shoot him in the leg’? Besides the danger of missing (and have the round ricochet or over-penetrate and strike a bystander, the simply fact is that a firearm is always deadly force. There’s no ‘limb shot’ stage in the Continuum, because the courts recognize that it is utterly unviable.

Anyway, that’s a brief overview. Normally, the basic course on this subject is 40 hours. Please excuse any typos.

Where has all the TP gone?

The inspiration and ideas are coming in at a good rate, and progress is being made.

Meanwhile, Grog had become my second-best selling novel, and for that all of you have my heart-felt thanks.

So we find ourselves in a pandemic. I’m a bit uncertain about it, myself: the media is hyping it like they own stock in hand sanitizer, while the reported cases in the USA are small, and the deaths few (speaking from an academic viewpoint; obviously people dying is no small matter).

Still, here we are. Perhaps I’m jaded from writing books filled with demise of billions.

In any case, here’s hoping that all who read this come through this storm with their health and loved ones intact.

After the fact

Grog is doing extremely well; sales are consistently high since it’s release. Thank you all!

Back in the 80s, before I had a computer (first one was a Macintosh with no hard drive that cost $1500) I was always jotting down story ideas and keeping them in a briefcase, along with numerous hand-written projects, including one full-length novel (which will never see the light of day, and should not).

It was a terribly inefficient system, but back then I had no real intention of being published; I just had a habit or a hobby.

But it was last week, as I was walking on my property (I live in the country) that I realize that I had had an idea back then of a large, powerful, but easy-going warrior and a small, clever, female side-kick in a fantasy setting. It was just a character concept, but I realize that Grog is the final product.

Not a stunning revelation, just a ‘funny how things work out’ observation.

I have 25k words in my current project and am hammering forward, with another project weighing heavily on my thoughts.

Thanks again to all my readers: you guys are amazing!

The things you learn

Well, Grog is selling wonderfully, and the reviews are both favorable and positive. I am deeply grateful that my fans took time to post them, and that several were from new readers.

So I just watched El Camino, the follow-on movie to Breaking Bad, which is perhaps my favorite TV series of all time. I didn’t watch BB until sometime between season 4 and 5, because I wasn’t interested in a show that glamorized drug dealers. I finally gave it a try, and it was incredible. And it certainly didn’t glamorize crime. I saw the series ending of Dexter, which was an utter letdown, not long before the end of BB, and I dreaded how they would end it, but BB’s ending was perfect.

I was concerned that El Camino would mess up BB, much as Serenity tarnished Firefly, but they did well: it was an excellent follow-on aimed at the dedicated fans, serving as a an extension to the last episode.

You don’t see a lot of really great TV anymore, but EC was truly good, and it inspired me a great deal.

And the hunt continues

So blogging is supposed to be the dispensation of interesting observations and bits of life. Frankly, I an useless at it. I have trouble envisioning what about my life would be considered interesting by anyone else.

Marketting your books is supposed to be a big part of an author’s job, but I’m lacking in that area, too.

It’s a good thing I get a pension check every month, because I would starve if my writing skills were all that I had going for me.

Anyway, Grog is selling well, better than most of my recent books, and the reviews are popping at a refreshing rate; I cannot thank my readers enough, particularly those who follow my work. More than anything else, I just want people to enjoy my work the way I have enjoyed the writing of so many writers.

Meanwhile I am examining stalled projects, and hunting inspiration, that magic spark that will blossom into a plot that will go the word-count distance.

I’m close on two options that the moment, and for the last few months I have been hoarding movies and TV series on my DVR and Amazon Prime account; this week I will start watching them in the hopes of jump-starting inspiration.

In the meantime, I’m reading The Master’s Compass and cleaning up typos. I can improvise covers, I have a small but incredibly wonderful fan base, but the lack of professional editing is not something you can get around.

In less than two days the latest upgrade to Hearts of Iron 4 will come out, and I will once again bury myself in WW2: the What If. Fortunately, my gaming habit provides inspiration to write.

Grog has been published

The ebook version of Grog have gone live; the paperback will be available later this weekend.

As editing processes go, it was relatively painless; I finished and got it uploaded about six hours ago. I hope it is well-received; now I must move on to another project.

Monday 2-17-20

Grog has finished all editing stages and I am now about halfway through making the needed changes and typo-elimination. I hope to publish it by the weekend.

I’m looking forward to concentrating on writing. With luck I will get a second novel out this year.

Monday, 2-10-20

Grog has entered the third phase of editing; the cover has been selected, and the blurb is coming together. Hpefully, it will be published soon.

I have chosen a stalled project from 2011 to take up once Grog is sorted out, and I am looking forward to getting to it. I will not identify it (or any other project) until I am within sight of the end. I will use the working title of Project 20, because it sounds inspiring.

Monday 2-3-20

Grog continues through the second phase of editing. A cover and dedication has been set out, and while I wait I ponder the sales blurb and the plot of another stalled project.

The writing must continue.