Issandr El Amrani's Blog, page 20
September 18, 2013
Reach of Turmoil in Egypt Extends Into Countryside
Great reporting in the NYTimes on the tensions and the harassment of MB families outside Cairo. On the funeral of one MB member:
In this small, close-knit and rural Nile Delta town, it is customary for the community to gather behind the family for the procession to the graveyard. Mr. Abdel Aal, however, was greeted with epithets — someone called him a dog, someone else an infidel. One family even held a wedding at the same time, something unheard-of.
Meanwhile, another Times article gives a more complex picture of the recent operation to "liberate"Dalga, a town near Minya where Christians have been terrorized by local Islamists (and opportunistic thugs).
But the security forces did not bring such heavy weapons to protect Christian residents. Interior ministry officials said the expedition was an attempt to capture a single fugitive Islamist, and it may depart soon. The overwhelming force, they said, was merely for self-protection: the surrounding province of Minya is still considered a bastion of Islamist support for Mr. Morsi.
September 17, 2013
Mubarak's last chuckle
Private newspaper Alyoum7 has been publishing a series of audio recordings on its website of Mubarak and some unknown voices (reportedly recorded by one of his doctors) in which the erstwhile president comments on events throughout the summer. The sound clips are crudely edited, creating a lot of awkward pauses where there probably were none.
That being said, the voices sound over-rehearsed and sometimes border on hostages trying to keep calm and entertain a mad gunman.
Mubarak and friends express admiration of el-Sisi. His unknown interlocutors tell lame jokes about the Brotherhood, eliciting gruff chuckles from the former president.
Mubarak and friends say the MB is stupid and crazy for going head to head (more like knee to head) against the military, the police and the people. One voice likens them to a mindless CSF soldier who just follows orders and can’t think for himself. They predict that things will calm down and fondly reminisce about Habib el-Adly’s good ol days when the Brothers were “collected.”
One voice tells the story of an MB relative who makes noises about Morsi’s legitimacy and the likes. This brainwashed, failed dentistry student protester stayed in Raba’a and didn’t visit his dying mother, the voice says. Mubarak interjects to remind him that, of course, the failure won’t leave since he is getting paid to stay there.
Mubarak and friends discuss possible leaders. It has to be a strong man from the army, Mubarak says. One of the leaders who is left, but not Sami Anan. He can’t handle Egypt.
Mubarak’s June 30: The army might intervene and “make (the MB) leave.”
Mubarak reiterates the theory about Morsi breaking out of prison with Hamas help -- hence his inability to say anything critical of them or curb their activities in Sinai.
Furthermore, Mubarak says he felt the revolution coming a while back. The US has been plotting to remove him since 2005, impatiently working on “making the revolution," despite the fact that he told them that he was planning to hand over power in 2011 -- not to pass it down to his son, an idea they created and sold to the people.
The unrest in Sinai began when Morsi pardoned certain prisoners, according to Mubarak. Also, the tribal leaders in Sinai are decor; the youth is running the show. Speaking with obvious pride, Mubarak recalls how Habib used to detain the little rascals.
Sinai needs careful thinking, Mubarak wisely adds, since Israel still wants to push the Palestinians into Sinai. Benjamin Netanyahu spontaneously told him as much six months before his ouster, but Mubarak firmly told him to forget about it.
There's an app for that...
This brings new meaning to the term Apple fanboy:
WOW MT @mwa4 Globalization: Syrian rebel uses iPad accelerometer to aim homemade mortar http://t.co/ltbIaIz9Iu pic.twitter.com/2BudEtToni
— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) September 16, 2013
September 16, 2013
Links late August - September 16, 2013
Algeria’s Bouteflika appoints allies to key ministerial roles - FT.comEgypt Defends Decision to Nix Al Jazeera Misr - WSJTamarod members in Beni Suef submit resignations
Wonder how much has to do with crackdown in Beni SuefLa Stampa - Diary Of Humiliation And Faith From A Hostage In Syria73% of Egyptians don't feel safe; 62% expect living conditions to improve in a year
A lot of fear, and un-meetable expectations: the take-away from a recent poll from the Baseera CenterTahrir Doc THE SQUARE Is A Modern Masterpiece
This doc about the Jan 25 uprising and its aftermath gets a rave reviewNOREF - Saudi Arabia and the export of religious ideologies
Laurent Bonnefoy.Violence Reshapes Egypt's Politics - By Dina Rashed | The Middle East ChannelSharing my depressing thoughts on Egypt | moftasa.net
"Our attempt to stand up have showed us that we have a broken back."Assad supporters caught out by offer of chemical weapons concession | The National
Invaluable Phil Sands - a top reporter to watch on Syria.Two-State Illusion - NYTimes.com
"the fantasy that there is a two-state solution keeps everyone from taking action toward something that might work."Persisting Brothers | Mada Masr
Interview with Amr Darrag, Freedom and Justice Party leader who has not been charged or detainedEgypt: Journalist and Lawyer Held in Crackdown | TIME.comMission Journal: Who is a journalist in Egypt? - Committee to Protect JournalistsMuslim Brotherhood Leader Arrests
A useful list of updated arrests and charges from the Atlantic CouncilLawrence Durrell's Alexandria home to be demolished
The Quartet is overrated, but this is still a landmarkMuslim Brotherhood newspaper soldiers on despite Egypt crackdown | Reuters
Great reporting.Who's the next head of Hezbollah? New platform has some predictions -- FCWBBC News - Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood under fire over tailored languageEgypt’s Interior Minister removes prison official after reports Islamists met in jail - The Washington PostThe Battle of the Archives: What Egypt's Intellectuals and Muslim Brotherhood Lost : The New YorkerSupport for el-Sisi: What’s in it for al-Saud? | Middle East Institute
Thomas LippmanSyria: Which Way to Kurdistan? by Hugh Eakin | NYRblogSnowden in Exile by Amy Knight | NYRblog
Snowden-Philby comparisons.▶ توفيق عكاشة - YouTube
In which Tawfik Okasha threatens Sheikha Moza to broadcast pics of her in a bikini.Al Jazeera journalists detained in Egypt
More targeting of Al JazeeraMinisters defend decision to order closure of Al Jazeera channelPress Releases 2013 | Embassy of the United States
Patterson responds to al-Ahram plot accusations22 Key Points in Egypt's New Draft Constitution - Al-Monitor
Bassem Sabry…and Sonallah Ibrahim? « Arabic Literature (in English)
Qualey responds to our post.Riding the Tiger - Sada
"The one indisputable victim of Rabaa al-Adawiya is therefore the democratic transition"Egypt’s military and its Christian citizens | Mada MasrThe steps that Obama must now take on Syria - FT.com
BrzezinskiLabor politicized or politicized labor | Mada Masr
Egypt represses strikes, seeks MB links.Brotherhood considers recognizing 30 June's demands | Egypt Independent
Contradictory info.Energy groups rethink commitment to Egypt - FT.com
Debt to oil firms could be over $5bnAP: Cairo nighttime curfew sparks defiance and boredom
Living with the curfewBloodied and bruised, Egypt's Brotherhood searches for strategy | Al Jazeera AmericaMilitary saved us from civil war, says Salafi Dawa figure
Sheikh Yasser BorhamiShater’s son arrested in dawn raid
Saad al-Shater.Cairo nighttime curfew sparks defiance and boredom
What's more, they could make an exception for food deliveryThe Middle East Explained In One Excellent Letter To The EditorLibya has many problems – Zeidan | Libya Herald
When PM says state is disintegrating...Ben Ali revient... en photo sur le compte Instagram de son fils Mohammed
Ben Ali on InstagramEgypt’s Journalists, Still Under Siege - NYTimes.com
Ibrahim Eissa, with odd timing.Egypt's devastating museum looting latest casualty - Businessweek
Archaeologists rescued mummies under sniper fire from Malawi museumI Escaped Death in an Egyptian Police Van but Witnessed an Attempted Rape | VICE United Kingdom
Horrifying account of arrest▶ سما المصرى تهدى ( قناة الجزيرة ) كليب جديد. - YouTube
Anti-Jazeera, Qatar Egyptian shaabi pop tuneBecca Wasser: Israel and the Gulf states | IISSEn Egypte, le pire peut commencer | Courrier internationalAlgerian says Egypt will be worse than Algeria's civil war.Obama Officials Weigh Response to Syria Assault - NYT
"could range from a cruise missile strike to a more sustained air campaign against Syria"Mubarak Is Moved From Prison to House Arrest, Stoking Anger of Islamists - NYTimes.comAttacks Rise Against Egypt’s Christians - NYTimes.comA Crumbling Salafi Strategy - Sada
In Tunisia.Sinai’s Role in Morsi’s Ouster - Sada"Il faut tuer ou arrêter les leaders des Frères musulmans"
Interview with police general in Le MondeVideo of attack on Aswan police stationVillage bloodbath highlights Egypt's new agonyThe battle of fictitious factsEgypt's Rulers Have a New Friend in DC: The Israel Lobby | The Cable
It's a new-old friend, actually.7 Signs of the Death of Egyptian Politics | Middle East Institute
Amr Hamzawy1001 Street Chairs of CairoMuslim Brotherhood faces struggle to survive bloodshed and propaganda | The GuardianIn turnaround, ruling Tunisia Islamists will meet rivals | Reuters
After Ghannouchi-Sebsi talksIs It Nuts to Give to the Poor Without Strings Attached? - NYTimes.com
Fascinating, with lessons to learn for MENA subsidies.Beyond the voice of battle | Mada Masr
Nice to see Jack Shenker writing about Egypt again, even if in sad circumstances.Opinion: In Middle East, President Obama misplays hand - Bruce W. Jentleson - POLITICO.com
One of the subtler critiques of Obama FP in MENAWhen the conscripts go home… « 3arabawy
Will they like what they see outside the army bubble?The Invention of Throne Day
On Morocco
On the Coptic diaspora
Michael Wahid Hanna has a long essay on American copts and their political influence in MERIP, in which he examines the sometimes radical (or outright fanficul) positions the diaspora has taken, its interplay with the government and others in the "old country." He concludes:
In the end, diaspora activism must be judged by how it affects the lives of those the activists claim to champion. Demagoguery might find an audience in the West, but will undoubtedly erode the credibility and position of Copts in Egypt. Diaspora activists must also come to grips with the internal divisions of the Coptic community and the variety of experiences for Christians in Egypt, who face differing treatment depending on a number of variables, including socio-economic status and geography. Egypt is the site of genuine sectarian discord, and it would be perverse if the efforts of Coptic diaspora activists were a further cause of strife and a rallying cry for Islamists who seek to implement a vision of religious supremacy.
A good piece to read along this post by Magdi Atiya on the always worth reading blog Salama Moussa.
Dickinson on Bahrain: "Who shot Ahmed?"
Friend of the blog Elisabeth Dickinson, a correspondent for The National , has a Kindle Single out today about the 2011 uprising in Bahrain and its subsequent repression. From the blurb:
Who Shot Ahmed? recounts the murder of a 22-year-old videographer, killed in cold blood in the dead of night at the height of Bahrain’s Arab Spring revolution. On a small island Kingdom swirling with political, economic, and sectarian tensions, Ahmed’s murder epitomized everything that had gone wrong since 2011, when pro-democracy protesters took to the streets in droves. Drawing on dozens of testimonies, journalist Elizabeth Dickinson traces the tale of Ahmed’s death and his family’s fearless quest for justice. Darting between narratives and delving into characters, it is a tale of a life lost and the great powers—from Washington to London, and Riyadh to Manama—that did nothing to stop the crisis. Dickinson has a deep knowledge of the region, but she brings a story from a foreign land straight back home: Ahmed could be any of our sons.
You can find out more about the book on the publisher’s page, its Facebook page or on Twitter at @WhoShotAhmed. I just bought my copy, get yours by clicking on the cover above!
September 15, 2013
Sinai journalist in military court
The Sinai journalist and fixer Ahmad Abu Daraa (who worked for Al Masry Al Youm and with most foreign reporter traveling to the peninsula) is facing a military trial for publishing false information about the army, filming and photographing in a military zone, and having contacts with terrorist groups.
According to this article, the charges are based not on any published articles by Abu Daraa but on a Facebook post in which he contradicted army account of the bombing of the villages of al-Toma, al-Mokta'a and al-Sheikh Zuwayed. The army says they killed and injured terrorists there; Abu Daraa said they injured four civilians and destroyed half a dozen houses and a mosque. His note has been removed from FB.
Both local and international press is facing significant harassment in Egypt these days.
Note: Thanks to Nour Youssef for looking into this story.
Egypt: Nothing was inevitable
At Ahram Online, Ibrahim El Houdaiby analyzes the poor political choices on the Brotherhood's part that led to the alienation of revolutionary forces, the opportunity for a return of the ancien regime and the MB's downfall. Whether you believe the MB could have charted a different course or you think its very structure and belief system made its mistakes inevitable, this kind of analysis -- rather than the unsubstantiated accusations of terrorism, the class prejudice, the wholesale demonization one hears so often -- helps explain June 30th. (The English translation is not always smooth; the original Arabic article is here).
The Muslim Brotherhood appointed the first Cabinet with many ministers who were Mubarak’s men because the president did not want to make concessions to his political opponents so they could participate in purging and reforming state agencies. He chose to share power with those already in power, including the military and remnants of the former regime, and also because of the limited abilities of the Cabinet members he brought in.All of this made him gradually lose the support of revolutionary forces. No popular support could have stood up to the interest networks in state agencies that sought to thwart him (even before his election, I and more knowledgeable writers than myself often wrote that the president would face challenges in electricity, services, national security and social peace that would be instigated by those who wanted to restore former conditions. The only way to overcome these challenges was to build a popular alliance based on genuine concessions by Morsi that realise the gravity of these challenges. The only way was to rely on general grassroots support, not the Muslim Brotherhood group’s base).
September 14, 2013
The Israeli debate over Syria's chemical weapons and Iran
Israeli officials complain that the delay of American military action on Syria will be detrimental to their national security, and that Obama has left them holding the bag yet again. And while the removal of Syrian chemical weapons under international auspices would benefit Israel, it does not benefit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his associates' position on Iran -- where they would like to see military action to prevent the development of nuclear weapons.
"Israel provided intelligence to the Obama Administration on Syria. Now, [there is] a debate over what they have to show for it," writes Sheera Frenkel. What Israel will "get" at present for its intel on the weapons is the (temporary) tabling of the military option against the regime - much to the chagrin of many Syrians opposed to Assad's regime, who had placed high hopes that the threat of strikes would lead to something more than this, a hope that has dimmed every day the U.S. has refrained from an attack. Now, a deal is tentatively in place for these weapons to be removed from Syria under international monitoring by 2014. So the U.S. has legitimized the regime it has simultaneously (though not even half-heartedly) been trying to remove.
In Netanyahu's mind, containment and monitoring has been tried and has been failing for years against Tehran. The Russian proposal will at best be spotty to enforce and could take years to achieve. Unsurprisingly, all of the Persian Gulf states feel exactly the same way, though their support for a strike goes beyond mere shared animus towards Iranian influence. And unlike Israel, they have decided who they want to "win" the war. For Israel, no endgame in particular is necessarily desired. Since the start of the conflict, the IDF has used the civil war to weaken the "Axis of Resistance" whenever possible by striking targets of opportunity and not interrupting their enemies while they make mistakes. Israeli officials are not thrilled with the prospect of a rebel victory in Syria - there are too many "known unknowns" about potential postwar rulers and Assad has shown that he is more responsive to the security concerns of Israel's government than the Syrian opposition.
But they also do not relish the idea of Assad retaining power, strengthened by renewed international recognition, because this will benefit Iran. Up until a U.S. military operation became an option, this posture explained why there was so little pressure from Israeli officials or AIPAC on the White House to do much more than what it was already doing.
A compromise solution involving international monitors is the second-best outcome in Netanyahu's view. Loose sarin and VX stockpiles, potentially trading hands among pro-Assad militias, Republican Guards, Free Syrian Army brigades, or al Qaeda pledges, are a frightening prospect for Israeli officials. Unlike the (still non-existent) Iranian nuclear bomb, these nerve agents exist and can be deployed by those who know how to use them. But a U.S. strike to "deter" or "degrade" Assad's capabilities is still the preferred choice because 1) the Israelis (justifiably) do not believe Assad will really surrender all his weapons and 2) Obama will have set a precedent for Iran in Syria if he uses direct force instead of hedging bets on third parties. Winning that debate is a gamble for the Israeli PM, because his main pillar of support in the U.S. - Congressional Republicans - have split on the Syrian Civil War, as has the American right in general.
In Netanyahu's view, if the U.S. does not strike, Syria will end up keeping some quantity of its nerve agents, and Iran will be emboldened to accelerate its nuclear program to achieve a bomb-making capability. Enforcing deterrence is the Israeli priority - even if in the near term, an American sortie over Damascus would not physically eliminate the proliferation threat that Syria's chemical weapons pose.
Joel Schalit notes that "the Syria strikes are the best chance yet for Netanyahu to prevail in his struggle with Israel's military leadership to deal with Iran. And ironically, it's Obama [who] made that possible." He may regain the initiative on Iran from his generals as a result of the Syrian crisis -- an initiative he lost last summer when a series of leaks in the Israeli press exposed how isolated the PM was from many of his ministers and security chiefs, and the grey cadre of retirees from those offices, on Iran.
As Schalit suggests, this was not an intentional development. Netanyahu did not win a promise from Obama to set a Syrian red line last year and, in a Xanatos Gambit, plan five turns ahead so that any choice the U.S. made would help him sell a war with Iran. Instead, Obama put himself in this situation all by himself, and Netanyahu now realizes it can benefit his perennial campaign to win a concrete American promise of hitting Iran. Only now is it an opportune time to broach the matter: the Israeli government was doing its best to avoid commenting on Syria's chemical weapons - in contrast to its usual bluster on security issues involving Egypt and Gaza.
There are two main factions at work within the Israeli government: the Prime Minister's Office and the military-intelligence community, specifically the Mossad and the General Staff of the IDF. The former is still angling to get the U.S. to commit to a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear program, while the latter, more or less united behind IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, continues to balk at the ideas of either a unilateral operation or a diplomatic effort that puts the U.S. in a position where it will "have to" support Israel on short notice in bombing Iran.
Early last August - only a few weeks prior to when Obama made his redline comment on Syria, in fact - the Hebrew-language headlines blazed with military and intelligence community leaks broadcasting Israeli generals' discontent with Netanyahu's handling of the Iranian nuclear debate going into the U.S.' presidential election. That these reports emerged at the same time U.S. military officials were warning against a "premature" strikes was by no means a coincidence. Neither countries' militaries are enthused about the prospect of such a war.
As I reported at PBS on August 1, 2012: "Anonymous [Israeli] officials have leaked information that key members of Israel's top military brass oppose an attack on Iran." This dissent was aired quite openly earlier in 2012, and former security officials publicly cautioned against an attack. Less than two weeks later, Israel's leading news outlets again revealed further names of the establishment against a strike, and dissension within the Defense Ministry. Combined with the defeat of Mitt Romney in November and the PM's earlier failure to place his former military secretary at the helm of the IAF, this meant that Netanyahu had nothing left to use against his domestic critics on Iran as 2013 began.
But after Israel's "top men" revolted against their C-in-C by going to the press, Obama inadvertently gave renewed life to Netanyahu's favored policy of preemption by making chemical weapons a red line last August.
Now that the Administration is trying to escape it predicament through the Russian proposal - one that I am not convinced the White House sought to evoke by making threats to strike, but arrived at in a state of distress - it remains to be seen if Netanyahu can rebuild momentum for military action against Iran with the gift that Obama's Syria inconsistencies have given him.
September 13, 2013
The cult of Sisi
In my latest column for the New York Times Latitude blog, I try to explain Egypt's current love affair with its armed forces, and their leader, Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi.
The public had soured on the military after the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak, under the disastrous rule of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. But then it soured on the Muslim Brotherhood even more, and when following the June protests the military removed Morsi from power, the moment was treated like the end of a foreign occupation. Protesters waved flags — some had been helpfully airdropped by army helicopters — and army pilots drew hearts of smoke in the sky above Tahrir Square. Months later, children still stop to have their picture taken next to the tanks stationed on my street.
The Egyptian Army hasn’t fought a war since 1973, and the U.S. Embassy judges that its capabilities have “degraded.” But that’s not the point. People don’t love their army because of how powerful it is, but because of how much they want to overcome their own feelings of powerlessness. To the great majority of Egyptians, the army is synonymous with the country, and supporting it is a way of wishing that Egypt will become all the things it currently isn’t: strong, independent and prosperous.
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