Tyler Cowen's Blog, page 469
August 17, 2012
China fact of the day
The Hurun Report, based in Shanghai, tracks the nation’s wealthy and calculates that there were a record 271 billionaires (in U.S. dollars) in China in 2011. A third of the top 50 and five of the top 10 hold official political positions, the report says. “The richer they are, the more political positions they have,” it adds.
Here is more.
A Syrian narrative
An emergency layover in Syria’s capital was bad enough. Then passengers on Air France Flight 562 were asked to open their wallets to check if they had enough cash to pay for more fuel.
The story is here. So what really happened?:
An Air France spokesman explained Friday that the crew inquired about passenger cash only as a “precautionary measure” because of the “very unusual circumstances.” Sanctions against Syria complicated payment for extra fuel.
He said Air France found a way to pay for the fill-up without tapping customer pockets — and apologized for the inconvenience.
For the pointer I thank Daniel Lippman.
Increased aggression during human group contests when competitive ability is more similar
From Stulp G, Kordsmeyer T, Buunk AP, Verhulst S.:
Theoretical analyses and empirical studies have revealed that conflict escalation is more likely when individuals are more similar in resource-holding potential (RHP). Conflicts can also occur between groups, but it is unknown whether conflicts also escalate more when groups are more similar in RHP. We tested this hypothesis in humans, using data from two professional sports competitions: football (the Bundesliga, the German first division of football) and basketball (the NBA, the North American National Basketball Association). We defined RHP based on the league ranks of the teams involved in the competition (i.e. their competitive ability) and measured conflict escalation by the number of fouls committed. We found that in both sports the number of fouls committed increased when the difference in RHP was smaller. Thus, we provide what is to our best knowledge the first evidence that, as in conflicts between individuals, conflicts escalate more when groups are more similar in RHP.
The paper is here, hat tip goes to Neuroskeptic. One hypothesis is behavioral. The other hypothesis is more directly microeconomic. Perhaps fouling has positive expected returns within the context of the game, but costs a player long-term reputation, risks long-term retaliation, and so on, and thus the aggression is deployed more in the really important situations.
When was it obvious our recovery would be so slow? (questions that are rarely asked)
John Cochrane presents a good point:
But we’ve heard the defense over and over again: “recoveries are always slower after financial crises.” Most recently (this is what set me off today) in the Washington Times,
Many economists say the agonizing recovery from the Great Recession…is the predictable consequence of a housing market collapse and a grave financial crisis. … any recovery was destined to be a slog.
“A housing collapse is very different from a stock market bubble and crash,” said Nobel Prize-winning economist Peter Diamond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “It affects so many people. It only corrects very slowly.”This argument has been batted back and forth, but a new angle occurred to me: If it was so obvious that this recovery would be slow, then the Administration’s forecasts should have reflected it. Were they saying at the time, “normally, the economy bounces back quickly after deep recessions, but it’s destined to be slow this time, because recoveries from housing “bubbles” and financial crises are always slow?”
No, as it turns out…
You will find further background here. That said, my read on this is quite different than Cochrane’s. He blames post-crash policy, whereas I blame (mostly) “The Great Stagnation.”
August 16, 2012
*Making the European Monetary Union*
That is the new and forthcoming book by Harold James, from the Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. If you want a history of ideas and proposals for European monetary union, including the political battles, dating back to Napoleonic times and running up through the EMS crises, using plenty of archival material, this is the place to go.
From the comments
From Tom, a good pick and a good point:
Prolly you’ve all seen it … the most underrated invention — The Pallet. More underrated even than the shipping container, but just about as needed. http://www.slate.com/articles/business/transport/2012/08/pallets_the_single_most_important_object_in_the_global_economy_.html
All this just for them?
In spite of clichés about Nascar dads and Walmart moms, the actual share of voters nationally who are up for grabs is probably between just 3 percent and 5 percent in this election, polling experts say. The Obama and Romney campaigns are expected to spend on the order of $2 billion, in part to try to sway this tiny share of the electorate.
I’ll be glad when the whole thing is over. There is also this:
In Virginia, for example, a large number of swing voters are concentrated in Fairfax County, just outside the District of Columbia…
The full article is here.
August 15, 2012
Tweets to ponder
Also: no military service among either prez/VP nominees, Scotus justices, Senate leader and (save 8 weeks) House speaker.
That thought has a legacy through David Leonhardt and Sarah Wilcox.
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