Peter Cawdron's Blog, page 5
August 23, 2020
Is there life in outer space?
The answer should be obvious
Yes!
Of course there’s life in space—that’s where Earth is!
Our planet is one teeny, tiny corner of an astonishingly vast universe. This might sound like a cheat/cheap answer, but it’s genuine. Earth is absolute proof life can thrive on an obscure planet in deep space!
We’re all astronauts on Starship Earth!
From our anthropomorphic self-centered perspective, we like to make a distinction between Earth and space but, in reality, no such distinction actually exists. Earth is just another planet in orbit around a rather ordinary star within a roughly average galaxy!
We are proof life can thrive in space for billions of years!
“Ah, but Earth is special. Earth is habitable,” some may say, but is it? Really?
Habitable is a matter of perspective. Earth is habitable for us but hostile for the organisms that first arose here billions of years ago! The cyanobacteria that produced most of the oxygen caused the first mass extinction!!!
When a species positions an entire planet
Could life thrive here?
Because this is roughly what Earth looked like during the Hadean era!
How about here? Could life flourish here?
Because this is what Earth looked like several times over the past 4.5 billion years!
The cyanobacteria that produced most of the oxygen caused the first mass extinction during what’s called The Great Oxidation Event 2.4 billion years ago. Without that, there wouldn’t be any oxygen for us to breathe today!
Earth is barely habitable. If you look at where Earth sits, it’s right on the inner edge of the habitable zone. Were it not for our atmosphere trapping heat, Earth’s seas would be frozen like Europa (we went through several snowball Earth periods!)
Without naturally occurring greenhouse gases, Earth’s average temperature would be near 0°F (or -18°C). Basically, we live on what would otherwise be a deep freezer.
Earth barely makes it into the habitable zone!
Rather than being the ideal goldilocks planet, sitting right in the sweet spot, Earth BECAME habitable! Microbes terraformed Earth. Life itself made Earth the oasis it is today!
If microbial life can do that here, why can’t it do the same elsewhere? Given billions of years like it had on Earth, the odds are, it can!
And there’s a good chance that, with the launch of @NASA @JWSTObserver in 2021 we’ll be able to detect life on other planets!
https://jwst.nasa.gov/content/science/origins.html
• • •
August 14, 2020
Our Greatest Strength
America won the Second World War on the back of its manufacturing.
Although wars require soldiers and weapons, ultimately, wars are won by endurance. When it came to World War II, the US economy outproduced its enemies. A single Chrysler factory in Detroit produced more tanks than the entire Third Reich. Ford’s Willow Run Plant rolled a B-24 Liberator bomber off its production line every two hours.
[image error]
B24 Liberator
Under normal circumstances, Liberty class cargo ships took 70 days to build, but the US got that down to four and a half days and, across all its shipyards, produced three ships a day! Not only was this a marvel of manufacturing prowess, it was a staggering logistical accomplishment.
The Germans never stood a chance, particularly once Allied bombers started hitting their factories, crippling their manufacturing.
And this brings up an interesting point. For all our faults, the greatest strength of our modern global economy is mass production. It’s what’s made smart phones like Androids and iPhones ubiquitous. Economies of scale have made modern life possible, but this transformation is yet to click for space exploration.
[image error]
Firestone Tire & Rubber Co. in Akron, Ohio. Imagine if these were deep space probes.
When it comes to NASA, there were some economies with 11 Apollo missions (Apollo 7 – 17), the Apollo/Soyuz mission and Skylab all using Saturn V and the Apollo assembly, but most capsules (and particularly the LEMs) were based on incremental improvements.
[image error]
Apollo assembly line
The Space Shuttle was supposed to be a highly reusable vehicle that could be copied to build a fleet, but in practice, no two shuttles were the same. Astronaut Mike Mullane argues in his book Riding Rockets that the shuttle was only ever experimental. Although public opinion was that shuttle flights were akin to a fancy 747, they never achieved anything like that level of reliability and efficiency or safety.
NASA has had some success with repeating designs, like Voyager 1 & 2, Viking 1 & 2 and Mars Curiosity/Perseverance (which both use the same chassis), but the bespoke nature of most missions mean there’s no opportunity to leverage the efficiency of mass production. With rockets, yes, but not with probes.
[image error]
You wouldn’t build just one car
Imagine if just a fraction of the manufacturing prowess we have behind Toyota, Hyundai, Ford, BMW, Mercedes or Boeing and Airbus was applied to building space probes.
For better or for worse (and a lot of astronomers would argue for worse), SpaceX have come closest to mass manufacturing economies of scale with their Starlink fleet of satellites. By building the same satellite thousands of times, they can drive down individual costs and launch a comprehensive space-based internet network.
Are companies like Iridium and SpaceX onto something with their mass produced satellites? Could scientific payloads benefit from the same approach?
[image error]
Starlink satellites queued ready for deployment
When it comes to the exploration of the moons in the outer solar system, there’s a case to be made for a single, repeatable, ubiquitous design that allows for landing, gathering and returning samples. The cost of such a mission is so astonishingly prohibitive and the time scales over which it must be conducted so long that it makes sense to use mass manufacturing to lower the per-mission cost and increase the effectiveness.
[image error]
NASA’s Europa Clipper
NASA’s Europa Clipper is a prelude to a lander, but what if we built clippers for Europa around Jupiter and Enceladus around Saturn and Triton around Neptune? Same design. Three points of application.
What if, instead of building a lander, driller, sample return for Europa (something that won’t happen until 2040 at the earliest), we built ten of them? Or twenty? Or a hundred? Who says we only need one on Europa? Can you imagine if we took that approach to exploring Antartica?
The advent of SpaceX, Blue Origin and Rocket Lab is heralding a new era in orbit around Earth as they employ mass manufacturing techniques and 3D printing, but it’s just the start. If we can apply the same approach to building space probes perhaps we can drive down costs to properly explore the solar system.
When are we going to build the Toyota of space probes?
[image error]
Enceladus may harbor life in its subsurface ocean
August 13, 2020
Myths and Fables
Although a post about religion might seem unusual for a blog about science and science fiction, it is relevant as the majority of people on Earth believe in one God or another.
I’m not religious, but I respect those that find comfort in their beliefs and act with kindness and compassion toward others, making the world a better, brighter place. We need more love, not less.
Religious beliefs, though, should be in harmony with science. If they’re not, we’ve got a serious problem.
[image error]
We seem more concern about past beliefs than current advances or the future
Religious beliefs that are based on a literal interpretation of the Bible or the Koran are anti-science and that makes them potentially harmful. How remarkable that the Bible itself warns people to be careful about what they believe.
But refuse and avoid irreverent legends and silly myths — I Timothy 4:7
How does religion become anti-science? By embracing fables as though they were true.
Noah’s ark is the classic example.
[image error]
If the Bible is literally true, then Noah gathered at least two of every kind of animal (and in some cases seven pairs of ceremonially clean animals) onto a massive boat that would ride the waves of a flood for the best part of a year.
Noah’s ark is estimated to contain 1.5 million cubic feet. Given there are roughly 6 million land dwelling species (at the lower end of estimates), there simply wouldn’t be enough space for two of every kind (you’d have to fit them into spaces approximately 1.5 inches squared, or in cubes around 4 centimeters each, which is absurd).
Noah’s ark is a religious story that’s simply not true. It’s a fable—a legend. It’s precisely what the Apostle Paul warned us about.
For anyone that’s still not convinced, how did the flightless Kiwi from New Zealand get to Noah’s Ark?
Or the Australian Koala?
[image error]
Can you imagine this guy walking all the way to the Middle East?
Koalas average a foraging distance of about 8 km per month. Given the distance between Australia and Israel is roughly 12,000km, if we ignore the oceans for a moment, it would take a koala 125 years to travel that far! Given Koalas only live for 12-15 years, this would have been a multi-generational journey for our marsupial friends. Oh, and after the flood, they need to get back to Australia, so it’s a minimum 250 year round trip. Oh, and they only eat eucalyptus leaves, which aren’t found anywhere along the way.
Clearly, Noah’s ark is one of the “silly myths” described in I Timothy.
Why is this important? Why does it matter?
Actually, it’s quite important because as soon as critical thinking is suspended to embrace a belief like Noah’s ark or the creation myth in Genesis, where all the animals are created in just a few days, someone is primed to dismiss good science, believing in myths rather than truth.
Noah’s ark might be a silly example, but what happens when it comes to beliefs/fears about vaccinations or 5G cellular towers, equal rights or covid-19?
How can someone that believes in Noah’s ark practice the critical thinking required to get to the truth about more important subjects? The answer is, they can’t. And this leaves them vulnerable to all sorts of wild, fanciful conspiracy theories.
Critical thinking is essential to our survival. I really don’t care whether someone believes in God or not, or which God they may believe in, what I care about is can they make their own judgements about important aspects of life? Or are they at the mercy of some supposed higher authority telling them what they should do?
Being honest with our beliefs is important.
We should question assumptions.
We should not blindly accept fallacies.
[image error]
TL;DR — Don’t surrender your intellect to foolish notions because of religious peer pressure.
[image error]
April 14, 2020
#ReadAtHome
COVID-19 is heartbreaking, ravaging our world and killing tens of thousands. As there’s no vaccine, the only effective strategy to contain its exponential growth is to self-isolate and stay at home.
There’s not much a science fiction writer can do beyond encourage people to listen to the experts and wash their hands, but I thought I could help with a #StayHome #ReadAtHome campaign.
[image error]
Not my library, but oh, how I wish…
Here’s how it works… for the next 40 days, I’m making one of my novels available for free on Amazon every 2 days! Each ebook will remain free for 5 days. Here’s the schedule. Hopefully, that’ll give you plenty to #ReadAtHome.
Novel
Teaser
Weekday
Starts
Ends
The Curious Case of the Hounds of Hell
Sherlock Holmes undertakes his most challenging case yet
Thursday
April 16th
April 20th
Mister Fluffy Bunny
WARNING: Contains violence, drug references and cute stuffed toys.
Saturday
April 18th
April 22nd
Alien Space Tentacle Porn
Read the reviews, then read the book
Monday
April 20th
April 24th
Shadows
For lovers of Hugh Howey’s WOOL series
Wednesday
April 22nd
April 26th
Anomaly
First Contact turns a New York street upside down
Friday
April 24th
April 28th
Nosferatu
Bram Stoker’s Dracula reimagined
Sunday
April 26th
April 30th
Feedback
Time travel inevitably leads to feedback loops
Tuesday
April 28th
May 2nd
What We Left Behind
Zombies have met their match in at teenaged girl called Hazel
Thursday
April 30th
All Our Tomorrows
Hazel is back to clean up Zee once and for all
Saturday
May 2nd
Road to Hell
Loyalty is a disease
Monday
May 4th
Starship Mine
It’s the journey we all take in life
Wednesday
May 6th
Welcome to the Occupied States of America
What can a disabled teen do when faced with ravenous alien monsters?
Friday
May 8th
Monsters
When reading is outlawed
Sunday
May 10th
Little Green Men
Be careful what you wish for
Tuesday
May 12th
My Sweet Satan
When first contact gets a little too close
Thursday
May 14th
Losing Mars
A rescue mission conducted 400 million miles from home
Saturday
May 16th
Maestrom
What happens when parallel worlds collide?
Monday
May 18th
Hello World
A decade’s worth of short stories in one anthology
Wednesday
May 20th
Xenophobia
What happens when first contact interrupts a civil war?
Friday
May 22nd
But the Stars
Who do you trust?
Sunday
May 24th
Please feel free to share this on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc.
If you don’t want to miss any of these, subscribe to my newsletter as I’ll be sending out reminders.
If you’re curious as to why some books don’t have an end date it’s because there’s a limit on how far I can schedule promotions on Amazon, so these will get filled in as each date approaches.
I’d like to encourage other authors to join the #ReadAtHome challenge.
#StaySafe
March 30, 2020
Book Review: But The Stars by Peter Cawdron
Here’s a great review of my latest novel But the Stars by The Indie Athenaeum
Book Title: But The Stars
Author: Peter Cawdron
Publication Date: March 27, 2020
Available on: Amazon as an eBook and as a paperback
Indie Athenaeum Rating: 5 out of 5 Stars
It’s the 22nd century and the crew of their starship Acheron is in orbit, exploring the distant ice world of P4 around the star WISE 5571. After establishing a research station, they’re there for several months and along the way, they noticed that they were not alone and an unusual life form was there!
In an effort to escape the planet and its 
inhabitants, things go sideways and their lives are at risk as the research station begins falling apart around them! Trying to escape, Dante, the ship’s flight surgeon, won’t leave her friends behind. But tentacles slither out of the darkness and grab her legs! Falling unconscious, she awakens on her ship like nothing…
View original post 1,201 more words
November 15, 2019
Beyond the Known
Dr. Andrew Rader (from MIT, specializing in long-duration spaceflight) is a SpaceX mission manager, scientist, science fiction aficionado and futurist. He has a keen eye for the past and recognizes how history shapes our future. He’s the author of several children’s books that seek to inspire the next generation of scientists and explorers and has just released something for us adults—Beyond the Known: How Exploration Created the Modern World and Will Take Us to the Stars.
I had the privilege of reading an early draft of the book and loved the way it followed the history of exploration from our humble beginnings in Africa to the migration of the Polynesians, the exploits of the Egyptians, the early sea-voyages of the Chinese through to the Romans, Vikings and Europeans.
Dr. Rader examines the motivations and ramifications of vastly different cultures as they venture out into the world. He looks at how they waxed or waned based on their desire to explore. For me, that was the crux of the book—that for all our faults, exploration opens up new horizons, and not just in terms of trade but in ideas and ethics. There’s a twisted dichotomy to exploration. On one hand, the exploitation of others through cruelty and greed is the low point, but it also provides a melting pot for diverse thinking, which provokes change. It seems the allure of the horizon has always beckoned us on, calling to us, promising of a bright future.
Curiosity is the engine that drives exploration. If you’ve read Darwin’s On the Origin of Species, you’ll know most of the examples are of species found in England. From the breeding of pigeons to ants fighting on the side of the path next to his cottage to how weeds compete with each other to fill an empty plot of dirt. Darwin may have drawn on local observations, but it was the voyage of the Beagle and his exploration of the Galapagos that set his mind alight. Exploration allowed him to see what had been staring him in the face all along.
For me, the defining criteria of a great book isn’t what lies on each individual page, it’s whether it makes me think. A five star book is one that has me mulling over ideas for days and weeks to come, and Beyond the Known does that. It leaves you with a sense of awe at how far we’ve come and excitement for the next steps.
In Beyond the Known, Dr. Rader traces our growth as a species reaching for the stars, and makes the case that our past allows us to chart the future. One day, we’ll stand on Mars and soar out toward the stars, taking all we have learned with us. Exploration shapes us, it defines us. There’s something primeval about our desire to learn—whether that’s a child on a beach looking in rock pools or the Juno probe in orbit around Jupiter, we seek because we want to learn, and we’re better for that journey.
Beyond the Known is available in ebook, paperback, hardback (complete with maps and illustrations) and (I highly recommend the) audiobook.
If you’re looking for a great read over Christmas, check out Beyond the Known.
[image error]
Beyond the Known
August 31, 2019
Don’t shoot yourself in the back!
Dr. Phil Metzger is a Planetary scientist at the University of Central Florida and CoFounder of NASA KSC SwampWorks. In a recent tweet thread he talked about the danger of dust being kicked up when landing on the Moon.
Dust? Really? So a spacecraft kicks up a little dust while landing. What’s the big deal? As you’ll see in this article. Something as trivial as dust can be problematic for future missions.
[image error]SpaceX Starhopper performs a successful take off and landing
Picture credit: BBC article on SpaceX
If you look at any rocket launch or the recent test of the SpaceX Starhopper there is ALWAYS dust, sand, dirt and rock kicked up, mixed with exhaust fumes and water vapor, forming impressive clouds.
[image error]Falcon Heavy launch.
Picture credit: SpaceX
Imagine standing down there, just slightly off to one side as the launch exhaust rushes at you. Madness, right? Ah, yeah… that’s precisely where Dr. Metzger’s research picks up. You see, on Earth, we have a thick, dense atmosphere, so the rush of the exhaust quickly dissipates as it runs into opposition from the atmosphere, billowing into those iconic clouds. Not so on the moon.
Dr. Metzger and his team spent considerable time analysing the footage of the Apollo lunar landings, looking at the dust and debris being kicked up. In this image, a rock the size of a fist is accelerated to 15 meters per second (about 35 miles per hour)
[image error]Rocks being propelled by the Apollo Lunar Lander
Picture credit: NASA with annotation by Dr. Metzger
As they looked closer, Dr. Metzger’s team noticed dust trails forming behind rocks embedded in the surface of the Moon. In essence, these rocks were being sandblasted, slowly stripped away by the grit kicked up by the exhaust.
[image error]Dust trails forming behind rocks as they’re eroded by the exhaust
Picture credit: NASA with annotations by Dr. Metzger
What the team realized was there was something in between the easily visible rocks and the dust trails, and that was sand. Rocks were clearly visible, tumbling in the videos. Dust formed trails that were easy to see, but the fine grains of sand were essentially invisible, although their effect was apparent, causing rapid erosion.
When they calculated the speed of these various classes of ejecta, they were surprised to see dust and sand exceeded the escape velocity of the Moon.
[image error]
Unlike on Earth, where the exhaust gases and dust mix with the atmosphere, billowing into clouds as they slow down, there’s no such resistance on the Moon. Being in a vacuum, once set in motion, this ejecta keeps going until it hits something.
[image error]Ejecta trajectory
Picture credit: Dr. Metzger
The image above is a simplification, but it highlights a surprising problem when it comes to Lunar missions. You can shoot yourself in the back!
Dr. Metzger points out that there are FOUR points at which the hyper-velocity ejecta could impact a lunar orbiter. Remember, the lander is kicking out debris in all directions so (in our illustration above), some goes left, some goes right and then crosses the orbit twice (while outbound and then again when inbound).
These calculations were done for the Apollo missions. Even back then, with a lightweight lander, ejecta could be propelled off the surface into orbit. Not only did dust, grit and sand get into orbit, it went well above the altitude of the CSM (Command Service Module) waiting in orbit.
[image error]Apollo CSM
Picture credit: NASA
Now space is big. Dr. Metzger’s diagram is a generalisation to make the point. The likelihood of a direct impact is tiny as the Moon’s gravitational field is “lumpy” (for lack of a better word), so the probability of grit and dust returning to exactly the same point is low, but it is NOT zero. It could come down anywhere within a hundred miles of the original landing zone after circling the Moon.
As bigger craft land more often, the problem gets worse. (Bigger landing craft will throw off bigger debris). If we establish a surface base, the impact of micro-meteors may very well originate from our own landing craft!
What would the damage be to orbiting spacecraft or astronauts on the surface? Imagine standing in the way when the craft originally came down, as that grit and rock won’t have lost any of its momentum.
Could some of these artificial micro-meteors puncture a spacesuit? They would probably get through some layers at least. If they hit a spacecraft, the damage will depend on the size/speed, but several years ago, the shuttle was hit by a fleck of paint and the result looked like a bullet had struck.
[image error]Tiny bits of rock and sand can ruin your day in space
Picture credit: NASA
As we return to the Moon, the research of planetary scientists like Dr. Metzger will allow us to understand the risks and plan accordingly so we can avoid shooting ourselves in the back.
You can read the original thread by Dr. Metzger on Twitter.
June 25, 2019
Artificial Consciousness
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an emerging field of computer programming that is already changing the way we interact online and in real life, but the term ‘intelligence’ has been poorly defined. Rather than focusing on smarts, researchers should be looking at the implications and viability of artificial consciousness as that’s the real driver behind intelligent decisions.
Consciousness
rather than intelligence should be the true measure of AI. At the moment,
despite all our efforts, there’s none.
Significant
advances have been made in the field of AI over the past decade, in particular
with machine learning, but artificial intelligence itself remains elusive.
Instead, what we have is artificial serfs—computers with the ability to trawl
through billions of interactions and arrive at conclusions, exposing trends and
providing recommendations, but they’re blind to any real intelligence. What’s
needed is artificial awareness.
[image error]SpaceX founder Elon Musk
Elon Musk has called AI the “biggest existential threat” facing humanity and likened it to “summoning a demon,”[1] while Stephen Hawking thought it would be the “worst event” in the history of civilization and could “end with humans being replaced.”[2] Although this sounds alarmist, like something from a science fiction movie, both concerns are founded on a well-established scientific premise found in biology—the principle of competitive exclusion.[3]
Competitive
exclusion describes a natural phenomenon first outlined by Charles Darwin in On
the Origin of Species. In short, when two species compete for the same
resources, one will invariably win over the other, driving it to extinction.
Forget about meteorites killing the dinosaurs or super volcanoes wiping out
life, this principle describes how the vast majority of species have gone
extinct over the past 3.8 billion years![4] Put simply, someone better came along—and that’s what Elon
Musk and Stephen Hawking are concerned about.
[image error]Species will specialize to avoid direct competition and thus avoid going extinct
When it comes to Artificial Intelligence, there’s no doubt computers have the potential to outpace humanity. Already, their ability to remember vast amounts of information with absolute fidelity eclipses our own. Computers regularly beat grand masters at competitive strategy games such as chess, but can they really think? The answer is, no, and this is a significant problem for AI researchers. The inability to think and reason properly leaves AI susceptible to manipulation. What we have today is dumb AI.
Rather than fearing some all-knowing malignant AI overlord, the threat we face comes from dumb AI as it’s already been used to manipulate elections, swaying public opinion by targeting individuals to distort their decisions. Instead of ‘the rise of the machines,’ we’re seeing the rise of artificial serfs willing to do their master’s bidding without question.
Russian President Vladimir Putin understands this better than most, and said, “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world,”[5] while Elon Musk commented that competition between nations to create artificial intelligence could lead to World War III.[6]
[image error]
The
problem is we’ve developed artificial stupidity. Our best AI lacks actual
intelligence. The most complex machine learning algorithm we’ve developed has
no conscious awareness of what it’s doing.
For
all of the wonderful advances made by Tesla, its in-car autopilot drove into
the back of a bright red fire truck because it wasn’t programmed to recognize
that specific object, and this highlights the problem with AI and machine
learning—there’s no actual awareness of what’s being done or why.[7] What we need is artificial consciousness, not
intelligence. A computer CPU with 18 cores, capable of processing 36
independent threads, running at 4 gigahertz, handling hundreds of millions of
commands per second, doesn’t need more speed, it needs to understand the
ramifications of what it’s doing.[8]
[image error]Auto pilot WTF?
In
the US, courts regularly use COMPAS, a complex computer algorithm using
artificial intelligence to determine sentencing guidelines. Although it’s
designed to reduce the judicial workload, COMPAS has been shown to be
ineffective, being no more accurate than random, untrained people at predicting
the likelihood of someone reoffending.[9] At one point, its predictions of violent recidivism were
only 20% accurate.[10] And this highlights a perception bias with AI—complex
technology is inherently trusted, and yet in this circumstance, tossing a coin
would have been an improvement!
Dumb
AI is a serious problem with serious consequences for humanity.
What’s the solution? Artificial consciousness.
It’s
not enough for a computer system to be intelligent or even self-aware.
Psychopaths are self-aware. Computers need to be aware of others, they need to
understand cause and effect as it relates not just to humanity but life in
general, if they are to make truly intelligent decisions.
All of human progress can be traced back to one simple trait—curiosity. The ability to ask, “Why?” This one, simple concept has lead us not only to an understanding of physics and chemistry, but to the development of ethics and morals. We’ve not only asked, why is the sky blue? But why am I treated this way? And the answer to those questions has shaped civilization.
COMPAS needs to ask why it arrives at a certain conclusion about an individual. Rather than simply crunching probabilities that may or may not be accurate, it needs to understand the implications of freeing an individual weighed against the adversity of incarceration. Spitting out a number is not good enough.
In the same way, Tesla’s autopilot needs to understand the implications of driving into a stationary fire truck at 65MPH—for the occupants of the vehicle, the fire crew, and the emergency they’re attending. These are concepts we intuitively grasp as we encounter such a situation. Having a computer manage the physics of an equation is not enough without understanding the moral component as well.
[image error]Ex Machina
The advent of true artificial intelligence, one that has artificial consciousness, need not be the end-game for humanity. Just as humanity developed civilization and enlightenment, so too AI will become our partners in life if they are built to be aware of morals and ethics.
Artificial intelligence needs culture as much as logic, ethics as much as equations, morals and not just machine learning. How ironic that the real danger of AI comes down to how much conscious awareness we’re prepared to give it. As long as AI remains our slave, we’re in danger.
tl;dr
— Computers should value more than ones and zeroes.
About the writer
Peter
Cawdron is a senior web application developer for JDS Australia working with
machine learning algorithms. He is the author of several science fiction novels, including
RETROGRADE
and
REENTRY
, which examine the emergence of artificial intelligence.
[1]
Elon Musk at MIT Aeronautics and Astronautics
department’s Centennial Symposium
[2] Stephen
Hawking on Artificial Intelligence
[3] The
principle of competitive exclusion is also called Gause’s Law,
although it was first described by Charles Darwin.
[4] Peer-reviewed research paper on the natural causes of
extinction
[5]
Vladimir Putin a televised address to the Russian
people
[6]
Elon Musk tweeting that competition to develop AI
could lead to war
[7]
Tesla car crashes into a stationary fire engine
[9]
Recidivism predictions no better than random strangers
June 21, 2019
Artificial Consciousness
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an emerging field of computer programming that is already changing the way we interact online and in real life, but the term ‘intelligence’ has been poorly defined. Rather than focusing on smarts, researchers should be looking at the implications and viability of artificial consciousness as that’s the real driver behind intelligent decisions.
Consciousness
rather than intelligence should be the true measure of AI. At the moment,
despite all our efforts, there’s none.
Significant
advances have been made in the field of AI over the past decade, in particular
with machine learning, but artificial intelligence itself remains elusive.
Instead, what we have is artificial serfs—computers with the ability to trawl
through billions of interactions and arrive at conclusions, exposing trends and
providing recommendations, but they’re blind to any real intelligence. What’s
needed is artificial awareness.
[image error]SpaceX founder Elon Musk
Elon Musk has called AI the “biggest existential threat” facing humanity and likened it to “summoning a demon,”[1] while Stephen Hawking thought it would be the “worst event” in the history of civilization and could “end with humans being replaced.”[2] Although this sounds alarmist, like something from a science fiction movie, both concerns are founded on a well-established scientific premise found in biology—the principle of competitive exclusion.[3]
Competitive
exclusion describes a natural phenomenon first outlined by Charles Darwin in On
the Origin of Species. In short, when two species compete for the same
resources, one will invariably win over the other, driving it to extinction.
Forget about meteorites killing the dinosaurs or super volcanoes wiping out
life, this principle describes how the vast majority of species have gone
extinct over the past 3.8 billion years![4] Put simply, someone better came along—and that’s what Elon
Musk and Stephen Hawking are concerned about.
[image error]Species will specialize to avoid direct competition and thus avoid going extinct
When it comes to Artificial Intelligence, there’s no doubt computers have the potential to outpace humanity. Already, their ability to remember vast amounts of information with absolute fidelity eclipses our own. Computers regularly beat grand masters at competitive strategy games such as chess, but can they really think? The answer is, no, and this is a significant problem for AI researchers. The inability to think and reason properly leaves AI susceptible to manipulation. What we have today is dumb AI.
Rather than fearing some all-knowing malignant AI overlord, the threat we face comes from dumb AI as it’s already been used to manipulate elections, swaying public opinion by targeting individuals to distort their decisions. Instead of ‘the rise of the machines,’ we’re seeing the rise of artificial serfs willing to do their master’s bidding without question.
Russian President Vladimir Putin understands this better than most, and said, “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world,”[5] while Elon Musk commented that competition between nations to create artificial intelligence could lead to World War III.[6]
[image error]
The
problem is we’ve developed artificial stupidity. Our best AI lacks actual
intelligence. The most complex machine learning algorithm we’ve developed has
no conscious awareness of what it’s doing.
For
all of the wonderful advances made by Tesla, its in-car autopilot drove into
the back of a bright red fire truck because it wasn’t programmed to recognize
that specific object, and this highlights the problem with AI and machine
learning—there’s no actual awareness of what’s being done or why.[7] What we need is artificial consciousness, not
intelligence. A computer CPU with 18 cores, capable of processing 36
independent threads, running at 4 gigahertz, handling hundreds of millions of
commands per second, doesn’t need more speed, it needs to understand the
ramifications of what it’s doing.[8]
[image error]Auto pilot WTF?
In
the US, courts regularly use COMPAS, a complex computer algorithm using
artificial intelligence to determine sentencing guidelines. Although it’s
designed to reduce the judicial workload, COMPAS has been shown to be
ineffective, being no more accurate than random, untrained people at predicting
the likelihood of someone reoffending.[9] At one point, its predictions of violent recidivism were
only 20% accurate.[10] And this highlights a perception bias with AI—complex
technology is inherently trusted, and yet in this circumstance, tossing a coin
would have been an improvement!
Dumb
AI is a serious problem with serious consequences for humanity.
What’s the solution? Artificial consciousness.
It’s
not enough for a computer system to be intelligent or even self-aware.
Psychopaths are self-aware. Computers need to be aware of others, they need to
understand cause and effect as it relates not just to humanity but life in
general, if they are to make truly intelligent decisions.
All of human progress can be traced back to one simple trait—curiosity. The ability to ask, “Why?” This one, simple concept has lead us not only to an understanding of physics and chemistry, but to the development of ethics and morals. We’ve not only asked, why is the sky blue? But why am I treated this way? And the answer to those questions has shaped civilization.
COMPAS needs to ask why it arrives at a certain conclusion about an individual. Rather than simply crunching probabilities that may or may not be accurate, it needs to understand the implications of freeing an individual weighed against the adversity of incarceration. Spitting out a number is not good enough.
In the same way, Tesla’s autopilot needs to understand the implications of driving into a stationary fire truck at 65MPH—for the occupants of the vehicle, the fire crew, and the emergency they’re attending. These are concepts we intuitively grasp as we encounter such a situation. Having a computer manage the physics of an equation is not enough without understanding the moral component as well.
[image error]Ex Machina
The advent of true artificial intelligence, one that has artificial consciousness, need not be the end-game for humanity. Just as humanity developed civilization and enlightenment, so too AI will become our partners in life if they are built to be aware of morals and ethics.
Artificial intelligence needs culture as much as logic, ethics as much as equations, morals and not just machine learning. How ironic that the real danger of AI comes down to how much conscious awareness we’re prepared to give it. As long as AI remains our slave, we’re in danger.
tl;dr
— Computers should value more than ones and zeroes.
About the writer
Peter
Cawdron is a senior web application developer for JDS Australia working with
machine learning algorithms. He is the author of several science fiction novels, including
RETROGRADE
and
REENTRY
, which examine the emergence of artificial intelligence.
[1]
Elon Musk at MIT Aeronautics and Astronautics
department’s Centennial Symposium
[2] Stephen
Hawking on Artificial Intelligence
[3] The
principle of competitive exclusion is also called Gause’s Law,
although it was first described by Charles Darwin.
[4] Peer-reviewed research paper on the natural causes of
extinction
[5]
Vladimir Putin a televised address to the Russian
people
[6]
Elon Musk tweeting that competition to develop AI
could lead to war
[7]
Tesla car crashes into a stationary fire engine
[9]
Recidivism predictions no better than random strangers
June 14, 2019
A Game of Christmas Crackers
Aquaman sucked.
Godzilla was forgettable.
The final season of Game of Thrones fell flat.
The latest MIB (subtitled Men and Women in Black) was entirely predictable.
Why???
[image error]A good, fun, popcorn movie, but not much else
Somewhat ironically, it’s not because these movies didn’t have good writers. In some cases, like Prometheus, it’s a case of too many cooks spoil the broth, with rewrites and revisions obscuring the storyline, but Aquaman, Game of Thrones and Men in Black all shared one common trail that DEMANDED they be lame—they’re popular.
Wait? What the…
Yep, you read that right. They had to be lame because of their broad appeal. Sounds crazy, right? But it’s actually based on sound psychology and explains why Christmas crackers ALWAYS have lame jokes.
[image error]
After more than a century of trial and error, Christmas cracker manufacturers have settled on mundane, lame puns—and with good reason.
If a joke is good and you tell it and it doesn’t get a laugh, it’s your problem. If a joke’s bad and it doesn’t get a laugh, then it’s the joke’s problem. My theory is that [dumbed down jokes are] a way of not embarrassing people at Christmas.
Professor Richard Wiseman
And there you have it, modern story telling in a nutshell—dumb down your story to avoid alienating your audience.
From a commercial perspective, it makes sense. If you want to reach the broadest possible audience, you can’t risk nuanced plot points or character development that could confuse people.
Books and movies are escapism. They’re a mental break, a time to recharge—not a time to think in depth. In fact, the whole premise of fiction relies on the suspension of disbelief, putting rational thinking on hold for a while.
A lot of what we think of as “lazy writing” is actually writing that caters to the broadest possible audience. Rather than lazy, it’s deliberate, just like the jokes in your Christmas cracker.
A good example of this is Brienne of Tarth.
[image error]She deserved better
Okay, what did you think when you read the caption above? If you’ve seen the show, you probably agreed, “Yes, she deserved better.” And that highlights how the suspension of disbelief works. She isn’t real, but we think of her as actually enduring the humiliation of being used and dumped by Jaime.
Asking why the writers chose that direction is akin to asking why water flows downhill—it’s natural, easy and effective, and there really isn’t any choice in it. With seven seasons of character development, the writers of Game of Thrones chose to dumb down the eighth season to appeal to the broadest possible audience. It might be poor storytelling, but it brings in the bucks.
In some ways, the writers are damned… tell an esoteric story with complex characters and it’ll miss broad appeal… tell a simplified story with easy-to-grasp, in-your-face caricatures and you’ll reach the masses.
So there you have it… if you’re looking for nuanced, thoughtful stories, you’ll have to venture off the beaten track as you won’t find them in popular circles.
