Thomas E. Ricks's Blog, page 164

A legless soldier's request: Look at me!

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While Tom Ricks is away from his blog, he has selected a
few of his favorite posts to re-run. We will be posting a few every day until
he returns. This originally ran on September 26, 2011.

"I would want people to treat us as
they treat themselves. Not look down on us because we're injured," Artem
Lazukin tells
the Oregonian's Mike Francis. "When I've been around people, I've seen
them look away. Like I'm not there."

A plea to Gen. Wes Clark: Please get off the TV before you do even more damage

By "Hunter"

Best Defense TV
reviewer

I'm embarrassed to
admit, I recently watched a long portion of the second episode of the new "reality" TV show Stars Earn Stripes.
The premise of the show is that eight D-list "celebrities" -- predominately reality TV
returnees, washed up actors, and athletes -- train with former U.S. military servicemembers and first responders and take part in "missions"
to demonstrate their prowess and nominally learn/appreciate something about
military life. There's also a Survivor element to the "contest" where a
non-performing team is dismissed each episode. The "stripes" the remaining
teams earn equate to $10,000 donations to service-oriented charities like the
Wounded Warrior Project and their ilk. NBC claims the show will "pay homage to the men and women who serve in
the U.S. armed forces."

I found the program
lame and somewhat sad. Anyone with military experience would laugh at the
canned explosions -- M203 rounds do not blow up like that, especially when the
blue training round lands under rather than in the target. ( I'm looking at you,
Picabo Street.) The "tasks" that the "celebs" were charged to execute
were laughable. Indeed, the marksmanship demonstrated (even by the military
professionals) wasn't that impressive given the high powered rifle sights,
supported firing positions, and short distances to the target.



But the real kickers were the unconvincing hostess Samantha Harris -- who previously co-hosted Dancing
with the Stars, wearing sexy combat chic clothing that would make the Scud
Stud blush, and General (Retired) Wesley Clark -- the opportunist flag officer
and onetime presidential candidate everyone loves to hate. The two co-hosts,
respectively, bat their eyes and look grim and try to sell the concept as a
credit to the troops, but the show devolves "combat" down to a series of Darby Queen obstacles with embedded squibs and targets that don't shoot back.



How sad to see General Clark leering over a fake TV screen (badly overlaid on a
circular table) in a fake command post, giving orders and commentary with fake
gravitas. But Clark is well known for narcissism and never finding a camera he
didn't love. The late David Hackworth once called Wes Clark a Perfumed Prince
-- and later retracted his comment -- but this made-for-TV endeavor seems to
validate the moniker.

What's most
worrisome about this show is that it is a show, sold as entertainment. A squad
of Nobel laureates has already criticized the program calling Stars Earn Stripes a "sanitation of
war ... likening it to an athletic competition." They called for the show's
cancellation stating: "It is our belief that this program pays homage to
no one anywhere and continues and expands on an inglorious tradition of
glorifying war and armed violence. Real war is down in the dirt deadly. People
-- military and civilians --die in ways that are anything but
entertaining."

I have to agree with
their sentiment, especially given the ham-handed nature of the exercises.
There's no real danger, and no real consequences. I'm sure the celebs retire to
their Hollywood mansions after each camera shoot, whereas, somewhere in
Afghanistan, PFC "Snuffy" finishes his real "shoot" and retires to his tent
built for 6-8 of his closest squadmates. Surprising no one, I hope, there's no
reality in this reality TV. Even if this show was a well-meaning effort to
bridge an increasing civil-military divide (as Clark claims), it is so poorly executed that it marginalizes the efforts of U.S.
troops in the field. That's what makes Clark's involvement all the more
worrisome. The public doesn't know that Clark is not overly respected within
the ranks, and likely accepts his involvement as a military stamp of approval.

The Army Profession campaign has spent almost two years trying to discern the impact of a decade of
war on the profession. One of the ideas the campaign members have been
considering is the concept of a "non-acting professional." In this case, they
have been trying to analyze the role of the military retiree (p. 24) within the profession. This need arose as many general officers
(e.g. Clark and Honore) took to the papers and the airwaves commenting on
military operations and politics (e.g. Newbold, Batiste) from the safety of their retirement. The ongoing concern remains
allowing for the proper balance of dissent, First Amendment rights and the role
of former government servants -- who, it should be remembered, remain subject
to recall to active service. This is a continuing discussion that will not be
resolved anytime soon.

Clark's latest TV
endeavor is more embarrassing than harmful, and likely grazes but does not fall
within the area of concern which the Army Campaign is exploring. But I do think
Stars Earns Stripes undermines the hard work of our servicemembers around the
globe, by turning combat-lite into a game show. The fact that the show is
giving money to veterans groups doesn't redeem it in the least.

The best way to get
rid of such a show is not to watch it. Unfortunately, an estimated 5.4 million
Americans watched the Stars Earns Stripes first episode. We're rapidly headed
towards the world hypothesized in Mike Judge's Idiocracy, where the top TV show was Oww, my balls. [Note: Another reality TV show, this season's America's Got Talent, actually featured a segment that easily could have been titled Oww, my
balls].The quality of what passes for entertainment is worrisome and getting
worse.

I've often argued
for a Sunday primetime reality TV show (probably on the fourth place network),
filming soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines with all their glory (and warts)
in theater. Each week would spotlight a different unit, in a different place --
not unlike news reels from World War II. If it was honestly handled, I think
that would be a hit show that really better communicates what combat and
service means while drawing some much needed attention to the troopers in the
field. That would also be a worthwhile bridging effort for that civil-military
divide we are always so concerned about. I'll keep waiting; meanwhile, I'll hope
that Clark gets his face off of TV and Stars Earns Stripes goes AWOL.

"Hunter" is an Army
officer. The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect
the official views of the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense, the federal
government, the College of Cardinals, the bullpen of the Washington Nationals,
or "The Itchy and Scratchy Show." Then again, they might. Especially the
bullpen guys.

How many dissidents has Wikileaks fingered for Third World despots?

While Tom Ricks is away from his blog, he has selected a few of his
favorite posts to re-run. We will be posting a few every day until he
returns. This originally ran on September 19, 2011.

That might be the question a year
from now, as Third World dictators arrest those identified in diplomatic cables
as talking to representatives of the U.S. government. See Joshua Keating's
of the state of play. He notes that two Zimbabwean generals and an Ethiopian
journalist already are in the hot seat.

So yeah, I think Wikileaks has
been wildly irresponsible. And people who helped it should probably be ashamed
of themselves. Maybe tithe 10 percent of your income to Amnesty International
as penance.  

Annals of sucky deployments: The life of a major marooned in southern Iraq

While Tom Ricks is away from his blog, he has selected a
few of his favorite posts to re-run. We will be posting a few every day until
he returns. This originally ran on September 21, 2011.

Army Maj. Jayson Stewart summarizes
his 2008 tour of duty as an advisor to a unit of the Iraqi border patrol that
actually was based more than 40 miles away from him. "There was a period there
where I didn't get out for four months, and I was only able to entice them to
come and see me probably once every two to three weeks."

I see this maybe as a Tom Hanks
movie. Or John Candy, if he were still with us.

I hope that nobody else has to go
through that same experience, because it did suck. I was able to build my own
little stadium seating inside one of the more concrete rooms and turned one of
my Armed Forces Network receivers and hooked it up to the one-eyed monster and
put it on a seven-foot by eight-foot screen and was able to watch football,
because I couldn't go anywhere and I couldn't do anything.

I think that fits my definition of
hell: Isolated in southern Iraq with nothing to do and a year to do it in.

The narrowness of War College papers

By
John Fox

Best
Defense guest columnist

I was interested to
re-read your re-posting of thoughts on Army War
College papers. You noted the lack of papers on wars
and battles that
didn't involve the United States. You certainly
have a point -- for
example, as a professor at the AWC discussing
Yorktown, I used to ask
students how many of them had heard of the Battle
of the Capes, the
French-British naval battle that prevented the
Royal Navy from
rescuing the British force at Yorktown, and thus
ensuring Washington's
and Rochambeau's victory. None (repeat none),
including the Navy
students, had ever heard of it.

On the other hand, in the elective I taught,
"Winning the Battles,
Losing the War," students often chose
non-U.S. wars to analyze from the
point of view of political aims and military
strategy. Especially
popular ones (apart from Thucydides and Xenophon, which they had to
study whether they wanted to or not) were
Operation Peace for Galilee
(1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon) and the Third
Punic War. One
(American) student analyzed the American Revolutionary War from the
British point of view.

But the overall orientation of students toward
American wars does
speak of a certain insularity. I believe the problem
is even more
acute, as I often found that students'
conceptual world did not extend
beyond the Geographical Combatant Command. A
frequent question (and
topic for papers) was "Why don't other
agencies just establish
regional headquarters at GCCs in order to make
it easier for the GCCs
to coordinate with them?" Those students
with experience at OSD or on
the Joint Staff had a broader point of view and
a better understanding
that DoD is more than just a collection of GCCs,
but these students
were very few.

Was John F. Kennedy the flat-out absolute worst U.S. president of the 20th century?

While Tom Ricks is away from his blog, he has selected a few of his
favorite posts to re-run. We will be posting a few every day until he
returns. This originally ran on July 15, 2011.

As I studied the Vietnam war over the last 14 months, I
began to think that John
F. Kennedy probably was the worst American president of the previous century.

In retrospect, he spent his 35 months in the White House
stumbling from crisis to fiasco. He came into office and okayed the Bay of Pigs
invasion. Then he went to a Vienna summit conference and got his clock cleaned
by Khrushchev. That led to, among other things, the Cuban missile crisis and a
whiff of nuclear apocalypse.

Looming over it all is the American descent into Vietnam.
The assassination of Vietnam's President Diem on Kennedy's watch may have been
one of the two biggest mistakes of the war there. (The other was the decision
to wage a war of attrition on the unexamined assumption that Hanoi would buckle
under the pain.) I don't buy the theory promulgated by Robert McNamara and
others that Kennedy would have kept U.S. troops out. Sure, Kennedy wanted out
of Vietnam -- just like Lyndon Johnson wanted out a few years later: We'll
scale down our presence after victory is secure. And much more than
Johnson, Kennedy was influenced by General Maxwell Taylor, who I suspect had
been looking for a "small war" mission for the Army for several years.
Indochina looked like a peachy place for that -- warmer than Korea, and farther
from Russia.

(As a side note, there's another coup that JFK supported
earlier in 1963: the Baathist
one in Iraq that chucked out a pro-Soviet general. Events in subsequent
decades obviously are not Kennedy's fault, but it still is interesting to look
at the documents. Here's a State Department sitrep
from, of all dates, Nov. 21, 1963: "Initial appraisal cabinet named November 20
is that it contains some moderate Baathis. Of twenty-one ministers, seven are
holdovers from previous cabinet, thirteen are civilians, four are from moderate
Shabib-Jawad faction of Baath (Defense --
Tikriti; Communications -- Abd al-Latif; Education -- Jawari; Health -- Mustafa)
and a number of technician-type civil servants." Did you notice the name of
that defense minister? I think this might have been Saddam Hussein's uncle.)

Anyway, I think his track record kind of makes even old
Herbert Hoover look good.

Tom Ricks, was born in Massachusetts and is the grandson and
great-grandson of Democratic politicians there.

Is climate change the biggest national security challenge we are facing?

While Tom Ricks is away from his blog, he has selected a few of his
favorite posts to re-run. We will be posting a few every day until he
returns. This originally ran on July 29,2011.

By Eric Hammel

Best Defense guest columnist

Over the past year, I've worked the vast security implications of global climate change into a few comments on The Best Defense,
but they haven't taken hold. I cannot fathom the prevailing so-what
attitude as the FEMA-grade weather disasters mount toward becoming
serial and routine occurrences. It's here now, for all to see.

Tens -- perhaps hundreds -- of millions of heat, drought, flood, and
famine refugees are probably going to be shaken loose within a decade.
(Some estimates say half of humanity -- 3,000,000,000 people -- will
have to move or die just from heat-related causes.) Thanks to topsoil
erosion via drought and helped along by deadly, unstoppable tornado
clusters and unlivable ambient temperatures, the bulk of farming in
North America will shift northward and most likely will become
restricted to a narrower band in the upper Midwest and on into higher
Canadian latitudes-assuming there is sufficient rainfall there.
Sea-level rise from melting glaciers on land will soon be poised to
shake loose uncountable refugees from drowned coastal regions, where
most of the world's people live. If the warm North Atlantic conveyor
current is halted or recedes southward due to desalinization via the
Greenland freshwater ice melt, the Canadian Maritimes, New England, and
northwestern Europe will probably experience unbelievable winters and
might (this is counterintuitive) freeze over.

Global famine is going to force the use of our military as a police
force organized to feed unknowable masses of people (until cold reality
sets in as reserve food stocks evaporate). I believe that North
America's first up-close brush with famine-motivated mass migration will
take place in northern Mexico and on into the U.S. border states.
(Refugees fleeing in the wake of the collapse of Mexico's central
government could precede drought- and heat-related dislocations. Are we
prepared to handle such a dress rehearsal?)

The only force on Earth with the inherent capability to police, process,
house, feed, and move refugees on a mass scale is the U.S. military,
but, though its reach is global, its capacity and stamina are
nonetheless limited, probably to one or two major disasters at a time,
not the overlapping rolling meta-disaster climatologists predict.
(Remember, the only components of the Katrina effort that worked at all
were the military responses, beginning with Coast Guard helicopters.)

The implications for military use alone in the looming weather-related
crises are mind-boggling, but no one appears to want to face up to them
with an action plan, a doctrine, a list of precepts. I find it worrying
to the nth degree that there is absolutely no public discussion. Have
the relevant agencies studied it all already-and thrown up their hands? I
already know from a series of phone calls to relevant local and state
agencies that there is no actual integrated plan in place to respond to
high-impact earthquakes in major California population centers. The
"plan" is to play it as it lays. And I sincerely doubt that a repeat of
Katrina would be met with an effective plan based on lessons learned.

Can we bring this out of the shadows, and least in this venue?

Eric Hammel has written more books about the U.S. military in Vietnam, Korea and World War II than most people have read.

Gen. Hertling’s trip report: Security and conflict in the Caucasus region, not frozen

By Lt. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, US Army

Best Defense guest columnist

The Caucasus -- that historical causeway
of conflict between Europe and the Middle East -- remains a complicated tangle
of security concerns. Ethnic tensions still affect long standing territorial
disputes, internally displaced indigenous people align with or oppose powerful
diasporas, and an increasing nouveau riche -- an oil-fueled minority upper class
-- is growing in an area once known only for desperate poverty.

While the Minsk Group spearheads the
OSCE's efforts to find a political solution to the conflict in and around
Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan both remain frustrated with the lack
of political resolve; military leaders on both sides proudly and unjustifiably
claim they could "settle it" quickly. The recent Georgian experience with
Russia has left significant cross-border scars that will likely not heal
anytime soon, especially as Georgia desperately seeks NATO membership and
European acceptance. The spider-web relations between Iran and Israel with many
of those in this region confuses even the experts; and the border between
Turkey and many of her allies -- especially Armenia -- are subject to political
resolution of multi-generational disputes between those two countries.

All of these factors exist in a crucible
surrounded on three sides by Turkey, Iran, and Russia. The potential for
conflict is considered so plausible and the issues related to the interaction
so confusing that a few years ago the U.S. Army's Training and Doctrine Command
developed scenarios linked to the Caucasus to help prepare Majors for military
contingencies. The U.S. Army's Command and General Staff College at Fort
Leavenworth uses the "GAAT" (Georgia-Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey) exercise as a
thread of continuity throughout the course. Understandably there is no right or
wrong answers to any of the questions posed to young field grade officers in
the course, but the underlying conflict scenarios meet the requirement to
analyze and exercise an extremely complex Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental
and Multinational resolution.

During a recent U.S. Army Europe
(USAREUR) command visit to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, my young aide de
camp -- a recent graduate of Leavenworth -- pronounced after accompanying me that
she wished she had visited these countries before participating in "the GAAT." After
observing the meetings with the regions' visionary political leadership, and
seeing the capabilities of the emerging non-conscript militaries and the unique
differences between the younger generation of professional leaders and the
older generation of Soviet-trained generals, she proclaimed: "this is very
different from what I learned in the classrooms at Leavenworth, Kansas."[[BREAK]]

There were some tensions, to be sure. But
there was also reason for optimism.

European Command's strategy of Theater
Security Cooperation -- and USAREUR's contribution as part of that strategy in
training and exercising with the militaries and engaging with military and
political leaders -- is bearing significant results. The four nations that make
up "the GAAT" are integrating forces in NATO out of theater and peacekeeping
operations in places like Afghanistan and Kosovo, and the potential for
peaceful management of the region's substantial security challenges is
improving.

Georgia has participated in ISAF since
2005 and has provided a caveat-free battalion under U.S. command since 2010.
This contribution is set to double in October of this year. The Georgian
military leadership is now requesting USAREUR's support to train a
brigade-sized command and control element for their increasingly capable and
dramatically more professional force. Armenia has recently volunteered to send
forces to the continuing Kosovo peacekeeping operation under U.S. command,
after their partnership deployment with Greece ended due to the fiscal crisis
in that country. Even while engaged in the poorly-named "frozen conflict" of
Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K), both Armenia and Azerbaijan deploy company-sized
elements to Afghanistan, under German and Turkish commands, respectively.
Indeed, the fact that Azerbaijan and Armenia have both created brigade-sized peacekeeping
and NATO-compatible units is an extremely positive development. Remarkably,
both nations have developed these forces as a distinct military branch for the
express purpose of participating in multinational operations. These units,
which are specifically non-aligned with operations in N-K conflict, are largely
manned by professional soldiers, not conscripts, and are led by
English-speaking, western-trained officers. At a glance during my visit, they
also appear better trained than line forces occupying positions along the NK
line-of-contact.

The infusion of values and the concept
of a "profession of arms" are taking hold in the younger elements of the
Georgian, Armenian, and Azerbaijani officer corps, who are often trained in the
west through the Individual Military Education and Training (IMET) program. The
differences between these younger leaders -- many of whom have already taken
command in key positions -- and the older Soviet-trained generals are palpable.
In Georgia, for example, the Chief of the Army is exceedingly young, but in two
years of engagement I have watched him grow into a mature and dedicated leader
of his relatively small Army. The younger Battalion and Brigade Commanders in
Armenia and Azerbaijan -- many of whom received education at the Army's War
College at Carlisle or at Leavenworth -- also exhibit a professional character
found in more advanced security forces. Several of these Armies are also
focusing on growing a professional NCO corps; this is one of the more
significant signs of emerging and quantifiable progress. The younger, visionary
political leaders know these aspects of a professional force are critical for
further democratization and inclusion in European and NATO organizations.

As the world's security focus shifts
away from ISAF, and the National Security Strategy of the U.S. "rebalances"
toward the Pacific, USAREUR continues to look at the Caucasus countries in the
same way that we view the others that make up the European Area of
Responsibility; as partners in future coalitions.

The forward presence of U.S. forces in
various parts of the world is critical to an expansion of security cooperation
and partner capacity building. Our forward presence in Europe eliminates the
tyranny of distance, and it significantly enables realistic training and
exercises with security forces of all different nations. But more than that,
our presence builds trust; something that rotational forces cannot do to the
same degree as those who share the continent. All these factors are necessary
elements in reassuring political and military officials that there is a
peaceful solution to regional tensions, and that other security challenges are
best met working closely -- and daily -- with regional allies. Forward presence
reinforces the reality that the United States is a committed partner in
maintaining regional security.

Having seen the potential for conflict,
and the continued methods of resolving conflict, I am excited about the future
of security and conflict resolution in the Caucuses. That optimism is borne out
by the progress made by Georgian, Armenian and Azeri security forces. Each
country is, in different capacities, building a base of military
professionalism and reform, and is ensuring a more peaceful security for their
nations.

The Caucasus' position as a
geographical, cultural, and political epicenter means that movements -positive
and negative -- in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan reverberate well beyond the
local region. With America's continued support, the Caucuses will remain a
source of stable, reliable, interoperable partners who are the foundation of
future regional and global security.

Lieutenant
General Mark Hertling is the current Commanding General, U.S. Army Europe and
Seventh Army, where he is responsible for training U.S. Army Soldiers and units
for Contingency and Full Spectrum Operations, enhancing Theater Security
Cooperation, and Building Partner Capacity with 51 allied nations that are part
of the European area of operation. Prior to this posting, he served as the DCG
for Initial Military Training at TRADOC and previous to that the Commander of
the 1st Armored Division, where the unit was deployed to Northern Iraq as Task
Force Iron.

Iraq 2011: Jet skiing the Triangle of Death, listening to Bee Gee songs -- and pondering what comes next

While Tom Ricks is away from his blog, he has selected a few of his favorite posts to re-run. We will be posting a few every day until he returns. This originally ran on June 21,2011.

On a morning when
news comes of more
bombings in south-central Iraq, here is an overview from Lady Emma Sky, who
knows as much about Iraqi politics as a foreigner can. Her comments on Turkey
balancing Iran
in Iraq especially interested me, as did the speculation about whether an
overthrow of the jerks running Syria might lead to further fragmentation in
Iraq. And keep in mind that Iran
remains mighty
interesting.

By Emma Sky

Best Defense roving
Middle East correspondent

The taxi driver to
Beirut airport tells me that yom
al-qiyama (the day of judgment) is approaching. There will be a big
explosion soon -- a very big explosion. The revolutions sweeping the Arab World
are not good. Islamic parties will come to power everywhere. There will be no
more Christians left in the Middle East. Believe me, believe me, he insists. In
anticipation, he will make the Hajj to Mecca this year, inshallah. I tell him that I am traveling to Iraq as a tourist. The
look he gives me in the rear view mirror says it all: He thinks I am crazy.

I am heading back to
Iraq nine months after I left my job as Political Advisor to the Commanding
General of U.S. Forces Iraq. Earlier this year, a Sheikh emailed me from his
iPad, "Miss Emma we miss you. You must come visit us as a guest. You will
stay with me. And you will have no power!" I am excited and nervous. The
plane is about a third full. I am the only foreigner. I look around at my
fellow passengers. I wonder who they are and whether they bear a grudge for something
we might have done.

The flight is one
and a half hours long. I read and doze. As we approach Iraq, I look out of the
window. The sky is full of sand and visibility is poor. But I can make out the
Euphrates below. Land of the two rivers, I am coming back. [[BREAK]]

I do not have an
Iraqi visa. Visas issued in Iraqi Embassies abroad are not recognized by
Baghdad airport. I have a letter from an Iraqi General in the Ministry of
Interior, complete with a signature and stamp. In the airport, I present my
passport and letter, fill out a form, pay $80, and receive a visa within 15
minutes. I collect my bag. I am through. I want to reach down and touch the
ground, this land that has soaked up so much blood over the years -- ours and
theirs.

I spot the Fixer. We
grin at each other as we shake hands. Soon we are in his car speeding down the
airport road -- that we called Route Irish -- towards the Green Zone. I can't
see any Americans. Not on the roads, not on the checkpoints. Iraq looks normal
- for Iraq. What is new? What has changed? The situation is not good, he tells
me. The government is bad. Too many assassinations. We laugh and chat like old
friends. The Fixer, who used to 'smuggle' me out of the Green Zone is now "smuggling"
me back in. Leave it to me, he says, smiling and patting his chest with his
hand.

Before long, I am
sitting with my Iraqi hosts in their home, catching up with their news. I take
a dip in their pool. It is 46 degrees (Centigrade). The brown of the
sand-filled sky is broken by flashes of grey, white and yellow lightening.
Later in the evening, the rolls of thunder are replaced by the thuds of mortars
targeting the U.S. Embassy.

*

Sitting in the back
of the car wearing abaya and hijab, I drive south towards Karbala
with two young Iraqi army guys, who are both from Baghdad and Shia. In the
national elections last year one voted for Maliki to be Prime Minister, the
other voted for Allawi as he wanted a secular man to lead Iraq. They both agree
that life was better under Saddam, that there was more security before, people
could travel anywhere safely, gas was cheaper, salaries went further, there was
no "Sunni-Shia." They tell me that people are very upset with public
services, especially electricity, but are too scared to demonstrate. No one
likes living under occupation, but people are also worried that the situation
might deteriorate if the Americans leave. They both stress that Jaish al-Mahdi
is not the right way.

We drive for an hour
southwards. We pass numerous checkpoints. No one checks my papers. I am the
invisible woman in Islamic dress. It is late so the roads are not busy.
Finally, we turn off the main road, down a track, through an orchard, and
arrive at a house on the banks of the Euphrates where I meet up with my Iraqi
friend, and he introduces me to his companions, male and female. Tables are
arranged and big trays of food emerge from the house. Fatoush salad. Maqluba --
chicken and rice. We stuff our faces. I sit in a swing chair, chatting with my
friend, who talks about his experiences of working with the U.S. military. They
have big hearts he tells me, but they are naïve. They don't know how to do
contracting. They spent lots of money, but so much was wasted. They did not
know who was good and who was bad. Many projects were not implemented well.
Others were not sustainable. The Brits last century left us with railways,
roads and bridges. What have the Americans left us? My friend tells me about
his companions, what they do and how he knows them. When I ask them where they
are from, I discover that one woman is a Kurd who was born and bred in Baghdad,
two are Sunnis, and the others are Shia, and all have relatives of different
sects. We are Iraqis, they tell me.

It is midnight. I
lie back on the swing chair, wrap myself up in a blanket and fall asleep on the
banks of the river. My peace is rudely interrupted at 2 a.m. by a massive
explosion which shakes the ground. For a moment, I wonder if we are being
attacked. Then I speculate that perhaps there are still some Americans on a
nearby base. I don't move and quickly fall back to sleep.

I awake at 5 a.m.
when the sun rises, and see a fisherman pass in a small boat. I doze back to
sleep until I awake again from the heat of the sun. The caretaker has also
slept outside. He brings me tea. He tells me he has been guarding me through
the night, making sure I am safe, and keeping the dogs -- which look like
wolves -- away from me. I thank him. He chats about the river. The Americans
had bases here. Our people attacked them. Gangs. The Americans did not know who
was good and who bad. One time, he was up a palm tree picking dates when
Americans shot at him. He giggles as he recounts how he fell out of the tree.
Another time, he approached an U.S. checkpoint and they demanded he take off
his top, then his pants, then his underwear. They made him walk stark naked.
Another time, he thought gangs were breaking into the plantation so he opened
fire. In fact, it was American soldiers and he wounded one. The Americans
arrested him and sent him to Bucca prison near Basra. The caretaker tells me
about his life today. At home he only has a few hours of electricity a day. The
electricity comes on for one hour and then goes off for four hours. During the
hour that it is on, he makes his room as cold as possible. It is very difficult
for people. They sleep out on the roofs. He talks about the "time of the
British," and the "time of Saddam." He has already consigned the
American period to history.

I climb up on the
jet ski and speed up the Euphrates. The dust of the previous day has cleared
and the sky is brilliant blue. I wave to people on the banks and they wave
back. I pass the Iskandriyya power station which once served as a U.S. base.
Further up to the left is Jurf as-Sakr. The Americans used to called this area
the "Triangle of Death" due to the levels of violence. I remember landing by
helicopter on numerous occasions on visits to the troops, receiving briefings
of insurgents moving down the river. Now it is me on the river, and the U.S.
bases have gone. I jump off the jet ski into the water and swim back down the
river, floating with the current.

Out the back of the
house, surrounded by sheep and chickens, the Caretaker is busy barbequing a
fish that the fisherman brought us. My friend gutted it earlier, washing it in
the river and then opening it up in half to put under the grill. One of the
women places the 'masgoof' on a tray,
and brings it out to the table on the river bank. We stand around, eating the
fish with our fingers, and dipping freshly baked bread into the salads. It is
delicious.

* 

I am invited to an
Armenian family for lunch. They live in part of Baghdad which used to be a
Jewish area. Before the founding of the State of Israel, over 130,000 Jews
lived in Iraq. In fact, the 1917 census put the Jewish population of Baghdad at
40 percent. The Armenian family bought the house in 1954. On the walls are hung
rifles, hand-guns, tapestries. Against a long wall, shelves are crammed with
books. My friend lives here with his wife and son, and his parents. His mother,
an elegant well-dressed woman, tells me of how the Armenians escaped to Iraq as
refugees from the genocide in Turkey. Many Armenians were taken in by Arab
tribes. The Arabs were so kind and generous to us, bringing up orphans as their
own children. We will always remember how good they were to us. We will never
forgive Turkey. The number of Armenians in Iraq has halved since 2003, and is
now down to around 10,000. She believes this is the end of Christians in Iraq.
She laments that so many are leaving for the United States. What will they find
there? Life may be easier, but here in Iraq is where we have our families, our
history, our culture. She sighs that everyone had such high hopes after the
fall of the regime. No one expected it to turn out how it has. But even in her
most depressed moments, she never wishes Saddam back. My friend's wife has
cooked a feast of Armenian foods, and I sample every plate. When I leave, she
gives me a doggy bag that will feed the Arab family that I am staying with for
days.

As I drive with my
Armenian friend back across town, we hear news of a complex attack on the
provincial council in Diyala which has left 8 killed and over 20 wounded; and
of the assassination of an Iraqi General in Baghdad.

* 

I catch up with some
Turkish friends and feast on food prepared by their Turkish cook. They tell me
that Iraqis are blaming Turkey for their water shortage and are demanding that
Turkey lets more water flow into Iraq's rivers. But relations between Turkey
and Iraq -- particularly with the Kurdistan region -- are good, largely due to
the vision of the Turkish Ambassador and the investment of the Turkish private
sector. Turkish companies are operating from north to south of Iraq and have
developed a good reputation for getting things done. It is largely Turkish
companies that have beautified the Green Zone, renovating the Republican
Palace, laying down roads and building a guest house for the Arab Summit that
never happened. Today in Iraq, Turkey is seen as the main competitor to and
balancer of Iranian influence.

* 

I take a tour of
Baghdad with a senior Iraqi official. He is an old friend from whom I have
learned so much about this country over the years. We visit old haunts. I can
clearly observe the changes that have taken place in the last nine months. The
local economy has improved. The private sector is certainly taking off. More
shops are open. New cars are on the roads. People are busy going about their
everyday affairs. Many concrete T-walls have gone. Security forces are less
visible.

As we drive along I
ask him what are his main concerns. He responds: the direction of the political
process, corruption, and assassinations. We discuss the different paths Iraq
might head along and indicators of each:

Dictatorship. Will Prime Minister Maliki and the Dawa
party be able to sink their tentacles deep enough to exert control over the
organs of state and the unofficial shadow state -- the old culture of Iraq
re-exerting itself, but with different beneficiaries? Maliki now serves as the
Minister of Defense, Interior, and National Security. There is no longer a
selection committee for promotions within the military. So those seeking
promotion, pensions, and protection cosy up to political leaders as they have
no confidence that the system itself will recognize their merits or provide for
them. Maliki has placed his people as deputies and advisers through all the
ministries. But power is too diffused in Iraq these days making it hard for
anyone to assume total control. And this goes against the Arab Spring trend
influencing the region.

Oligarchy: Will the political elites maintain the current political paralysis
but create an oligarchy, as in Russia? Iraq's political elites live in big
houses, receive good salaries and pensions, can afford private generators for
their electricity consumption, and are well guarded. They have their noses in
the trough and access to large contracts. But are the elites competent enough
to capture the State? Will the level of corruption and absence of the rule of
law make this path unlikely.

Haves versus have-nots: Will armed groups fight the State for a
share of the country's oil resources, as in Nigeria? Rumors abound that
militias are raising their heads once more, and the power of the Sadrists in
the south continues to increase through coercion and intimidation.

Democracy: The Parliament is growing in capacity, with members drafting laws and
debating issues. Meetings of Cabinet and sessions of Parliament -- albeit
edited -- are shown on TV. The media is flourishing, although there are attempts
to control journalists. But the sectarian construct of the political system and
corruption hinder the movement in this path. Perhaps in a decade or so, once
the current political class have been replaced, there will be more hope.

Civil war: Will Iraq plunge once more into sectarian conflict? While this is
always a risk, Iraq's political leaders, institutions and security forces are
stronger than they were in 2005 and all wish to avoid this direction.

We conclude that
Iraq might follow a mixture of these paths. It seems unlikely that Iraq will
avoid the 'resource curse', the paradox whereby a country with oil wealth has
less economic growth and worse development outcomes than a country with less
natural resources.

*

I watch the Iraqi
national tennis team practice. They are excellent players. What impresses me
most is how they interact with each other, offering words of congratulations or
commiserations on particular shots. I speak to them during the interval. They
are from different parts of Baghdad, are of different sects, were inspired by
their fathers to play, and are proud to represent Iraq on the international
stage.

*

I sit with a good
friend, a female member of Parliament, in a café in Baghdad. We reminisce about
2007 and how we worked together closely to help bring down the violence that
ravaged the country. It seems such a long time ago. We discuss the problems
facing the country today. How much longer will the patience of Iraqis continue,
I ask her? She tells me that the people are tired. They want electricity and
jobs. They want to eat and sleep. They want normal lives. There is injustice.
The country is rich, but the people do not see the benefits. The Iraqi people
have been so oppressed for years that we are like sheep. Iraq today is so far
away from the vision that people had after the fall of Saddam. I describe to
her my trips to Egypt and Tunisia and how people feel empowered because they
removed their regimes themselves, with little bloodshed, are debating their
constitutions, and new politicians are coming to the fore. She tells me that in
Iraq people do not feel that same sense of empowerment. They did not remove
Saddam themselves, many of the politicians who were put in power were Islamist
exiles returning from abroad, there was little public debate over the
constitution, and elections did not bring about change but kept the same
dysfunctional arrangement in place.

New narratives are
being created about life before the fall of the regime and life under
occupation. People have started to claim there was no 'Sunni-Shia' before 2003.
Many blame the Americans for introducing sectarian/ethnic quotas in the way the
Governing Council was established, and for excluding key segments of the
population. But it was the exiled Iraqi elites who advised them along this
path. And while political parties claim to not want quotas, they all fight to
maintain them. And during elections, Iraqis mostly voted along sectarian and
ethnic lines. And while Iraqis criticize corruption, they pay the bribes. The
gap between the political elites and the Iraqi people seems to be growing even
wider. Safe in the Green Zone, I hear some elites talk about "Shia power,"
while others now discuss creating a Sunni federal region. The elites have not
developed consensus on the nature of the state, nor moved towards building a
more just society, focusing too often on revenge and accumulating power rather
than on national reconciliation. And so the political elites squabble among
themselves over the spoils of the country's wealth. Each group watches the TV
channel that aligns with their bloc. The government channel portrays the
Cabinet discussing progress in their ministries over the 100-day period,
development projects across the country, beautiful scenery, happy members of
the public out shopping. In sharp contrast, Sharqiyya TV constantly criticizes
the government for lack of progress, highlights electricity shortages across
the country and how many hours a day are received from the national grid, and
shows brutality of the state security forces. While the politics are so
polarized, there will inevitably be levels of violence aimed at achieving
political outcomes, the institutions of state will remain weak, and economic
development will be hampered by the absence of the rule of law.

* 

I luncheon at the
home of another female MP who is active in promoting human rights in Iraq. I
ask her what is the way to make politicians hear the voices of the Iraqi
people? She says it is very difficult. Iraqis still do not have their basic
needs. Electricity is the most important thing for them. It is hard for them to
access the internet, to create networks on facebook, when they have so little
access to electricity. The society needs to become less militarized. Space
needs to be made for the voices of youth and women, and minorities. This is
very hard in Iraq. The Americans did not invest enough in promoting democracy,
she laments. People are too scared to demonstrate -- scared of the government
and of the terrorists.

On Friday,
people gather in Tahrir Square to demonstrate. I watch for a bit on TV. I am
initially confused as the demonstrations look nothing like what I have seen
elsewhere in the region. Sheikhs are shown demanding the death penalty for
terrorists. I discover that these are the 'pro-government' supporters bused in
from Karbala and other provinces and security guards from inside the Green Zone
who have been told to go out and demonstrate in support of Maliki. They carry
placards with a red X through a photo of Allawi. The smaller number of 'pro-democracy'
supporters are a mixed bunch of youth, communists and others, inspired by the
Arab Spring in Egypt and Tunisia to seek more freedoms. Government officials
accuse them of being Baathists and terrorists. I later hear from Western
journalists on the scene that some 'pro-democracy' demonstrators were beaten up
by plain clothed men with batons -- while the security forces stood by watching
-- and two including a woman were stabbed.

In response
to the demonstration, the Iraqiyya leader Allawi delivers a harsh speech
criticizing Maliki and the Dawa party. Allawi is regarded as the main loser
from government formation, unable to capitalize on his election victory.
Earlier in the month, there were rumors that he would agree to head the
National Council on Higher Policies (although disagreements remain over the
title of the post, and whether it would receive approval of the COR) and that
agreement was close to appointing the security ministers. But discussions have
broken off again, and relations have deteriorated even further. With the two
main blocs of State of Law and Iraqiyya unable to reach agreement and with
their leaders apparently irreconcilable, the Kurds and Sadrists play the
kingmakers.

Into this toxic mix
comes the issue of whether the U.S. forces should remain in Iraq post 2011. The
Sadrists are adamant that all U.S. forces should leave by the end of the year.
They continue to attack U.S. troops so that they can claim that they have
driven them out. They threaten to protest against the government if services do
not improve by August, and to revert back to violence if U.S. forces remain
beyond the end of the year. The rest of the political elites in private say
they wish that some U.S. forces remain to help the air force protect the air space,
the navy to protect the oil platforms, and to assist with training of the army
and provision of intelligence. However, only the Kurds seem willing to lead the
debate in public. Maliki's Dawa party has put out a statement in which Dawa
"reiterated its firm stands toward the withdrawal of all the U.S. forces
from the Iraqi land, waters, and airspace on the set time, which is the end of
this year." To gain Iranian and Sadrist support for a second term as
Prime Minister, Maliki had to promise them that there would be no extension of
U.S. forces after 2011. Maliki is probably hoping that the Parliament will vote
to approve some US military presence remaining in Iraq post 2011, so that he
will have to go along with their decision. In this way, he will continue to
balance both the United States and Iran. Events in Syria are also troubling the
elites in Iraq. If the Allawite regime falls and is replaced by a Sunni one,
then Iraq will become even more important to Iran and its buffer against the
Sunni world. This may also serve to push the trend in Iraq towards Kurdish,
Sunni, and Shia regions, all heavily influenced by different neighboring
countries.

* 

I go over to the
complex we called 'Freedom Towers', where U.S. soldiers once used to enjoy a
few days of respite away from the battlefield during their long tours. Today,
it is the headquarters of Dr Saleh Mutlak. I say to him: it is amazing to see
you here. The last time I saw you was 18 months ago in the Rashid hotel just
before you fled the country. He laughs as he puffs on his cigarette. He makes me
tell the story to his guests -- all of whom of course know it. One of the most
popular Sunni leaders in the country and joint-head of Iraqiyya, Mutlak was
barred by the de-Baathification committee from running in the national elections.
Through a deal worked in the government formation negotiations at the end of
last year, Mutlak is now the Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq. The head
of the de-Baathification committee is dead, assassinated last month. How
can anyone predict how things may turn out in Iraq?

* 

Sitting in a
restaurant in Karada, downtown Baghdad, eating pizza and drinking wine with
journalist friends, I listen to an Iraqi sing Bee Gee songs. The singer moves
me to tears. He sings with such passion, making the songs his own. I invite him
over to join us at our table. He sits down with us and as he talks the
talented, confident Singer, transforms into a fragile, damaged man. What
horrors have those eyes seen, I wonder? What is the trauma he is struggling
with? He tells us that he went to the United States for a short period in the
seventies when he was a young boy, accompanying his father who had been wounded
fighting on the Syria/Israel border and needed plastic surgery. In 2003, he had
come forward to work with the U.S. military, but quit after three months when
he had been blown up by an IED. I remember the wonderful Iraqis who had come
forward to work with the Coalition back in 2003, dreaming of building a new
democratic society -- many were killed by insurgents for collaborating with the
Occupying Authorities and many others fled the country. "I dip," the singer
tells me, bringing out his pouch of tobacco. "Disgusting habit to pick up from
American soldiers!" I scold him. He laughs. Things are slowly getting better in
Iraq, he assures me. Iraqis just want to live. It is going to take a long time
-- a very long time.

Naming the phases of the Afghan war

While Tom Ricks is away from
his blog, he has selected a few of his favorite posts to re-run. We will be
posting a few every day until he returns. This originally ran on June 6, 2011.

The
Ink Spots has a good proposal for better names for phases of the Afghan war
than "Consolidation II" and so on:

Bombing the Piss out of the
Taliban - Sept. 11, 2001 to Nov. 30, 2001
Escape from Tora Bora - Dec.
1, 2001 to Dec. 31, 2001
General Indifference - Jan.
1, 2002 to March 18, 2003
Economy of Force - March 19,
2003 to Nov. 30, 2009
The Good War - Dec. 1,
2009 to June 21, 2011
The Expensive, Disappearing
War - June 22, 2011 through a date to be determined