Michael J. Totten's Blog, page 58

Winter in Cairo

Egypt has been a military dictatorship in all but name for my entire life. That is its default condition. There never was much hope for the country after Hosni Mubarak was toppled. The army took him out, not the people. The people yearned for liberty from Mubarak, but they did not yearn for liberty as Westerners understand it. Some did, of course, but the majority didn’t. The results of last year’s parliamentary election—where radical Islamist parties beat secular parties by a whopping 2-to-1...

Russia to Send Marines to Syria?

Russia is reportedly preparing warships with marines on board to send to Syria. The U.S. has preferred to stay out of the conflict for now, but if the Syrian-Iranian axis becomes a militarized Russian-Syrian-Iranian axis, we’re likely to regret that decision. Though in the long run, Russia may regret it, as well. Does Moscow really think it’s a good idea to back Middle Eastern terrorist states?

Plugging Back In

I’ve just returned from visiting family in California where I was blessedly unplugged from the news of the world. I’ll get caught up here in a second. And I have more long form journalism that’s just about ready. Stand by.

Salafists Target Art Gallery, Police Stations

I don’t expect Tunisia’s Salafist problem to lead to an Algeria-style civil war. It could happen, but I doubt it that it will. Tunisia has a pacifistic streak in it that’s highly unusual.

Salafism, though, is an ugly beast and its adherents aren’t pacifistic at all. They are totalitarian thugs who are using force to intimidate the liberal and moderate sectors of the society. If foreign Islamists get involved here, all bets are off.

Tunisia's president on Wednesday condemned extremists after day...

Women: Beware of Egypt

I recently gave a talk about the Arab Spring at a college in the Pacific Northwest and met a young female journalism student who said she was envious that I’ve been to Cairo. She considers herself something of an Egyptologist and can’t wait to go there herself.

She was blissfully unaware of how badly women are treated in Egypt, including foreign women like herself. I’ve heard one extreme sexual harassment horror story after another from women I know who have visited Cairo. I don’t personally k...

Al Qaeda Declares War on Tunisia

Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is inciting Tunisian Islamists to rise up against the government after the ruling party Ennahda abandoned its passive-aggressive push for Islamic law and threw its support behind a secular state.

"Have you ever seen a hospital that says it's not in the business of treating the sick, or a pharmacy that says it's got nothing to do with selling medicine, or an army that says it's got no business fighting?" he asked.

"They are inventing an Islam acceptable to the...

Annan Blames Syria for Peace Plan Failure

United Nations envoy Kofi Annan couldn’t see that his peace plan for Syria was doomed before it could start, but at least he has now figured out that the fault lies with Bashar al-Assad, that a mass-murdering state sponsor of terrorism does not, will not, cannot play well with others. Can Annan please get out of the way now? What he has been up to has been no more effective than me yelling at the TV.

Lebanon Fights Itself (Again)

Sunnis and Alawites in Lebanon’s second-largest city of Tripoli are still slugging it out. They’ve been doing it for some time now. A reporter with the Guardian says he heard near-constant gunfire all night and explosions every five minutes.

At what point does fighting between sectarian militias in a country like Lebanon transition from clashes to war? I ask because I don’t know. There’s no hard and fast definition for this sort of thing. This is Lebanon we’re talking about here. Lebanese citi...

"Pakistan is a Powderkeg and Karachi is the Detonator"

I’ve plugged the Vice Guide to Travel before and I want to do it again. They really do fantastic work over there.

Vice magazine founder Suroosh Alvi went back to Pakistan and taped a five part series about the profoundly unpleasant city of Karachi that should be required viewing for journalists and American foreign policy makers who deal with Pakistan for a living. The scene where Alvi embeds with the Karachi police on a Taliban hunt in a slum packed with 4.5 million people is especially eye-o...

"It Will Be Bad for the Revolution"

Rahim Elkishky has a smart piece in Egypt’s Al Ahram arguing that liberals who think the Islamists hijacked their revolution are mistaken. The liberals, he says, “never had the numbers to carry it off.”

Egypt used to be a much more liberal place than it is now. That era was ended by Nasser. History has no rewind button. Post-Nasserism will not restore the status quo ante. Political liberalism may well be in the country’s future, but Egypt will first have to pass through an era of Islamism. It...