Bryan Caplan's Blog, page 54

A Million-Dollar Education Bet

This is too rich for my blood, but wow:

Many private college presidents are more than a little frustrated with the way journalists and politicians love to quote Clayton Christensen. The Kim B. Clark Professor of Business Administration at Harvard University, Christensen famously predicted in a 2011 book called The Innovative University that as many as half of American nonprofit private colleges would close within 10 to 15 years. Last year, Christensen said he stood by the prediction…

But Mark...

Klein on Academic Groupthink

Dan Klein provides a powerful synthesis of research on what’s wrong with left-wing domination of the humanities and social sciences.  Even if you don’t want to watch the full video, read the slides!

My own thoughts: I don’t regard left-wing domination of the humanities and social sciences as the world’s most-pressing problem, or even the world’s tenth most-pressing problem.  As I explained in The Case Against Education, educators simply aren’t very persuasive, so they do far less intellectual...

Quiggin on Our European Unemployment Bet

Here’s John Quiggin‘s reaction to the end of our ten-year European unemployment bet.

Having lost a couple of bets of this kind, I have learned the important proverbial lessons “Fools for arguments use wagers” and “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”.  In this case, I failed  to anticipate EU austerity in general, and the bloody-minded incompetence of Jean-Claude Trichet in particular. Because of this, I assumed the EU would have better macroeconomic outcomes than the US, an...

I Win My European Unemployment Bet

In 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate exceeded Europe’s for the first time in decades.  Apologists for European labor market regulation rejoiced, so I publicly bet that European unemployment would exceed U.S. unemployment over the next decade.  The original authors I targeted turned me down, even after I offered a 1 percentage-point spread.  But noted economist John Quiggin took the bait.  Our final terms:

The stake is $US100 and the agreed criterion is that, for Bryan to win, the average Euros...

Reflections on the Balan-Caplan Poverty Debate

I really enjoyed my Tuesday debate on “The Philosophy of Poverty?” with my friend David Balan.  Many thanks to GMU’s Economics Society for setting it up.  While we had a great discussion, here are a few thoughts I’d like to add.

1. In my closing statement, I claimed that we should worry about the accuracy of our moral judgments because (a) moral issues are complex, and (b) human beings throughout history have generally considered their societies to be just no matter how awful they actually we...

The Philosophy of Poverty?: My Opening Statement

Here’s my opening statement for yesterday’s poverty debate with David Balan.  Enjoy!

The world is rich, but billions of people are still poor.  What’s the morally right response?

The default view is that the government should dramatically expand redistribution programs, forcing the well-endowed – especially business and the rich – to provide a decent standard of living for everyone.  I strongly reject this default view.

Why?  Most glaringly, because the default view overlooks the fact that g...

Elizabeth Warren Bet Update

Since Elizabeth Warren has announced her Presidential candidacy, my 2017 Warren bet with my friend Ben Haller has officially activated.  He’s betting $50 against my $100 that she wins the Presidency.  When we made the bet, betting markets put her odds at 7.9%, but now they’re down to a measly 3.1%.

Of course, back in 2015 I probably would have given Trump about a 3.1% of winning, too…

 

The post Elizabeth Warren Bet Update appeared first on Econlib.

“The Philosophy of Poverty?” A Balan-Caplan Debate

Tomorrow night at GMU I’m debating my friend David Balan on “The Philosophy of Poverty?”  Hope you can make it!

The post “The Philosophy of Poverty?” A Balan-Caplan Debate appeared first on Econlib.

A Brief History of Immigration Restrictions in the USA: Comic Edition

See cartoon Alex Nowrasteh narrate “A Brief History of Immigration Restrictions in the USA” for Law & Sausages.  Highly recommend!

P.S. There are multiple pages.  Keep clicking on “Next Page” until you reach the end.

The post A Brief History of Immigration Restrictions in the USA: Comic Edition appeared first on Econlib.

Apology for a Trainwreck

The ethnographies of Oscar Lewis paint a bleak picture of lower-class life.  The thousands of pages of published interviews in books like Five Families, The Children of Sanchez, Four Men, and La Vida show a relentless trainwreck of impulsive sex, unplanned pregnancy, child neglect, child abuse, drug addiction, drunkenness, degenerate gambling, intra-family violence, near-random violence, parasitism, and gross financial mismanagement.    The picture is so bleak that I struggle to believe Lewis...